tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 the 12z gefs still show solid support for the "gaines bomber" next wed/thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 This is true, I forgot i said that, sorry lee. Anyways, I'm not sure if you saw the euro, but it looks a good bit better and moved towards the gfs somewhat. Phases in the northern stream moreso than the 0z run did. Had better separation from that s/w behind it which allowed the ridge to gain more amplitude which allowed the northern stream to dig more. Good steps imho, but it still has to keep adjusting. If Lee wants to do it he can. One of us can do the event the other obs? EC hasn't come in yet at the office, glad it's coming around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I thought the ECM looked better, but didn't want to say anything since I'm no pro at reading an H5 chart lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 If Lee wants to do it he can. One of us can do the event the other obs? EC hasn't come in yet at the office, glad it's coming around. It bumped north with the low pressure. Instead of slidding south of hse its over hse or just to the north. Gets precip up into delaware and extreme southern nj. Still has a ways to go but it looked better and edged a little bit towards the gfs. No you have the thread. You were the first to eye it up. If it occurs, lee can make the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Here's hope that the "Gaines Bomber" gets off the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Nice improvement on the Euro. Its close now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I don't care if it snows or not...it just can't do it until the night of the 13th into the 14th. I've wasted six weeks on a project that runs the 13th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 NAM looks good at hr84, I think? I can't imagine extrapolation of the run would result in a failstorm. Then again, it's the NAM at hr84. And 18z, at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 If Lee wants to do it he can. One of us can do the event the other obs? EC hasn't come in yet at the office, glad it's coming around. It's your storm you get the honor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 gfs took the euros track and sent the low right off hse. Obviously a lot of time left but need about a 75 mile north tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 What's the latest on the freezing rain threat for Monday AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 What's the latest on the freezing rain threat for Monday AM? could be a minor glaze. Gfs shows whatever ice there would be it would be under .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 BOOM goes the dynamite on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Nice GFS run. A little colder than previous runs today with track off the Va Capes. Now only 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 500mb Reminds me of Jan 2011 (my fav storm) GFS Jan 26 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Good set-up for a MA snow - 50/50 low, shortwave in TV and low track off the Va Capes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 A little concerned about the lack of low level cold however. Could be a non sticking snow for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 A little concerned about the lack of low level cold however. Could be a non sticking snow for some. The early week cutter should send a shot of reinforcing cold air into our region. Should be a half decent air mass. I'd be more worried about a southern slider. Between the kicker wave over the lakes, and that 50-50 low shearing this out. (not buying the bogus closed off vort the GFS is showing)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Anyhow, decent MJO signal showing up for this week and next weekend's time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 The early week cutter should send a shot of reinforcing cold air into our region. Should be a half decent air mass. I'd be more worried about a southern slider. Between the kicker wave over the lakes, and that 50-50 low shearing this out. (not buying the bogus closed off vort the GFS is showing)... this...with how things have that 50/50 low supressing hgts to a degree. Imho this low can only come so far north. Also, with that kicker on its heels its going to deamplify things to. The low level cold could be an issue for i95 and especially south and east. As of now things cool just in time. Just an early guess if things stay the same i can't see this low getting further north then tracking off se va and southern delmarva penn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 The gefs track is pretty much over hse...though there probably are some that are north going off the precip distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Clown map has Gloucester/Camden county 6" jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Sticking could be an issue particularly mid-day. GFS has slowed timing a bit which helps. Heaviest now in evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 euro is a no go on the storm same track as 12z maybe a little further south...gets precip up to southern del but probably to warm down there for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 06 gfs/GEFS have backed down a little vs 00z but still bring snow to our area. The GFS is the most NW global. The non-US models GEM/ukie/Euro all shear the shortwave in the middle of the country and keep the storm SE. While the US models SREF/NAM/GFS all maintain a stronger wave and a better storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 So is the ice potential tonight and early Monday a big deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Still potential for a big storm next weekend. Last nights Euro was close. There are some big ones in the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Not gettin too excited for this Vday storm. Seeing the euro NOT onboard is disheartening.(pun intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 So is the ice potential tonight and early Monday a big deal? Not a big deal but could be a slick morning AM rush up there. Should warm above freezing quickly in AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Not a big deal but could be a slick morning AM rush up there. Should warm above freezing quickly in AM Advisory criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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