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Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

Dsnowx53

By Dsnowx53,
in New York City Metro

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

This week has been brutal. Everyday I am hooked on the models because with the pattern I feel eventually we'll get a major threat, yet everyday all we get is a giant ULL with no surface reflection ha. Maybe tonight is the night! 

This winter it's impossible to get excited unless the storm's on your doorstep. The 2/8 blizzard was a tortuous and agonizing 4 days of tracking when we were on the tightrope the whole time. That's how storms usually work out for our area.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

NIce little trend on the 00z GFS day 7...Aint gonna cut it but something to keep an eye on.

 

The Ull moved out of the way at 120. It was still squashing the heights on this run though. It's good to see a storm develop on the GFS,even though it stay offshore. We need the ULL to get out of the way quicker. Not a bad run.

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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

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Yeah, this run definitely showed improvements. The PNA ridge was more meridional, which allowed the heights to respond downstream a bit more. Also, the ULL was quicker to get out of the way. It still squashed the Atlantic heights, but it would not have taken many changes to produce a stronger solution.

 

If the ULL were where it was at 159 hours 12 hours earlier (at hour 147 instead), then I think this run would have been a MECS. Regardless, there is actually a decent surface reflection, which is nice to see.  

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

There is ZERO on the Euro to even be a bit excited about over the next 10 days  and 15 if one looks at the Control . Its just not 1 run , its been showing the trough axis too far East for our benefit now throughout the entire weekend .

 

I choose to ignore anything the GFS  past 5 days . There really maybe nothing here as Its possible its just cold and dry 

It doesnt matter that the PNA is pos and that the NAO is neg , its just translating to shunting downstream ,as the trough axis

is just wrong .

 

After this cold stretch that may last thru mid March  , I am starting to think severe weather isn`t too far behind , and that for Winter , it may not be midnite yet  , but it may be 1130 .

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

6z GFS shows a really active pattern unfolding

The issue my man that it may look diff by 12z. Just not a lot of continuity w this model. Without the euro honking. The pattern doesnt yield a lot of promise for me. Its getting late u really r playin beat the clock now

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

The problem with the March 3rd - 4th system is the trough axis is to far east which forces the storm on modeling to develop off the southeast coast then move too far offshore up the coast. The March 6th - 7th system is of more interest because the negative NAO is building further south and west across southern Canada which also brings the trough axis further west so the new storm on the day 10 Euro develops further west in the deep south and then swings around into the southeast with a nice block in place - so we have to watch the Euro especially in future runs to see if the March 6th - 7th system is for real.........

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Weathergun

Weathergun

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The problem with the March 3rd - 4th system is the trough axis is to far east which forces the storm on modeling to develop off the southeast coast then move too far offshore up the coast. The March 6th - 7th system is of more interest because the negative NAO is building further south and west across southern Canada which also brings the trough axis further west so the new storm on the day 10 Euro develops further west in the deep south and then swings around into the southeast with a nice block in place - so we have to watch the Euro especially in future runs to see if the March 6th - 7th system is for real.........

 

The March 6-7 system is somewhat dependent on March 3-4 system tracking far enough west, to enhance the -NAO and 50/50 low pattern. Which forces the trough axis farther west. If the March 3-4 is going too far out to sea, the 6-7 will likely go out to sea too. This same scenario may play out for other threats that follow closely behind, as well. Unless we get the West Coast ridge to position itself nicely enough, cause these dig and phase further west.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

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The blocking and pna will stay but time is ticking. Every day going forward becomes more unfavorable for snow even as the pattern remains favorable and below normal. I'd say we have until mid March to get something before it gets too late.

I know we could see snow late March into early April but the odds are highly against it and I'm not sure how long the blocking will last.

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Zir0b

Zir0b

Posted
Posted

I believe you meant to post that in the banter thread...

 

In any event, the next threat looks to be around the March 7-8 time frame from a northern stream trough that amplifies and bombs out a hair too late for us.

that's according to the GFS...GGEM @180 hrs looks like it might amplify a hair too early

f180.gif

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

After the big upper level trough moves out of the picture and begins to elongate (post day 5), there should still be a good cold air source with the blocking to the north forcing the upper level low to essentially elongate over Southeast Canada. The shortwave(s) that dive over the top of the Pac ridge beyond that post (see the 12z GFS at 180 hr) should then have a chance to amplify and provide us with snowfall potential.

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