Ji Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'm unbearable at home right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Jb hates me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 At least misery loves company. The entire east coast has been a screw zone this year. Outside of parts of the mountain west, there has been almost no snow action. At some point the rubber band will snap back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'm unbearable at home right now we have time...plus you have like 8" so far yes? anyway...we are going to get a proper storm...if not Feb then March which will be good for you if not me....The numbers at the end might not look that pretty, but the next 6 weeks will deliver a satisfying finish....more interesting things can happen in February in a so-so pattern.....I'd be surprised if we make it through the next 10-14 days without an event....we may even get something next weekend.... Not sure when we will see a major coastal, but we will get something with 0.25-0.5" QPF run into cold air at some point...be patient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 At least misery loves company. The entire east coast has been a screw zone this year. Outside of parts of the mountain west, there has been almost no snow action. At some point the rubber band will snap back. getting out of a +6-+7 stable pattern makes a difference...Feb might not rock but it wont suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 we have time...plus you have like 8" so far yes? anyway...we are going to get a proper storm...if not Feb then March which will be good for you if not me....The numbers at the end might not look that pretty, but the next 6 weeks will deliver a satisfying finish....more interesting things can happen in February in a so-so pattern.....I'd be surprised if we make it through the next 10-14 days without an event....we may even get something next weekend.... Not sure when we will see a major coastal, but we will get something with 0.25-0.5" QPF run into cold air at some point...be patient how can you be so sure on something not on models but on a day 1 sys have to give 4 different scenarios odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Big daddy hour 384 on The 6zGFS. Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Big daddy hour 384 on The 6zGFS. Lock it in! that's a rain storm verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Sure. I'll be patient. Haven't seen a real snow in 2 full years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 that's a rain storm verbatim What are details this far out, by the time we get inside 100 hours it will be cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Sure. I'll be patient. Haven't seen a real snow in 2 full years For your wife's sake I hope she lives somewhere else in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 that's a rain storm verbatim Verbatim, anything past three days is pin the tail on the donkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It just the freakin weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Same Ji, different year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It just the freakin weather Frozen water!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The 06Z GEFS mean is starting to show signs of at least some southern stream energy so Feb is not yet over. I'm on the Matt train this winter but I also think getting some southern stream energy going makes a big difference in our chances of getting a 3-6 inch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Frozen water!!!! High wind! Lightning! Hail! Tornadoes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 how can you be so sure on something not on models but on a day 1 sys have to give 4 different scenarios odds? cause you are looking at a sample window of say 6-8 weeks versus a particular discrete event...so not any single unique event has to meet that criteria and even when it does there will be defining details...the ideas above are broad brush....I certainly am far from sure, but the pattern looks decent and should get better, analogs are decent, skilled mets think we have some good chances, and climatology argues strongly against a virtual shutout....getting a 3-5" snowstorm is not that ambitious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I liked the GFS 6z. Rain over dry any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Wes's morning update is another punch in the gut! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38918-late-january-2013-mid-long-range-disco-thread/?p=2050982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Wes's morning update is another punch in the gut! Rubbing salt into the wound. We can't even muster up a lousy clipper lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Wes's morning update is another punch in the gut! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38918-late-january-2013-mid-long-range-disco-thread/?p=2050982 I tried to say that after the 11th or 12th I think the pattern will look better for more than a clipper. I just don't see much chances for more than a clipper before about the 11th of Feb. HM likes the 8th-12th so I could always be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I tried to say that after the 11th or 12th I think the pattern will look better for more than a clipper. I just don't see much chances for more than a clipper before about the 11th of Feb. HM likes the 8th-12th so I could always be wrong. Feb 12-15 will be rockin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I tried to say that after the 11th or 12th I think the pattern will look better for more than a clipper. I just don't see much chances for more than a clipper before about the 11th of Feb. HM likes the 8th-12th so I could always be wrong. It is all good. You are just laying it out the way it reads right now. I think the thing that got me was the first 1/3 of February not looking very encouraging. I know we were not expecting much any way, but was hoping for more rather than less opportunity. Again all good and keep us honest. Let's hope the 2/3 of February brings us a better pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It is all good. You are just laying it out the way it reads right now. I think the thing that got me was the first 1/3 of February not looking very encouraging. I know we were not expecting much any way, but was hoping for more rather than less opportunity. Again all good and keep us honest. Let's hope the 2/3 of February brings us a better pattern. today/s GFS is quicker bringing southern stream energy eastward than the ens mean I was looking at so if it is right, my analysis could be garbage. That should be your hope. Anything coming across the south is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 today/s GFS is quicker bringing southern stream energy eastward than the ens mean I was looking at so if it is right, my analysis could be garbage. That should be your hope. Anything coming across the south is good. only problem is that there is no cold air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 only problem is that there is no cold air! every medium range model run this season showing a decent snow event has obviously been wrong so why do you whine every time they don't show snow? if it happens this year, it will come on short notice in that it probably won't be well modeled more than 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 could this be the issue...MJO stuck in phase 7? http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Until last winter I had gotten a 3"+ event for 13 consecutive winters. I think it is too early to give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Big daddy hour 384 on The 6zGFS. Lock it in! That's awesome...thank god for amwx boards compared to elsewhere...they help me limit my emotional investment in hoping for winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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