DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I was just going to say the same thing but I say it every storm Hey, don't be afraid to analyze it, only way to get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hey, don't be afraid to analyze it, only way to get better. I've found predicting ahead in model runs has about a 22% success rate overall on the forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I've found predicting ahead in model runs has about a 22% success rate overall on the forums. It also is derived from faulty analysis to begin with half the time, you must take that into account... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I've found predicting ahead in model runs has about a 22% success rate overall on the forums. 23% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It also is derived from faulty analysis to begin with half the time, you must take that into account... You are one of my favorite posters on this board. Please post more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Looks like its snowing by 10pm per 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I've found predicting ahead in model runs has about a 22% success rate overall on the forums. Has a lot to do with not reading the model correctly to begin with. As with all things modeling ... crap in = crap out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 tomorrow night looks better on the NAM than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You are one of my favorite posters on this board. Please post more. I fully believed you until the emoticon at the end, now I'm going to need some clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Has a lot to do with not reading the model correctly to begin with. As with all things modeling ... crap in = crap out Exactly. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 23% 22.49% on last measure - Ian remains correct.,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 tomorrow night looks better on the NAM than 18z Looks good before midnight actually compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nam is further north with the precip but 850s are a bit warmer. Edit: -6c is further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I fully believed you until the emoticon at the end, now I'm going to need some clarification. No really. Love your analysis!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 the lack of ne progress on the precip shield tomorrow night is maddening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 As others have began to state, nice look on the NAM tomorrow night, a time where precip would be much more invited. h5 axis will be the cause for some radar hallucinations most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nam is further north with the precip but 850s are a bit warmer. Edit: -6c is further north.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 definitely north with the precip shield out to the west and it is finally making progress to the east by 9z tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Its a NAMing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 lots of precip on the map by 33 hrs the coastal must be taking over a wee bit earlier, which, if true, will help immensely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Full on hardcore NAMing as you guys call it. My earlier prediction is right as the coastal tucks in a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 If its snowing like that at night 2 inches will be doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 rock and roll time come 36 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_036_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Full on hardcore NAMing as you guys call it. My earlier prediction is right as the coastal tucks in a bit better. look how far west the blue is showing up on the 36 hr map http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Wow what an outlier nam is. Coastal hugger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 youzers http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_036_850_temp_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 youzers http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_036_850_temp_ht.gif That is an awesome image, certainly not sore on the eyes. h85 location is key, and though this is the NAM, something like this isn't entirely out of the question. It's one of those times where the NAM might not mean much, but you of course want it to show the biggest hit possible over something less than desirable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 .8 DCA by 12z Monday with more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 youzers http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_036_850_temp_ht.gif s++ for phin http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_036_700_rh_ht.gif nam coup lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 That is an awesome image, certainly not sore on the eyes. h85 location is key, and though this is the NAM, something like this isn't entirely out of the question. It's one of those times where the NAM might not mean much, but you of course want it to show the biggest hit possible over something less than desirable. yes, it may not be right very often, but the NAM rarely disappoints this weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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