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klw

NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III

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Well the 03 SREF plumes for St. J "only" ranged from 1.95 to 53 (Interestingly two were at 53") with a mean of 22. The 09 SREF has only 1 over 25 and ranges from 4 to 36 with a mean of 16.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE048.gif

If you go to the sref plumes page you can choose with members you wanna take out. It helps make the mean look more realistic.

It wouldn't surprise me to have the northern tier of VT gets an advisory with this.

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If you go to the sref plumes page you can choose with members you wanna take out. It helps make the mean look more realistic.

It wouldn't surprise me to have the northern tier of VT gets an advisory with this.

It can also make the results look less realistic if you take out all the low ones.   :)

 

I think your 4 to 8 call is very realistic for this area though I could see us overperform on the northern stream if the snow growth charts on the SREF are to be believed.  They did quite well a couple of weeks ago with a system coming through though I forget which one it was.

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It can also make the results look less realistic if you take out all the low ones. :)

I think your 4 to 8 call is very realistic for this area though I could see us overperform on the northern stream if the snow growth charts on the SREF are to be believed. They did quite well a couple of weeks ago with a system coming through though I forget which one it was.

I agree. FWIW, the 12z RPM is showing 18-24" for St J (my room mate has access). It's obnoxious and similar to the NAM.

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I think 4-8 is a safe bet.

I might go to SE MASS with my room mate honestly haha

Why wouldn't you?  for you youngins....don't miss a big storm like this.  travel to it.  You will have a blast.  I once left a few thousand dollars on the table (when I didn't have that much to spare), to cancel a client engagement and stay in Philly for Jan 96.  Boy did I not regret that.  Go into a town or city like Boston or Portland where you can walk around, some restaurants will be open, etc....

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Why wouldn't you? for you youngins....don't miss a big storm like this. travel to it. You will have a blast. I once left a few thousand dollars on the table (when I didn't have that much to spare), to cancel a client engagement and stay in Philly for Jan 96. Boy did I not regret that. Go into a town or city like Boston or Portland where you can walk around, some restaurants will be open, etc....

Thanks for the advice!

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I agree. FWIW, the 12z RPM is showing 18-24" for St J (my room mate has access). It's obnoxious and similar to the NAM.

Lol @ the RPM, such an obnoxious model to begin with.

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Why wouldn't you? for you youngins....don't miss a big storm like this. travel to it. You will have a blast. I once left a few thousand dollars on the table (when I didn't have that much to spare), to cancel a client engagement and stay in Philly for Jan 96. Boy did I not regret that. Go into a town or city like Boston or Portland where you can walk around, some restaurants will be open, etc....

Yeah I think big snowstorms are much different in big cities. I've experienced quite a few biggies up here (March 2011's 27" was the most recent), but there's something about being in an urban settling during a big snowstorm.

We'll get ours again at some point...or at least a 15-30" upslope event or something, haha.

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Per Don Sutherland in the Blizzard thread:

 

 

Maine:
Augusta: 1.28”
Bangor: 1.15”
Caribou: 0.23”
Houlton: 0.54”
Lewiston: 0.06”  Update: it is 1.43
Portland: 1.78”

New Hampshire:
Berlin: 0.75”
Concord: 1.64”
Jaffrey: 1.86”
Keene: 1.60”
Lebanon: 1.04”
Manchester: 1.89”
Nashua: 2.00”
Portsmouth: 2.14”
Whitefield: 0.77”

New York:
Albany: 0.77”

Vermont:
Burlington: 0.42”
Montpelier: 0.53”
Rutland: 0.75”
St. Johnsbury: 0.53”

I assume that Lewiston figure is a typo.

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^ LOL or a jestful prank. ;)

 

I was just about to post those but klw beat me to it.

 

Being halfway beterrn LEB & MPV, should be looking at 0.75" liquid here. I've kind of been figuring on 10-12" here for a day or so now and wilth 15:1s in the cards, just might about do it.

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Good call by BTV to issue advisories like I figured they would...good call IMO. My map looks good from before I think. Here is my final call, barring a NAM like solution.

 

 

In Vermont-

BTV: 6-10"

Stowe: 6-10"

Rutland: 8-12"

Montpelier: 7-11"

St. Johnsbury: 5-9"

 

In New Hampshire-

Littleton: 6-10"

Berlin: 7-11"

Lebanon:10-14"

Plymouth: 14-18"

 

 

In Maine-

Fryeburg: 16-20"

Lewiston: 18-24"

Portland: 22-26"

Jackman: 5-9"

 

I am leaving here at 6pm for Middleboro, Mass where I am forecasting 24-30". :)

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Good call by BTV to issue advisories like I figured they would...good call IMO. My map looks good from before I think. Here is my final call, barring a NAM like solution.

 

I am leaving here at 6pm for Middleboro, Mass where I am forecasting 24-30". :)

 

In a WS Warning here in central VT now and thanks much for your thoughts for the region.

 

Have fun down in MA.  Can't wait to hear the stories and see photos out of SNE from this puppy.

 

It's going to be a fun day for everyone regardless of what we all end up getting.  I'm happy just getting some fresh pow on top of our crusty old glacier.

 

:snowing:  :snowing:

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Yeah I think big snowstorms are much different in big cities. I've experienced quite a few biggies up here (March 2011's 27" was the most recent), but there's something about being in an urban settling during a big snowstorm.

 

We'll get ours again at some point...or at least a 15-30" upslope event or something, haha.

 

 

Absolutely, I ran the numbers last February in a post pertaining to the big storm at the end of the month.  My data suggest that there’s typically 1 to 2 of those events in the 40” range each season for the local mountains.  Unless somehow tied to a storm that is region wide though, those events don’t get a fraction of the discussion that events get if they are affecting the big population centers.  Fewer people are interested, and the localized nature seems to make them tougher to forecast.  The biggest storm that I can recall so far this season topped out in the 2 to 2 ½ foot range back at the end of December, so we really haven’t had a whopper yet this season.  The skiing was already nice on Sunday though, and with all the snow so far this week, the skiing should be great this weekend with whatever falls from this next event.  And, it looks like there are more storms on the way next week as well.  It is great getting all the analysis for this upcoming event since it is impacting the big population centers – both here and on The Weather Channel.  I wish The Weather Channel was always like this, with model analyses and live coverage instead of all the documentary type TV shows.

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Thanks for posting the maps PF; we’re under a Winter Storm Warning now on the advisories map:

 

07FEB13C.jpg

 

I did notice that my area has been bumped up from the 6- 8” range in the earlier map to the 8-10” range in this latest version:

 

07FEB13D.jpg

 

If we can avoid getting into too much wind, that would be a nice blanket of snow for turns this weekend.

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