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Friday February 8th Storm Potential

Edge Weather

By Edge Weather,
in New York City Metro

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 041149
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
649 AM EST MON FEB 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS HIGH
SLOWLY RETREATS TO OUR NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN TRACKS TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

BREEZY WNW FLOW WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. DRY
PUSH OF AIR WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE W BY THIS
EVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING TODAY...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MAIN SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WEAK LOW WHICH WAS ANALYZED
OVER N CENTRAL IA AT 6Z. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL PLACED THE LOW
SLIGHTLY SW OF THIS POSITION...NEAR OMAHA. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
BRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE CWA TONIGHT...WHEREAS THE ECMWF
SUPPRESSES THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE S AND KEEPS IT DRY.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE SIMILAR IN THE MODELS AT THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH HIGHER AT THE LOW LEVELS. AS A
RESULT...WILL RAISE POPS DUE TO THE WETTER SOLUTIONS OF THE
AMERICAN MODELS...BUT KEEP THE FCST IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED BY THE ECMWF.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA ON TUE...ALLOWING
FOR CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...JUST DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING. GIVEN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
LIGHT SNOW LIKELY FROM MID TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
FROM W TO E. QPF WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AROUND
12:1 BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AROUND 0.5-1 INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS SHEARING OUT...FEEL MORE CONFIDENT...FOR NOW
ABOUT SNOWFALL ACROSS NW ZONES THEN ELSEWHERE...SO HAVE RESTRICTED
LIKELY POPS TO THERE AT THIS TIME.

FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF
GFS/NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND A MIX DOWN
FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 875 HPA INLAND PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

WEAK NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CMC/GFS AND THE
ECMWF/UKMET ON WHETHER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN SOME SUPPORT FOR THE ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTION BY A FEW INDIVIDUAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF AND BETTER OVERALL HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE
OF THE ECMWF INT HIS TIME RANGE...USED THE 00Z ECMWF IN THIS TIME
RANGE.

THE RESULT IS EXPECT A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TRACK TO THE S OF LONG
ISLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...PASSING INSIDE THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...AND REACH A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AS THE 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS BUILD INTO THE REGION.

BASED ON THIS HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGHOUT BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT BY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE FAR NW ZONES BASED ON IDEA OF RETREATING HIGH TO THE NE
- NOTHING TO KEEP THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TRAPPED IN...AND FORECAST
OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 925 HPA TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN PRECIPITATION
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE

PLEASE NOTE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THIS FORECAST.
IF THE PHASING DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL WELL OFFSHORE...LIKE THE GFS
AND CMC-GLOBAL...THEN THE ENTIRE REGION WOULD EXPERIENCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FORECAST PLAYS OUT WITH TIME AND THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW WILL ALSO HELP DETERMINE HOW MUCH IF ANY CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN IS ULTIMATELY SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/HPC GUIDANCE...WEIGHED MORE TOWARDS HPC
AND ECE GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TO BE NEAR NORMAL...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK
LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH
THE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD STAY TO THE LEFT OF 310 TRUE...
BUT WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING...WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT
WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BY A FEW KT FROM
12Z-15Z BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THEREAFTER. WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY TO 5-10 KT BETWEEN 22Z-23Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT.

WEAK LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOPS AFTER 05Z TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW...
OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDS ON TAP DURING THAT PERIOD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH 00Z. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES TO THE LEFT OF 310 TRUE. OCNL
GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS MORNING.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH 00Z. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES TO THE LEFT OF 310 TRUE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE IN THE MORNING.
.TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
.THURSDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY...CHC IFR AND 25KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE IN HOURLY GRIDS MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

SCA WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE
MARITIMES. WILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LINGERING A
BIT LONGER ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES. FLOW ON TUE WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NW-NE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
15KT.

FOR NOW EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE SECOND
CLIPPER SYSTEM.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A COASTAL LOW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ON FRIDAY...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA WATERS THEN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE REGION COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
LIQUID EQUIVALENT (0.5 INCHES OR MORE) FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

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326
FXUS61 KPHI 041142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 AM EST MON FEB 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. A PAIR OF
CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND PASS THROUGH OR CLOSE TO OUR AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT US
ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM EASTERN CANADA TO
FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING WOULD NORMALLY YIELD BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO TAKE PLACE, ESPECIALLY WITH A FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND,
HOWEVER, TURBULENT MIXING WILL KEEP THIS MORNINGS LOW FROM
PLUMMETING. WE SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CITY AND AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST OF THE CITY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE
WELL OFFSHORE DEEPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH. A
BLUSTERY DAY IS ON TAP AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON DROPPING 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND -15C TO -17C.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AS THE SURFACE
AND 925MB FLOW BACKS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WEAK WAA REGIME...WE START
TO SEE 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE WHICH WOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH TODAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WESTERLY
COMPONENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS, DOWNSLOPING WILL ALSO HELP TO
ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR THE MOST PART
BOTH THE MAV AND MET APPEAR SIMILAR ENOUGH TO USE A STRAIGHT BLEND
BUT DECIDED, BASED ON THE ABOVE, TO EDGE TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV FOR
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE
THIS EVENING. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS NEARLY ZONAL AS THE
STABLE WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD A LIGHT SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE FLOW REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
BETTER JET DYNAMICS TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS PLACES OUR REGION
IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION WHICH PROVIDES MORE OF A SINKING MOTION.
MID-LEVEL OMEGA IS VERY MARGINAL BORDERING ON WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DENDRITIC GROWTH, PLUS THE WINDS WITHIN THE
GROWTH ZONE ARE STILL ON THE ORDER OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS. MID-LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT AS DOES THE
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFTING REMAINS WEAK. THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS GOING AGAINST THIS
SYSTEM ONCE IT CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST. THE ONE
BRIGHT SPOT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

THE SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING PRODUCED AROUND A 15:1
RATIO AND THE CLIPPER ON SATURDAY HAD SOME 20+:1 RATIOS EMBEDDED IN
A GENERAL 15:1. THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AS IT PULLS THROUGH. THIS WOULD EQUATE TO TOTALS RANGING
FROM A HALF TO ONE AND HALF INCHES WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW
FALLING IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN NEW JERSEY ZONES AND WELL
OFFSHORE...THIS IS WHERE SOME STRONGER WAA COULD INCREASE QPF VALUES
SLIGHTLY. THE EVENT IN GENERAL APPEARS TO BE SUB-ADVISORY LASTING NO
MORE THAN A FEW HOURS...AGAIN WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

TEMPERATURE WISE A SIMPLE BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SHOULD SUFFICE AS
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-20S EXPECTED...UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REGARDING THE END OF THE FIRST CLIPPER, WE HAVE PUT BACK THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS EARLY ON TUESDAY IN THE EVENT THAT THE AMERICAN MODELS
ARE RIGHT TO DRAW OUT THE WEAK TRANSFERENCE OF ENERGY. WE CONTINUE
TO THINK THAT TUESDAY WILL NOT OFFER MUCH SUNSHINE, SINCE THE SECOND
CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING BY THE TIME THE FIRST IN LEAVING.

IT STILL LOOKS TO US LIKE THE UPPER JET IS NOT IN A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT SECOND SYSTEM. THE DYNAMICS ARE
STILL CONSISTENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES,
AND THE BEST OF EVERYTHING FROM MID LEVELS DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND
FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE TO MESOSCALE STILL LOOK TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WE WERE ABLE TO FIND A WEAK MANIFESTATION OF
LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH COINCIDING SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT IN BOTH THE
04/00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT OVERVIEWS FOR AVP, AND THERE EVEN WAS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WHEN THETA E VALUES IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION
DID NOT INCREASE WITH HEIGHT. THIS SIGNAL IS WEAK AND NEW TO THE
GAME. WE'VE LOOKED AT TWO OR THREE RUNS OF THE ECMWF, GFS AND NAM
NOW, AND OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THAT IS BASED ON
THIS OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE CHANGES VERY LITTLE FROM THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER. WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT.

THE OBVIOUS CAVEAT IS THAT IF THE WEAK SIGNAL IN THE NORTHWEST GETS
STRONGER OVER SUBSEQUENT RUNS, THEN A TICK UPWARD IN QPF AND RATIOS
THERE WOULD LEAD TO A REQUISITE UPTICK IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY CHILLY FAR NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS IN THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION LOOK TO BE AROUND 40 KT. IF WE START TO SEE GOOD
OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH A CLEAR SIGNAL OF STEADY OR
FALLING THETA E VALUES WITH HEIGHT, THEN RATIOS NORTHWEST STILL
COULD SURPASS 20 TO 1. COMBINED WITH INCREASED QPF, WE WOULD BE
PUSHING INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY THERE.

ONLY THE NAM KEEPS BACK PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
AND WE KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COULD BE A DECENT RADIATING NIGHT, AND THURSDAY MAY AT LEAST START
AS SUNNY (MORE LIKELY SOUTHEAST THAN NORTHWEST). WINDS START TO
SHIFT TO ONSHORE AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST, AND CLOUDS AT MULTIPLE LEVELS LIKELY WILL START TO
INVADE AHEAD OF THE END-OF-THE-WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

REGARDING THAT, THE ECMWF IS CARRYING A MODESTLY TONED DOWN VERSION
OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT IT SHOWED OVER THE PAST TWO
RUNS. THE SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOESN'T CUT OFF WITH THIS
RUN UNTIL IT PASSES CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THE SURFACE LOW ISN'T
QUITE AS QUICK TO EXPLODE AS IT LIFTS FROM NORFOLK TO THE NEW
ENGLAND MARITIMES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE LESS SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGHS AND MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE LOWS. IN FACT, THE GFS ACTUALLY
CARRIES AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE LOOK A LOT
LIKE THE OPERATIONAL GFS, ALTHOUGH THERE ALSO IS A LOT OF VARIANCE
IN THE EACH ONE'S INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

DON'T TAKE TOO MUCH COMFORT IN THE ENSEMBLES. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS
FAR OUT THEY DO SOMETIMES SMOOTH OUT WHAT END UP BEING STRONG
SYSTEMS. IT GIVES US A LITTLE MORE COMFORT THAT THE PRESENT TREND IN
THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS AT LEAST TOWARD DELAYING AND THEREFORE
PUSHING FURTHER EAST THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. IT GIVES US
A WEE BIT MORE COMFORT THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN ARE NOT
YET JUMPING IN WITH THE ECMWF. WE DO NOTE THAT HPC IS TAKING A
WEAKENED VERSION OF THE LATEST ECMWF AS ITS BASIS FOR THEIR LATEST
FORECAST.

WE REMAIN LOATH TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LATTER PART OF THE
LONG TERM DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. THE WEEKEND STILL
LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 06Z TAF CYCLE AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS,
WITH INCLUDED GUSTS, WILL HELP TO KEEP CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE VFR
RANGE TODAY THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL BE UPWARDS OF
20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THE
EVENING HOURS.

MORE MID-LEVEL WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS BRINGS WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOWERING CONDITIONS AS LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN MOST TERMINALS. A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF THE CIGS IS EXPECTED WHILE VSBYS COULD TANK DOWN INTO
THE IFR RANGE AS THE STEADIER SNOW SWEEPS ACROSS OUR TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND LOOK TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS IT PASSES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OUT TO THE SEA NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF CYCLE BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF A SURFACE FLOW WOULD THINK WE KEEP
MVFR CIGS AROUND FOR A BETTER PART OF THE MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE EARLY IN THE DAY
AND MODERATE THEREAFTER.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN
MAINLY SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE.

FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ACROSS
ALL OUR WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE OUR
GUSTINESS BY THEN. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD OUR WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER MAY
INTENSIFY A BIT AS IT MOVES OVER THE WATER...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE STILL EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS MIGHT APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY,
WE THINK THEY WILL STAY SUB-ADVISORY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MIGHT COME ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM PER THE ECMWF
OR ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A CONSENSUS
VERSION OF A DEPARTING SYSTEM. INDEED, THE ECMWF WOULD CARRY GALES
(AT LEAST) WITH IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DELISI
AVIATION...HEAVENER
MARINE...HEAVENER

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Its a cold rain from the city on south and east , this could turn out to be a bigtime snowstorm in New England .

It looks like places just north and west of the city , do go back over to snow as the center passes by .

There will be great lapse rates and dynamic cooling with this system . so palces just away from the coast see some snow

Our problem is we cant keep our mid levels cold throughout the storm . so i wouldn`t be expecting much to change on the models for our area .

The fine tuning will be north and west of the city and how much snow New England actually sees

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

Its a cold rain from the city on south and east , this could turn out to be a bigtime snowstorm in New England . It looks like places just north and west of the city , do go back over to snow as the center passes by . There will be great lapse rates and dynamic cooling with this system . so palces just away from the coast see some snow Our problem is we cant keep our mid levels cold throughout the storm . so i wouldn`t be expecting much to change on the models for our area . The fine tuning will be north and west of the city and how much snow New England actually sees

 

Yes, that's if the Euro is right. The ensembles don't even agree with the operational model.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Yes, that's if the Euro is right. The ensembles don't even agree with the operational model.

Nah , they are pretty similar . You are not goin to hav to go far to see accumulating snow .

There will be a change back to snow once the center comes underneath you .

Just dont know if it makes all the way down to the city before the precip pulls out .

But just N W obviously in a better spot . 4 days out , but this is NOT a snow scenario for us .

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

You're torched verbatim on the 00z euro. What else do you want me to say? Gfs is still not budging so the euro is probably wrong. Really nothing support an east coast storm right now

He thinks he lives in the Rockies and the rest of us are in Miami. Just ask him about his epic ice storm the other day? It's rain for 100% of the area

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Yes, that's if the Euro is right. The ensembles don't even agree with the operational model.

I'd take any solution that blows up a storm nearby with extreme caution given the fast and progressive pattern we're in. It'll take a tremendous amount of good luck to even generate a real storm near us. More likely it's another lame clipper or a front.

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