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2013 GLOV Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago WX

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Yeah, how can you not love these patterns. MCS after MCS running ESE along the front. 

 

attachicon.gifgfsUS_500_spd_132.gif

 

attachicon.gifgfsUS_sfc_30mbdewp_132.gif

 

 

GFS/Euro agree on a belt of 75-85 kt 500 mb winds running through the Upper Midwest/Lakes during the early week. Good stuff for 2nd week of June standards.

 

Yeah that is some pretty impressive stuff there, certainly would give credence to a upper end potential if instability can be realized. 

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GFS/Euro agree on a belt of 75-85 kt 500 mb winds running through the Upper Midwest/Lakes during the early week. Good stuff for 2nd week of June standards.

 

Am I the only one that immediately thought this when I saw the 12z GFS' H5 pattern at 132 hrs.

 

060600.png

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best pattern

DVN  already throwing around the D word....

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

314 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND FAST ZONAL FLOW

AND STALLED FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTS NEAR NORMAL WEATHER.

HIGHS 76-82F AND LOW POPS OF MAINLY PM SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAT

BEGINS TO BUILD IN SOUTH PLAINS WITH INCREASING RISK OF STRONG MCS

NEAR OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST FOR LATER SHIFTS TO REASSESS BY WEDNESDAY

AT THE LATEST AND PROBABLY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RISING RISK OF

BOW ECHOES AND POSSIBLY EVEN DERECHO CONVECTIVE EVENT/S/ NEARBY.

NICHOLS

 

 

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The comparisons between the 12z GFS and even the 12z Euro to a degree and 5 June 2010 are absolutely uncanny, but something important to remember about that day is just how mesoscale-driven it was and how mesoscale factors are really what made that outbreak so prolific across nrn/cntl IL and nrn/cntl IN.  We knew the parameters would be in place for strong tornadoes that night, but it was a toss-up as to how discrete the cells were going to be.  So even if that patterns holds going into Monday (doubtful), we wouldn't really know until initiation time what we'd be dealing with.

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00z GFS is pretty amazing in the med/long term. Big difference compared to the May setups is that capping issues look more pronounced in the Plains. Too early to go off the deep end with speculating but I get the sense that there could be a high end event of some kind within the next week or so.

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DVN  already throwing around the D word....

Same long-term forecaster in their afternoon AFD today, but he's sticking by it:

 

PATTERN INCREASING FAVORABLE FOR A VIGOROUS SUMMERTIME "RING OF FIRE"  REGIME WITH MCS SYSTEMS OF GOOD BOWING SEGMENTS AND EVEN DERECHO RISK  NEAR OR OVER AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS WITH RISK OF HEAVY RAINS.    NICHOLS
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Would anyone mind explaining the meaning behind the 'ring of fire'? I'm unfamiliar with the term.

 

Scratch that Google does it again. For others wondering:

 

 

 

RING OF FIRE / CUT-OFF HIGH

*High pressure is common across the Southeast US in the summer time. The basic pattern of the Ring of Fire is show below:


ring.jpg

This high pressure cell, which is an extension of the Bermuda-Azores high, can become fixed over the same general region for several days, especially if the jet stream is weak and with a lack of Canadian cool fronts. The air is most stable at the center of the high pressure. At the edges of the high pressure, the cap will be weak enough to allow afternoon convection to occur. This afternoon convection makes a ring around the high pressure cell. The afternoon thunderstorms will also rotate in a clockwise manner around the high pressure cell. A common thunderstorm pattern in a Ring of Fire episode would be to have thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast and an arc of storms from the Great Plains into the Great Lake states.

The Ring of Fire is originally a geology term which describes the occurrence of earthquakes and volcanoes as being on the edge of plate boundaries. In meteorology, the thunderstorms are synonymous with fire.
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Chance for severe in Illinois on Sunday if we can get the instability some of the models are showing.  12z/18z NAM have a corridor of over 2000j/kg cape in the warm sector, while the GFS barely has 500j/kg.  Instability hinges on how much leftover crap there is from the overnight stuff.  Chances are there will be at least some, so a middle ground between the NAM/GFS is probably the best guess at this point.  If instability ends up similar to the NAM then this could be a decent little setup over parts of Illinois. 

 

18z 4kmNAM 21z sun.

 

rad54.gif

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00z GFS is pretty amazing in the med/long term. Big difference compared to the May setups is that capping issues look more pronounced in the Plains. Too early to go off the deep end with speculating but I get the sense that there could be a high end event of some kind within the next week or so.

From Mr Ryan's  IND AFD this AM

 

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A

STRONGER WAVE ALOFT TRACKING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE

REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES

THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF SIGNS POINTING TO

DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TO IMPACT THE REGION AS COMBINATION OF A

MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL

JET SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE

FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES TO BE WORKED OUT

AMONGST THE EXTENDED MODELS...BUT REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITH HIGH

CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE

WAVE ALOFT/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...UPPER RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO

BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL

FALL BACK INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP

ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT A RETURN INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY WITH MID

LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING ONCE AGAIN.

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GRR also starting to bring up the D-word

 

 

12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST. SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD BE CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF AN MCS OR PROGRESSIVE
DERECHO FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY THEN PROPAGATING EAST SOUTHEAST. THEN A SFC HIGH WITH FAIR
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 290

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

205 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

SOUTHWEST INDIANA

WESTERN KENTUCKY

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL

900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

PADUCAH KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...TSTMS FORMING ALONG LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS ATTM

EXTENDING NNE FROM NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL TO JUST E OF STL TO JUST W

OF SPRINGFIELD IL EXPECTED INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NNE INTO

MORE STRONGLY-HEATED...MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT. MODERATE/LARGELY

UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP SHEAR...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED

WITH VORT LOBE MOVING E AROUND BASE OF IA/MO UPR LOW...SUGGEST

STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE BANDS...WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS

POSING A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND

PERHAPS A TORNADO.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.

A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION

VECTOR 22030.

...CORFIDI

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY  
335 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013  
   
.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON
 
   
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.
 
 
..REMARKS..  
 
0300 PM TORNADO 5 SW FRANKLIN 36.68N 86.64W  
06/10/2013 SIMPSON KY TRAINED SPOTTER  
 
TORNADO. ONE HOUSE DESTROYED.  
 

 
THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS LOGAN AND SIMPSON 
COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY.

 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY

251 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

 

* UNTIL 310 PM CDT

 

* AT 249 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORGANTOWN...AND MOVING

  EAST AT 25 MPH.

 

  HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

 

  

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  MORGANTOWN...DUNBAR...LEETOWN...YOUNGTOWN...NEEDMORE AND WOODBURY.

 

 

 

 

 

LAT...LON 3725 8684 3724 8661 3713 8662 3710 8664

      3715 8687

TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 281DEG 20KT 3718 8677

 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED

HAIL...<.75IN

 

$$

 

RJS

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