IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Now down to 71F. Cloudy/Windy Could be a very Close Call for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 78F here in Hunterdon County. Breezy, humid, and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Did not expect it to be this sunny and this warm. Partly Cloudy now and 80 Degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Up into the lower 80s here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 New tornado watch just to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Up into the lower 80s here WOW mid 50s fog and drizzle on the Island. Good luck with the squall line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 60 and fog. Actually not bad. These kinds of days are pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 The 18z NAM hammers the entire area now. Should be quite a fun night coming up, even if it stays for the most part below severe limits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 57 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Pretty sunny still. Very warm and humid out. Windy now at times as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Now down to 65F and Mostly Cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 The 18z NAM hammers the entire area now. Should be quite a fun night coming up, even if it stays for the most part below severe limits. Not everyone in this forum lives from NYC-west. 18z just some moderate showers for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Those storms in PA have gotten rather well-organized and I suspect the .50" on my point-and-click is going to be a little low. Looks like quite a bit of lightning from those storms too, wasn't so a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Reached 79 for a high up this way... Currently 75 Should be an interesting evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 We could even see some of the stronger winds get mixed down over NYC metro if the squall line catches up with the LLJ around 3z this evening. The NAM has the squall line overlapping the western edge of the LLJ as it is maxing out. That will probably be the time to watch for the strongest wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 I have noticed an increase in mid-level winds on the TPHL TDWR VAD wind profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 I have noticed an increase in mid-level winds on the TPHL TDWR VAD wind profile. There is also a good pocket of elevated instability on the 3z JFK forecast sounding if the line remains intact and lines up with the LLJ. Lifted Index: -0.14 C Risk: Thunderstorms probableLifted Index @300 mb: 3.55 CLifted Index @700 mb: -1.14 CShowalter Index: -0.28 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Not everyone in this forum lives from NYC-west. 18z just some moderate showers for LI.the high res even hits Nassau pretty hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 There is also a good pocket of elevated instability on the 3z JFK forecast sounding if the line remains intact and lines up with the LLJ. Lifted Index: -0.14 C Risk: Thunderstorms probableLifted Index @300 mb: 3.55 CLifted Index @700 mb: -1.14 CShowalter Index: -0.28 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable JFK already had a wind gust to 43mph, earlier this afternoon. Currently gusting to 37mph. The 18z NAM Bukfit shows near 1000 J/kg MUCAPE for LGA and JFK at 2z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Tornado warning for Susquehanna and Bradford Counties in Pennsylvania, right at the northernmost extent of the watch box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Reached 79 for a high up this way... Currently 75 Should be an interesting evening High was 77 over here, sitting at 71/62 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 That line is looking very impressive right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 That line is looking very impressive right now. Almost the entire thing is severe warned, check out the deep echoes around Pottsville and Lebanon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 60% chance of watch being issued: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0543 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0612 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...NJ...SERN PA...DE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 192312Z - 200045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR POTENTIAL...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...A N/S-ORIENTED SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL NY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC IS ADVANCING EWD AROUND 30 KT...AND FORECAST TO EXIT UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCHES IN THE 00Z-01Z TIME FRAME. ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE ASCENT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL COMBINED WITH INTENSE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A SPIN UP OR TWO MAY OCCUR...AND THIS MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS NOCTURNAL COOLING YIELDS DECREASING INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD MITIGATE THE SVR THREAT AND NEED FOR A WW. ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/19/2013 ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 20, 2013 Share Posted April 20, 2013 Severe Thunderstorm Watch now issued for New Jersey: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 135NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK810 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDTFOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSNJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-039-041-200300-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0135.130420T0010Z-130420T0300Z/NJ. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED AREATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTONCAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLANDEASTERN UNION ESSEX GLOUCESTERHUDSON HUNTERDON MERCERMIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRISOCEAN PASSAIC SALEMSOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2013 Share Posted April 20, 2013 Not really much support for these storms being severe at the moment..but I understand the watch with the outside chance of a few severe wind gusts. Definitely a low probability event for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2013 Share Posted April 20, 2013 Nice job by the NAM last night with the forecast radar at 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2013 Share Posted April 20, 2013 Severe thunderstorm warning for Orange County through 930pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 20, 2013 Share Posted April 20, 2013 Not really much support for these storms being severe at the moment..but I understand the watch with the outside chance of a few severe wind gusts. Definitely a low probability event for sure. I could see a bunch of storms being strong storms, while not quite reaching Severe Criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 20, 2013 Share Posted April 20, 2013 I think the line will hold up as being strong, given the elevated instability and low-level shear, but I don't see much in the way of severe criteria with this, outside of more synoptic-scale LLJ winds being mixed down near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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