PAPPG Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 When was the last time the SREFs outperformed the globals? (am curious) This is interesting. I recall the last predicted "big storm" a few weeks ago had the global and forecast for 4-8" in this area, while the SREF showed next to nothing. We received next to nothing and the forecast was a bust. I wish I could put an exact date on it. It was either a thursday or friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Canadian cuts precip pretty markedly on the 12z run. Still wetter than GFS/Euro but it does have less QPF than last night's run. 0z left, 12z right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 This is interesting. I recall the last predicted "big storm" a few weeks ago had the global and forecast for 4-8" in this area, while the SREF showed next to nothing. We received next to nothing and the forecast was a bust. I wish I could put an exact date on it. It was either a thursday or friday... This is off the top of my head so I might be off an inch or two on the mean but... 3/7 - SREF mean was 4-5" 24 hours out. 2/8 -- SREF mean was 5" 24 hours out. Both were swings and misses locally. SREF's sucked less badly on 2/8 than the NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro follows the lead of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 When was the last time the SREFs outperformed the globals? (am curious) With a big event, I don't even remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 GFS/EC blend back home yields... nothing. No accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Figured I should sneak in an initial forecast before going into work today. More of the same as far as sharp gradients and low-level temperature issues are concerned. Also, March. 20130324-25_MAsnowInitial.png Further discussion, though you all probably know how it is already: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/16/entry-90-mid-atlantic-snow-forecast-for-march-24-25-initial/ you've been one of the more accurate forecasters for us this year. Doubt that will change with this storm, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Pull the plug on the NAM and save some electricity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Pull the plug on the NAM and save some electricity I don't think I have seen a model so consistently bad before. Its incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Just back from Florida to catch one last marginal event. Timing doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 When was the last time the SREFs outperformed the globals? (am curious) I said fwiw. I understand how you hate certain models, plus the fact you argued heavily with earthlight about no costal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Pull the plug on the NAM and save some electricity It was the first to pick up on the inverted trough Idea a few weeks ago with EC following it a day later. Plus I hear many of the EC ensemble members are tucked like the NAM and the mean is more tucked as well just not the ridiculous QPF tropical storm bomb the NAM gives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I said fwiw. I understand how you hate certain models, plus the fact you argued heavily with earthlight about no costal storm. Saying the SREF's have been crap isn't hating them. Its a fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I said fwiw. I understand how you hate certain models, plus the fact you argued heavily with earthlight about no costal storm. Please point out where I said there would be no coastal storm. I admittedly called him out for acting like a weenie in the NYC thread with the whole "it's only a matter of time" crap. By the way, I wasn't calling you out on the SREF's...I was curious when I asked it...I went back and dug up info for Philly with the last two storms after the fact. Don't take offense to me asking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Please point out where I said there would be no coastal storm. I admittedly called him out for acting like a weenie in the NYC thread with the whole "it's only a matter of time" crap. You're a braver man than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 You're a braver man than me. I was feisty last Sunday...damn Irish beers I was drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It seems like we are getting reverse NAM-ed. As of 42 hours on the 18z (or near sunrise on Monday), light precip has just barely commenced at PHL and the Southern half of NJ... meaning that, verbatim, we will have the potential for approximately 0.0" of snow on the ground when the sun rises and commences melting anything frozen that falls. ....then again, 45 and 48 are borderline pornographic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Big shift southeast on the low track with the 18Z NAM. Towards the GFS/EC consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Gfs is north.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county048.gif rgem http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=198224 Euro looks weird to me, track not much different then the nam but keeps all meaningful precip close to the center..U would think snj would get a good amount of precip with a storm just off the coast of DEL..(wunderground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro looks weird to me, track not much different then the nam but keeps all meaningful precip close to the center..U would think snj would get a good amount of precip with a storm just off the coast of DEL..(wunderground) 18Z GFS still has BL issues for I-95 such that a coating is the most reasonable forecast. As far as the EC precip tucked close to the low... see Boxing Day and the epic screwjob experienced by the NW NJ and Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 TWC hugging the nam? ImageUploadedByTapatalk1364052622.939634.jpg Just wow! Interesting it is highlighting Monday yet the text at the bottom says 'potential for blizzard Wednesday'. Oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Gfs is north.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county048.gif rgem http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=198224 Euro looks weird to me, track not much different then the nam but keeps all meaningful precip close to the center..U would think snj would get a good amount of precip with a storm just off the coast of DEL..(wunderground) It has to do with the models differences in handling the confluence and the ull. Track is generally agreed upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I don't use the gfs for temps, i like to use the nam, feel it does a better job with dynamic cooling..18z drops temps to 32 right along the shore during heavy precip..(according to bufkit warehouse).. THE GFS THERMALLY SPEAKING HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE AIRMASS AND TODAY MIGHT BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE GFS MOS WASCLOSER TO MAX TEMPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I don't use the gfs for temps, i like to use the nam, feel it does a better job with dynamic cooling..18z drops temps to 32 right along the shore during heavy precip..(according to bufkit warehouse).. The problem is that the NAM is almost certainly overdoing the precip. Ask the folks in DC how the dynamically cooled NAM profiles worked out with Snoquester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I don't use the gfs for temps, i like to use the nam, feel it does a better job with dynamic cooling..18z drops temps to 32 right along the shore during heavy precip..(according to bufkit warehouse).. Probably not a good idea in this case. Yes, the NAM can pick up on dynamic cooling better than the GFS, but that is ONLY if the QPF/precip rates verify. Considering the NAM has overdone the QPF in basically every event this winter, I would be hard-pressed to go strictly with the NAM temps. A blend of some sort of the Euro/GFS/NAM for temps would be the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I was going by the 18z gfs which shows a little over 1" of precip, not much different then the nam 1.11"..I would think getting .5+ in 6 hrs is sufficient enough to cool the column..It's hard to use the euro when it show's no precip. it's obviously going to be warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I would think getting .5+ in 6 hrs is sufficient enough to cool the column. Yeah they thought that in DC too... didn't work out too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I was going by the 18z gfs which shows a little over 1" of precip, not much different then the nam 1.11"..I would think getting .5+ in 6 hrs is sufficient enough to cool the column..It's hard to use the euro when it show's no precip. it's obviously going to be warmer.. I'm thinking the Euro QPF is more correct, anyway. GFS has been noticeably wetter than what has verified with these recent storms in the Mid-Atlantic, and even the Euro was too wet in some places despite being the driest model. I'm very skeptical of the 1"+ QPF totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Latest forecast from Wxsim for NW Chester County PA with the blended GFS/NAM have a lite mix arriving by 11pm tomorrow nite with a temp at 38.9. A mix most of the night slowly changing to all snow and becoming moderate by 7am and then heavy snow from 8a, through 2pm snow tapering to moderate by 5pm and ending by 9pm. Temps remaining between 32.9 and 33.1 during the entire day with between 6" to 9" of snow in the hills of Southeast PA above 650 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Too bad this has to occur in the heat of the spring sun angel. We will need serious rates to accumulate such as April 3rd 2003 to have any chance of accumulating past 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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