chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The trough modeled after the VD storm is exactly the kind of response the MJO-AAM signal was suggesting for the last few weeks. Will it just get very cold or will we have another opportunity at a monster? Interesting. There is certainly a huge signal for trough amplication in Euro/GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GEM+ukie are on board for next week similar to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GGEM also jumped on the storm wagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Think the V-day storm is progressive if we do get it. May be suppressed a little luck with this is needed. The overall height pattern a few days back looked more amplified than it does now. Modeling is better today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 EUro still cooking its monster post VDAY storm..... CLosed h5 low in the base of the FUll lat nuetral tilt trough 210. SLP over the SE Coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Think the V-day storm is progressive if we do get it. May be suppressed a little luck with this is needed. The overall height pattern a few days back looked more amplified than it does now. Modeling is better today though. The Euro is still suppressed but less so than last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Rain to snow on the VD's storm on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And the GFS is another hit on 18z. Loving this. Only a couple days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And the GFS is another hit on 18z. Loving this. Only a couple days away. Are you referring to the Sunday / Monday storm? Looks like a decent amount of precip. involved, albeit rain down here (booo!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Are you referring to the Sunday / Monday storm? Looks like a decent amount of precip. involved, albeit rain down here (booo!). He's talking about the thursday system. More than a couple days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Are you referring to the Sunday / Monday storm? Looks like a decent amount of precip. involved, albeit rain down here (booo!). He's talking about the thursday system. More than a couple days away. Yes sorry about that, I know it's a more than a couple days away. The point is it is relatively close for us to get somewhat excited. It's not in day 10 fantasyland, it's under a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Huge run this first storm looked like a 6 to 12 inch. The pd3 storm is huge storm this run also . then one more at the end of the run alot can change but alot to track. Maybe we can get back to back storms again. first storm to track http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=88678 this is what the pd3 looked like http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp12204.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 The euro took baby steps towards the gfs by digging the northern stream in better, but end result is still a skirt off nc coast. Need that northern stream to dig more. Doesn't help their is a kicker on its heels thats going to limit the amplitude of the ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Lets keep the vday storm talk in here for now til it gets more support. The threat is 5-6 days away. I don't see the need for a new thread on it right now when the confidence on it is sub par as of now. If it looks good monday night still, Lee you can re start the topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The euro took baby steps towards the gfs by digging the northern stream in better, but end result is still a skirt off nc coast. Need that northern stream to dig more. Doesn't help their is a kicker on its heels thats going to limit the amplitude of the ridge out west. That kicker in the NW isn't on the GFS or the CMC i think. It definitely deamplifies the trough. Euro could just be overdoing that energy. Do adam or HM like this threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Any info on zr event early Monday AM n&w of Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Any info on zr event early Monday AM n&w of Philly? Looks like a slick AM drive in LV perhaps in far N+W suburbs. Should warm fairly quickly in AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 gfs run continues to bring the chances. another gfs vs euro for 14th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 06z GFS backed off a little for wed and is still NW of other models. Anyone know what Euro shows for next weekend GFS/GEM honking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Looks like a slick AM drive in LV perhaps in far N+W suburbs. Should warm fairly quickly in AM yea, timing doesn't sound ideal for morning commute up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 06z GFS backed off a little for wed and is still NW of other models. Anyone know what Euro shows for next weekend GFS/GEM honking Euro had just a dominate norther stream storm. Temps it has 50s fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Euro had just a dominate norther stream storm. Temps it has 50s fri 50's next Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 yup, 0z euro blasting warmth fri/sat, 50 line thru abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 yup, 0z euro blasting warmth fri/sat, 50 line thru abe Deceptive look on ewall. Doesn't look like the 850 line gets north of Delaware that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Deceptive look on ewall. Doesn't look like the 850 line gets north of Delaware that period. yea it's bl warmth as there is a storm over the great lakes floods the bl with southerly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Although the 06z GFS was a little weaker with the wed storm the 06z ensembles were more robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Really like the chances for a more southern track that impacts us in this region over the next 10 days. Still think we end up close to normal snow for the season and most folks who like winter weather will recall this one fondly. It's kind of interesting that folks who don't follow weather closely who live in my neck of the woods have been telling me they think it has been a cold and snowy winter! Mainly because of 4 accumulating (albeit small) snow events in the first 8 days of this month. Folks who part outside have been clearing their cars off a lot of morning here in the NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 12z GFS a little warmer with wed storm snow/rain/snow for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Lets keep the vday storm talk in here for now til it gets more support. The threat is 5-6 days away. I don't see the need for a new thread on it right now when the confidence on it is sub par as of now. If it looks good monday night still, Lee you can re start the topic. I thought I had this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 I thought I had this one . This is true, I forgot i said that, sorry lee. Anyways, I'm not sure if you saw the euro, but it looks a good bit better and moved towards the gfs somewhat. Phases in the northern stream moreso than the 0z run did. Had better separation from that s/w behind it which allowed the ridge to gain more amplitude which allowed the northern stream to dig more. Good steps imho, but it still has to keep adjusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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