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February 15-MOrch possible wintry threats


tombo82685

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It's got to be sweeet huh?

 

I can't remember the last time I made a storm thread man. I feel like I should celebrate when we are under the "3.49 QPF bomb" but whatever... :)

it's a pretty awesome call... you had this period highlighted since at least mid-Jan. I'm somewhat excited that my energy met trolling is looking better, as well.

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After a closer examination of the euro, I think I'm going to have to make a thread. To me, it is mostly snow in northern NJ, so that's close enough for a thread. Also, as the storm's arriving, the temps are cooler than the GFS too with the euro's better resolution.

 

If you are in the developing CCB (eastern and northern NJ, perhaps NE PA), I don't care what your lower level temps are, you are snow and snowing hard. The obvious caveat here is a warm nose above 850mb that I cannot see.

 

Unfortunately, this solution is based on s/w madness so this whole thing could come down from its current "epic" status for NE.

 

Finally, I don't think I'm a big fan of the next system and the euro does something odd with the Plains trough (misses a phase). Let's wait and see how the ensembles handle this because it looks funny. If the euro is a little too slow / overphased off the NE coast, that could be affecting the Plains trough.

 

I still like 2/20-22 for the next threat but I could be wrong about the in between period.

 

This would also be true for inland areas far NW of I-95 I would think... 534 thickness at ABE hour 84 with 36 and rain?  850's at -5C?  No...

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it's a pretty awesome call... you had this period highlighted since at least mid-Jan. I'm somewhat excited that my energy met trolling is looking better, as well.

 

Well things were getting hairy there for the both of us. Between the Tropical Pacific debate and all the nay-saying, it was starting to affect me. This wasn't the cleanest call for sure for us but I'm glad we didn't fold. Oh and let the trolling begin. Should we call this the rollo storm? lol

Great call HM! Even if we don't see heavy snow in our area, the fact that a major storm will be brewing up the coast like that for New England will be amazing to watch unfold!

 

Thanks. I think significant snow is doable in the northern portion of our area.  

 

This would also be true for inland areas far NW of I-95 I would think... 534 thickness at ABE hour 84 with 36 and rain?  850's at -5C?  No...

 

Agreed. The biggest concern will be when the mid level features consolidate. If they wait until a New England approach, there could be a void in the precipitation and omega, keeping rates less. Suddenly, low level temps may become an issue. If the h5 features can phase even quicker than today's runs, suddenly this is a major snowstorm PHL-NYC too.

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Srn stream FTW, AAM dump FTW. Winter cancelled after 2/12 FTL. 

 

Got to love it folks when Scott gets excited. I wish you the best my friend. You are doing a good job keeping things cool in the NE forum. You know expectations are now 3.5" QPF lol...

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Already giving up for Philly metro?? Keep hope alive!!

 

Hope is one of the most overrated feelings, it only keeps pain alive. You need to know when to accept. If we had a NAO I'd feel more positive because the storm could slow down and close off farther south, but I don't like the chances here. I would hate to miss the chance to see 30" of snow with strong winds just because 5 hours of driving is stopping me ;) 

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Hope is one of the most overrated feelings, it only keeps pain alive. You need to know when to accept. If we had a NAO I'd feel more positive because the storm could slow down and close off farther south, but I don't like the chances here. I would hate to miss the chance to see 30" of snow with strong winds just because 5 hours of driving is stopping me ;)

As much as I love snow I think that's a dumb idea lol, no reason to put lives in jeopardy drivin up there. Plus what always happens to bullseye areas 4 days out? They go south.

This is trending colder, I wouldn't be surprised to see decent snow in Philly, N&W of PHL is very much in the game to get hammered

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Well things were getting hairy there for the both of us. Between the Tropical Pacific debate and all the nay-saying, it was starting to affect me. This wasn't the cleanest call for sure for us but I'm glad we didn't fold. Oh and let the trolling begin. Should we call this the rollo storm? lol

 

Thanks. I think significant snow is doable in the northern portion of our area.  

  

Agreed. The biggest concern will be when the mid level features consolidate. If they wait until a New England approach, there could be a void in the precipitation and omega, keeping rates less. Suddenly, low level temps may become an issue. If the h5 features can phase even quicker than today's runs, suddenly this is a major snowstorm PHL-NYC too.

Well this is what I'm hanging my hat on for, :guitar: Hoping we can get something out of it.  Either way it's going to be fun to watch unfold even if we don't get in on at.

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Got to love it folks when Scott gets excited. I wish you the best my friend. You are doing a good job keeping things cool in the NE forum. You know expectations are now 3.5" QPF lol...

 

LOL, hard not to get excited, but you know better than anyone how delicate this dance is for the nrn and srn vorts.I'm waiting (impatiently) until tomorrow before getting too excited.  And I'll echo the sentiments of others...nice job highlighting the period too. 

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Agreed. The biggest concern will be when the mid level features consolidate. If they wait until a New England approach, there could be a void in the precipitation and omega, keeping rates less. Suddenly, low level temps may become an issue. If the h5 features can phase even quicker than today's runs, suddenly this is a major snowstorm PHL-NYC too.

 

What's sickening is we are talking a few hours earlier, not 12 hours of an earlier phase at H5 to get drilled here too... hopefully being 72-84 hours out we aren't done trending here.  Also judging by WV looks like our systems just came onshore, so better data sampling going into 00z's?

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As much as I love snow I think that's a dumb idea lol, no reason to put lives in jeopardy drivin up there. Plus what always happens to bullseye areas 4 days out? They go south.

This is trending colder, I wouldn't be surprised to see decent snow in Philly, N&W of PHL is very much in the game to get hammered

 

I'd drive a day ahead of the storm so no chance of getting caught in it, I'm sure my life would be safe staying a motel ;)

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What's sickening is we are talking a few hours earlier, not 12 hours of an earlier phase at H5 to get drilled here too... hopefully being 72-84 hours out we aren't done trending here.  Also judging by WV looks like our systems just came onshore, so better data sampling going into 00z's?

This is a highly sensitive and a crappy thing for modeling. I have seen 72 hr phase jobs turn into 24 hr spotty showers. The internal dynamics of s/w, latent heat, convection, inertia, etc. all make "partial phasing" the leading cause for storm busts (anecdote -- I do not have the research to back me up here).  

 

LOL, hard not to get excited, but you know better than anyone how delicate this dance is for the nrn and srn vorts.I'm waiting (impatiently) until tomorrow before getting too excited.  And I'll echo the sentiments of others...nice job highlighting the period too. 

 

The only thing you've got to "hang your hat on" (you know a storm is coming when I start using idioms I can't stand) is that the current so-called "bust" of a clipper is turning into a giant NW Atlantic cyclone. The fact that the added MJO-subtropical high help and PV revolving are working in tandem for this means you've got a 50-50 like low / east-based NAO setup. This is a classic North Atlantic evolution for New England...but it doesn't mean 3.5" QPF either ... :P

 

Well this is what I'm hanging my hat on for, :guitar: Hoping we can get something out of it.  Either way it's going to be fun to watch unfold even if we don't get in on at.

Well I guess we are all hanging our hats! :P

There is still hope for our area but obviously Leigh to N-C NJ on NE is looking the best.

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I suspect this board will be busy for the EURO tonite.  Leading up to that, I don't think anyone expects the 18Z or 0Z GFS to mirror the EURO.  But I am guessing we are looking for a continuing trend of a slightly building SE Ridge and earlier phasing from the GFS?  Without focusing on the final 84+ hour outcome, are there other features we should be looking for from the GFS in upcoming runs?

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What kind of numbers you seeing bobby.

OT- snowing pretty good here in Germansville right now

 

Looking like we exceed 6" at ABE... put it that way.  I am looking at them mobile so hard to be more specific.  Looks like 32 degree SFC line at the heaviest QPF time frame runs just NW of I-95... someone correct me if I am wrong...

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Looking like we exceed 6" at ABE... put it that way.  I am looking at them mobile so hard to be more specific.  Looks like 32 degree SFC line at the heaviest QPF time frame runs just NW of I-95... someone correct me if I am wrong...

How does the QPF look down towards Lancaster, or do we get a bit of dry slotting? 

Thanks

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