ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think it was eduggs the other day who was poopooing this event and saying that you can't count on a weenie NORLUN band for heavy snows. I tried to tell him that synoptically this inverted trough would look much better for a larger area. Yeah it seems a lot of people only remember the busted norlun events...this wasn't a norlun event. It was an inverted trough (a norlun is a specific type of inverted trough...a special case...for those who don't know) with a lot of synoptic support. We've had some pretty solid events from inverted troughs. They still aren't easy to forecast but they are better than trying to forecast a more purely norlun instability trough....and they produce much wider areas of moderate to heavy snow. March 12, 2005 was an inverted trough event here that produced nearly a foot and widespread warning totals in SNE. The coastal kind of escaped and upper air came in just on it's heels and saved the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yeah it seems a lot of people only remember the busted norlun events...this wasn't a norlun event. It was an inverted trough (a norlun is a specific type of inverted trough...a special case...for those who don't know) with a lot of synoptic support. We've had some pretty solid events from inverted troughs. They still aren't easy to forecast but they are better than trying to forecast a more purely norlun instability trough....and they produce much wider areas of moderate to heavy snow. March 12, 2005 was an inverted trough event here that produced nearly a foot and widespread warning totals in SNE. The coastal kind of escaped and upper air came in just on it's heels and saved the day. Heck 12/20/07 was an inv trough too.That was widespread snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think it was eduggs the other day who was poopooing this event and saying that you can't count on a weenie NORLUN band for heavy snows. I tried to tell him that synoptically this inverted trough would look much better for a larger area. Yeah, I remember that, And socks tried to reinforce those thoughts last night to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Heck 12/20/07 was an inv trough too.That was widespread snows. Yeah, that def had a bit more norlun in it though...moreso than this one anyway...but it was more widespread than a narrow band, March 2, 1996 was another good example of an inverted trough with the coastal way offshore well outside the 40/70 benchmark that produced widesprerad heavy snow for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Very light snow still falling here and there is a bit over 1" of snow OTG, 29F. Pixie dust still coming down... 1 inch total here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yeah it seems a lot of people only remember the busted norlun events...this wasn't a norlun event. It was an inverted trough (a norlun is a specific type of inverted trough...a special case...for those who don't know) with a lot of synoptic support. We've had some pretty solid events from inverted troughs. They still aren't easy to forecast but they are better than trying to forecast a more purely norlun instability trough....and they produce much wider areas of moderate to heavy snow. March 12, 2005 was an inverted trough event here that produced nearly a foot and widespread warning totals in SNE. The coastal kind of escaped and upper air came in just on it's heels and saved the day. That was key, This was not strictly a norlun, Those are where you hope you geet lucky enough to end up under the firehose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 That was key, This was not strictly a norlun, Those are where you hope you geet lucky enough to end up under the firehose lol yeah, Jan 2011 had a memorable Norlun in SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Folks have short memories and they are quick to point out the phailed trough from a couple weeks back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 How on God's Green Earth did they do so well downsloping from all directions? That's hard to believe. I think you have a higher total then Plymouth this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Folks have short memories and they are quick to point out the phailed trough from a couple weeks back Its understandable...nobody likes failed forecasts. I have had to suffer through the same issues with myself when I made some bad forecasts. Its hard to forget them. The same sentiment was prevalent before the blizzard earlier this month too...even many of us mets (including me) was skeptical of the Euro blizzard solution even after like 3-4 runs in a row when other guidance wasn't biting. We kept remembering the storms that didn't pan out and that the Euro showed a couple other phantoms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 How on God's Green Earth did they do so well downsloping from all directions? That's hard to believe. For some weenie fun, here are a few of our higher coop totals that month. 78.9" Rumford, ME 83.2 York Pond, NH 88.3" Long Falls Dam, ME 89.0" Harris Station, ME 172.8" at the top of Mount Washington Definitely noticeable the prevailing flow that month. These are all sites (besides the rockpile) that have high terrain directly to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 We squeaked out a half inch from a last gasp band tonight. That's a half inch more than I thought we'd get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think it was eduggs the other day who was poopooing this event and saying that you can't count on a weenie NORLUN band for heavy snows. I tried to tell him that synoptically this inverted trough would look much better for a larger area. I was downplaying for SNE. Felt the coastal would miss SE and the BL would taint Sat night. Told Will I would go a little lower than his numbers and would go low for BOS. Favored the northern ski country. The jackpot zone was a little higher than I expected, but the spatial coverage was right on. I think I was right to downplay when many people were starting their minimum at 6". You lucked out, but looking at the snow reports, not everyone did. You can't count on mesocale features for widespread heavy snow. You just can't. It can not be modeled well enough yet to determine who gets hit and who misses. I never referred to this setup as a weenie norlun band. I argued for a more conservative forecast. And when you compare what I was saying to the maps from 2 days ago, that seems like the right way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 A lot of poo pooing from areas not getting snow. Boo hoo. How much did you get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Its understandable...nobody likes failed forecasts. I have had to suffer through the same issues with myself when I made some bad forecasts. Its hard to forget them. The same sentiment was prevalent before the blizzard earlier this month too...even many of us mets (including me) was skeptical of the Euro blizzard solution even after like 3-4 runs in a row when other guidance wasn't biting. We kept remembering the storms that didn't pan out and that the Euro showed a couple other phantoms. Yeah, The blizzard, The Euro was rock solid for those 3-4 runs and then when it continued, That's when it really started getting many's attention, As before that it had been almost human on a few events so there was some doubt's early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I was downplaying for SNE. Felt the coastal would miss SE and the BL would taint Sat night. Told Will I would go a little lower than his numbers and would go low for BOS. Favored the northern ski country. The jackpot zone was a little higher than I expected, but the spatial coverage was right on. I think I was right to downplay when many people were starting their minimum at 6". You lucked out, but looking at the snow reports, not everyone did. You can't count on mesocale features for widespread heavy snow. You just can't. It can not be modeled well enough yet to determine who gets hit and who misses. I never referred to this setup as a weenie norlun band. I argued for a more conservative forecast. And when you compare what I was saying to the maps from 2 days ago, that seems like the right way to go. I think my 5-9/6-10 worked out very well for the ORH hills. I didn't expect much BL issues because of elevation and that is how it worked out. I agreed with you that lower down should be cautious. And FYI, Scott was poo-pooing this event for BOS for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 BOS, or any coastal area for that matter never really stood a chance with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 3/4 last night1/4 today, why? I didn't get squat last night(or it fell and melted while I slep which is totally possible). Just surprised a few miles east towards you and you got snow last night. I did just go outside and see that I got about 1/4" tonight (had not been outside since 6:00 or so). All together about 1/2" from this HUGE event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 How much did you get? Approaching 2". Pretty much as expected, but I did not see the reason to be so down for area in Maine and NH on down to ORH. This wasn't mesoscale, you had larger scale synoptic features driving the snow....the inv trough was only part of the puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm currently in Lowell and my driveway had no more than 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Eduggs, why don't you just say " Hey Will that was a good forecast you had..I was wrong." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Socks should pull his striped socks over his head too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Approaching 2". Pretty much as expected, but I did not see the reason to be so down for area in Maine and NH on down to ORH. This wasn't mesoscale, you had larger scale synoptic features driving the snow....the inv trough was only part of the puzzle. I told my buddy in Dorcester to expect 2" so now I feel good. Dedham is at about 2" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think my 5-9/6-10 worked out very well for the ORH hills. I didn't expect much BL issues because of elevation and that is how it worked out. I agreed with you that lower down should be cautious. And FYI, Scott was poo-pooing this event for BOS for days Your call worked out well locally. Scott's insinuation was that people (possible myself included) were poo pooing an event because they were not in the party. I have missed most of the snow since December and this is the first decent threat that I argued for lower than consensus. I think it was the right call here. Temps and moisture barely came together for some, and it worked out nicely. But this was not the widespread heavy snow for Mass that many were calling for a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I told my buddy in Dorcester to expect 2" so now I feel good. Dedham is at about 2" as well. Nice. I think I'm like 1.8 right now. Still light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 ...WORCESTER COUNTY... STERLING 9.1 1031 PM 2/24 GENERAL PUBLIC BOYLSTON 8.3 618 PM 2/24 TRAINED SPOTTER HOLDEN 7.0 920 PM 2/24 TRAINED SPOTTER LEOMINSTER 7.0 938 PM 2/24 TRAINED SPOTTER WESTMINSTER 6.5 629 PM 2/24 HAM RADIO WORCESTER 6.5 701 PM 2/24 AIRPORT HUBBARDSTON 6.5 942 PM 2/24 HAM RADIO ASHBURNHAM 6.5 514 PM 2/24 COOP OBSERVER GARDNER 6.0 812 PM 2/24 PUBLIC SHREWSBURY 5.8 657 PM 2/24 PUBLIC TEMPLETON 5.2 944 PM 2/24 NONE EAST TEMPLETON 4.2 714 PM 2/24 NONE MILFORD 3.3 1005 PM 2/24 NONE LEICESTER 3.2 119 PM 2/24 PUBLIC I think 5-9/6-10 looked like a good forecast for the ORH hills. Esp since this report is not final as most totals will be bumped up before the final report. I'm not trying be confrontational with eduggs as he made some reasonable points about going that high for the ORH hills, I just disagreed and thought they wouldn't be much of a factor here, and much more of a factor lower down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm currently in Lowell and my driveway had no more than 1.5". In Snowell? shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Your call worked out well locally. Scott's insinuation was that people (possible myself included) were poo pooing an event because they were not in the party. I have missed most of the snow since December and this is the first decent threat that I argued for lower than consensus. I think it was the right call here. Temps and moisture barely came together for some, and it worked out nicely. But this was not the widespread heavy snow for Mass that many were calling for a few days ago. Well you and Socks share that common denominator and regardless, it wasn't the right logic that you threw out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Your call worked out well locally. Scott's insinuation was that people (possible myself included) were poo pooing an event because they were not in the party. I have missed most of the snow since December and this is the first decent threat that I argued for lower than consensus. I think it was the right call here. Temps and moisture barely came together for some, and it worked out nicely. But this was not the widespread heavy snow for Mass that many were calling for a few days ago. That's exactly what it was though...a local call. I didn't forecast that for the coastal plain. You told me to go lower and that ORH does well on thump snows, not so much this type of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 When I was younger it seemed like Albany was always the jackpot for winter storms... now it seems to be ORH. Was it just me, or did Albany have a string of good storms in the late 90s and early 2000s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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