rgwp96 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 bufkit is 0.9 for NYC...would probably be a solid 8-12 maybe 10-14 if we can get in on some higher ratios in the beginning and as the storm moves away, as we warm close to 32 at the height (although still probably 29-30). Nice , what does it show for kmmu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Nice , what does it show for kmmu estimating probably close to 0.75 maybe slightly less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 estimating probably close to 0.75 maybe slightly less After I posted that I saw your post about guessing , I should have deleted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It'll be awesome if the GFS starts to agree with the EURO for the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It'll be awesome if the GFS starts to agree with the EURO for the next few runs. I'd just rather the Euro's current solution verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I'd just rather the Euro's current solution verifying. That's what I meant to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Australian model FWIW...over the Benchmark...this model actually tends to do very good believe it or not with storms over the U.S....the resolution image is impossible to tell anything other than track location though... It has a 983 mB SLP just east of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Just heard that the Euro ensembles are near the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Just heard that the Euro ensembles are near the benchmark. Yeah, me too. Although I'm trying to find out myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Yeah, me too. Although I'm trying to find out myself. Scott posted it in the SNE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Scott posted it in the SNE thread. Thanks. I'll ckeck it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 6z nam looks like it would be pretty good i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 6z nam looks like it would be pretty good i think Sim radar looks good at 84. It's the Nam in the long range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 1. the 0z Euro is almost 1 inch qpf central NJ coast out accross Long Island . NO TEMPS ISSUES . 850s start minus 12 - end up minus 5 . surface temps start in low 20`s get inot upper 20`s , except of far east end LI You are looking 12 - to 15 to 1 ratios if that map verified . day 4 , please relax , best map so far . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 6z GFS looks like the 6z run from yesterday; .01-0.10 across the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 6z GFS looks like the 6z run from yesterday; .01-0.10 across the area.. Either the GFS goes back to a more amped solution or the Euro caves to the GFS, or we get a lakes cutter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Either the GFS goes back to a more amped solution or the Euro caves to the GFS, or we get a lakes cutter! A Lakes Cutter is highly unlikely. I see more of a hit or suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 A Lakes Cutter is highly unlikely. I see more of a hit or suppression. Agreed, suppression worries me, I don't like the fact that the GFS went back to that idea for 2 consecutive runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 How many times does the GFS prog your bigest snowstorms off to your south and east - 4 days out ? The answer ... almost every time . MOST RECENTLY ... Back in DEC and I remember because I was skiing in HUNTER i was arguing with pp on this board the 29 ths storm was coming 3days before the GFS had shunted it , now that low didnt close, the coast rained - but it spit out .50 qpf and .75 east and some parts of CT got a ft of snow and the GFS Missed it .. this time , its COLDER , and that cold air is not moving so no one is goin to rain . Not every solution is a goldilocks one . This doesnt go to the lakes , could it be suppressed ? sure , but the Euro is handing some of you a snowstorm and you are looking to the GFS which runs these systems off way too fast . Nothing is a lock , but watch the Euro if the it bends then worry , but not the GFS this is a well documented model weakness . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Agreed, suppression worries me, I don't like the fact that the GFS went back to that idea for 2 consecutive runs now. A good number of 0z ensembles are good hits and only a few are suppressed. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopnew.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 What the gfs is doing is common, it tends to sniff out a storm toward the end of the medium range, then it kind of loses it for a few runs only to bring it back as we get closer. So if the history of this is correct, it should trend favorably the next few runs or at least by 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 How many times does the GFS prog your bigest snowstorms off to your south and east - 4 days out ? The answer ... almost every time . MOST RECENTLY ... Back in DEC and I remember because I was skiing in HUNTER i was arguing with pp on this board the 29 ths storm was coming 3days before the GFS had shunted it , now that low didnt close, the coast rained - but it spit out .50 qpf and .75 east and some parts of CT got a ft of snow and the GFS Missed it .. this time , its COLDER , and that cold air is not moving so no one is goin to rain . Not every solution is a goldilocks one . This doesnt go to the lakes , could it be suppressed ? sure , but the Euro is handing some of you a snowstorm and you are looking to the GFS which runs these systems off way too fast . Nothing is a lock , but watch the Euro if the it bends then worry , but not the GFS this is a well documented model weakness . Well said. This happens with a lot of storms. HPC threw the 0z GFS out. Will most likely do the same with the 6z run. The GGEM ensemble mean is just like the operational model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Putting the models aside.. what worries me is the arctic air. Cold and dry or warm and wet is one of my sayings. Usually the only times we get snow when its this cold is a miller a that barrels up the coast , then its showtime and I see a 12-18 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 If the euro is the right solution then i would like to see more than that one run before i yell 10 plus . I wouldnt shock me if the GFS doesnt catch it until 12z tomrrw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The million dollar question is if the Euro is done coming NW with the low? I am never crazy about being in the jackpot more than 96 hrs out. 12z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Crazy differences in wording....Upton says moderate snowstorm possible while Taunton says blockbuster storm possible. I never knew that 6-12" is considered "moderate" for our area. It should be worded as "significant." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Crazy differences in wording....Upton says moderate snowstorm possible while Taunton says blockbuster storm possible. I never knew that 6-12" is considered "moderate" for our area. It should be worded as "significant." The main reason at this point is that the models still haven't settled down yet on a single solution. The Euro has been shifting run to run while all the other guidance is more of a northern development before the secondary pops. It's a very low probability forecast at this point trying to guess amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 EURO cuts a fine line for its 32 deg. surface marker---right through Brooklyn---during heaviest QPF period. At any rate this snow will be gone by 1/29-30 as EURO pumps up heights and 850's at this time and 32 deg. line responds by vanishing from anywhere in NYS for about 12 hours. More fun to be had early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bignyc Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Putting the models aside.. what worries me is the arctic air. Cold and dry or warm and wet is one of my sayings. Usually the only times we get snow when its this cold is a miller a that barrels up the coast , then its showtime and I see a 12-18 forecast.Well, then you can hope for a snowstorm once every few years. Miller A's are rare.Most storms here are WAA or Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.