Quincy Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Due to the timing of a cold front and marginal to no instability, this does not look like a severe weather scenario. However, some strong winds associated with the frontal passage are definitely possible. Temperatures can rise into the 70's on Friday, assuming the region gets at least some partial sunshine. Current thinking is isolated showers/storms Friday night and then heavy rain and thunder for a time overnight. Clearing out during the day on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 If the NAM is correct we will be dealing with a decaying squall line around midnight tonight west of the city. We have broken out in full sunshine which should allow for at least some slight instability to build in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 If the NAM is correct we will be dealing with a decaying squall line around midnight tonight west of the city. We have broken out in full sunshine which should allow for at least some slight instability to build in. The NAM is still showing this, although there is some question of how the line can hold together once it reaches the Appalachians. This is especially true due to the nighttime time-frame of this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 The NAM is still showing this, although there is some question of how the line can hold together once it reaches the Appalachians. This is especially true due to the nighttime time-frame of this happening. He posted that yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 The 12z NAM today shows potential for elevated t-storms and wind gusts over 50mph for coastal areas tomorrow night. MUCAPES 500-1000 J/kg and 925-950mb winds 50-70kts, from LGA east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 The 12z NAM today shows potential for elevated t-storms and wind gusts over 50mph for coastal areas tomorrow night. MUCAPES 500-1000 J/kg and 925-950mb winds 50-70kts, from LGA east. That's a pretty impressive squall line for the area especially for that time of day in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 I wonder if this is any indication as to how this upcoming Summer is going to be as far as severe weather activity in the area. Last year was great and we ALMOST had a derecho! If this year is going to be better, bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 I think the severe weather threat is very limited...you could even argue that the threat for thunder is limited east of NYC as well. The timing of the front is poor and we're holding on to an elevated instability axis over Western NJ through 06z...so there could be some embedded storms as the front comes through. But I think this will be a burst of heavy rain with some rumbles of thunder and very limited severe weather reports as far as strong winds go. You can see the effect that the S winds have on Long Island with the thermal gradient east of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 That's a pretty impressive squall line for the area especially for that time of day in April Just a reminder that you are not allowed to post images from paid sites such as SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 Just a reminder that you are not allowed to post images from paid sites such as SV. sorry my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 I think the severe weather threat is very limited...you could even argue that the threat for thunder is limited east of NYC as well. The timing of the front is poor and we're holding on to an elevated instability axis over Western NJ through 06z...so there could be some embedded storms as the front comes through. But I think this will be a burst of heavy rain with some rumbles of thunder and very limited severe weather reports as far as strong winds go. You can see the effect that the S winds have on Long Island with the thermal gradient east of NYC Agree-looks like the marine layer will be a problem for eastern areas. Although, the last T-storm event was able to make it to the coast, the instability doesn't look too promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 I think the severe weather threat is very limited...you could even argue that the threat for thunder is limited east of NYC as well. The timing of the front is poor and we're holding on to an elevated instability axis over Western NJ through 06z...so there could be some embedded storms as the front comes through. But I think this will be a burst of heavy rain with some rumbles of thunder and very limited severe weather reports as far as strong winds go. You can see the effect that the S winds have on Long Island with the thermal gradient east of NYC The NAM has elevated CAPE, increasing for eastern areas, with a strengthening southerly LLJ, early tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 The NAM has elevated CAPE, increasing for eastern areas, with a strengthening southerly LLJ, early tomorrow night. True, however with a MALR, poor lapse rates, and some inversion likely, I doubt any wind gusts 50mph+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 The RAP is really warm this afternoon..south flow still kills Long Island but torches much of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 The RAP is really warm this afternoon..south flow still kills Long Island but torches much of NJ rap_april19.gif Are we going to be able to clear out though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Are we going to be able to clear out though? I would think so once the winds shift to southerly. The NAM shows this pretty well. Notice how the southerly and maybe slightly SSE component to the wind keeps a low cloud bank near the shores, but only high clouds over NJ which allows for the big warmup ahead of the approaching front in a small warm sector. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_6z/rad15.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 6z NAM has steep 700-500mb lapse rates and strong winds below the inversion around 900mb around 0z over LGA. The southerly wind events tend overperform in our area, anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Both 0z SPC WRF and 6z NAM show potential for wind gusts near 60mph over LI and Jersey shores tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 I have an inclination there will be a borderline severe if not severe outflow boundary (due to winds) across NYC/LI that outraces any updrafts from a squall line associated with the front in NJ late this evening/tonight. This event seems to have that kind of signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 The high res 12z NAM has a pretty severe looking squall line hammering most of NJ and perhaps as far east as NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 19, 2013 Author Share Posted April 19, 2013 SPC has increased the severe threat to "slight" for western NJ and extreme southern NY:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Definitely a warm almost muggy type day out there. Models seem to be in line with mostly around .5" of rain tonight but would probably be higher for areas that get some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 19, 2013 Author Share Posted April 19, 2013 Best threat of storms for this area looks to be NW NJ. Strong winds the biggest threat, although SPC is bullish with 5% tornado threat there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Best threat of storms for this area looks to be NW NJ. Strong winds the biggest threat, although SPC is bullish with 5% tornado threat there. Yeah a 5% tornado area by me is like a 15% hatched box in the plains lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Pretty disgusting out right now, still have strong cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 We're really clearing out here now and visible satellite confirms that this continues to spread north and east. Noticing an increase in surface based and elevated cape on SPC mesoanalysis which is juxtaposed with some modestly favorable 0-6km bulk shear. We've got several hours before the best forcing arrives...but not a bad trend so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 It's already up to 75F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Tornado watch issued for MD, DC, VA and the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 Tornado watch issued for MD, DC, VA and the Carolinas Where the instability is at its' best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.