BostonWX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 ~Not with temps at 31/16 and upper levels at -10C and lower. I think it'll be plenty fluffy. Theres BL problems for sure on the 12z GFS. Much lower ratios. Especially mid cape eastward up to the immediate shore in far SE PYM county. Not rain, but way lower ratios which COULD imply a more even spread from the cape to Boston than is expected. Just my take Maybe some drops from CHH out to ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I couldn't get myself to extend the 3-6" area to include KTOL, but we'll see... I think that snowfall ratios and cold temps inland will help boost numbers a bit with a nice, fluffy snowfall. Uncertainty lies further east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 It looks like a real shallow layer at the surface. But with a SE/ESE wind for a period of time, I gotta think parts of the cape will struggle with accum for a period monday night Temps aloft are plenty cold and it will wet bulb with dews pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 They need to be updated every 8 hours or they expire and drop off the maps. Could be either no expansion, or just needed to update them before the main package, so don't read too much into it. Thanks--I know I'm not in the running, but if they expand them, I'll think I might get 3" instead of 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 southeast MA does better, 0.5+ for large area... in that regard is similar to the 16z HRRRDev1 I posted earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Its not like an isothermal 0C layer It looks like a real shallow layer at the surface. But with a SE/ESE wind for a period of time, I gotta think parts of the cape will struggle with accum for a period monday night If its spitting precip then that's possible...from CHH up to PVC...but if its spitting precip the event has failed or the show hasn't started. We've had way way worse set ups stay all frozen and accumulate out here. BL is not a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think BOX may expand warnings back across Bristol, Kent, Washington, and Newport Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Temps aloft are plenty cold and it will wet bulb with dews pretty cold. Hopefully they will, I just have nightmares from past storms up here with the red flag being the 2m GFS temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I couldn't get myself to extend the 3-6" area to include KTOL, but we'll see... I think that snowfall ratios and cold temps inland will help boost numbers a bit with a nice, fluffy snowfall. Uncertainty lies further east... AMwxSnow.png Does that 3-6 extend up into SNH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 If its spitting precip then that's possible...from CHH up to PVC...but if its spitting precip the event has failed or the show hasn't started. We've had way way worse set ups stay all frozen and accumulate out here. BL is not a concern. Yeah for sure, but seeing 2m temps at 37 in CHH (33 for PVC) is worrying, coming during the core of the precip. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KCHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 As sbos_wx said, SREF and HRRR would argue for warning criteria in much of southeast MA Tougher call for Boston metro right in-between the 2 maxes... 2-4 is safe with potential for busting higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think BOX may expand warnings back across Bristol, Kent, Washington, and Newport Counties.Seems prudent at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Does that 3-6 extend up into SNH? I'm thinking 2-4'' for us, easy forecast. A little too far W of the jackpot, but still east enough for a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 SREFS have .1 back into NYS-so atleast 1" for all of CT. I'll take it! Final call: 1.5" IMBY(Going optimistic, sometimes you just have a feeling, plus assuming high ratios.) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Does that 3-6 extend up into SNH? I didn't do a map up there, but I do think you can include SNH under 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 As sbos_wx said, SREF and HRRR would argue for warning criteria in much of southeast MA Tougher call for Boston metro right in-between the 2 maxes... 2-4 is safe with potential for busting higher I'm really curious if someone can explain to me how the snow forecast in Boston usually differs from a suburb north or south of the city. I really hope this isn't an ignorant question, just trying to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm thinking 2-4'' for us, easy forecast. A little too far W of the jackpot, but still east enough for a few inches. I'll take it give we have snow cover now and will add more Friday. Who knows though - maybe that jackpot comes a little further west. A weenie can hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Back at school, expecting 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I didn't do a map up there, but I do think you can include SNH under 3-6". You better crop your map's northern side---that angling of your 3-6" extrapolates over to the Pit. You shouldn't play with one's emotions, Quincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 You better crop your map's northern side---that angling your 3-6" over to the Pit. You shouldn't play with one's emotions, Quincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 If its spitting precip then that's possible...from CHH up to PVC...but if its spitting precip the event has failed or the show hasn't started. We've had way way worse set ups stay all frozen and accumulate out here. BL is not a concern. Yeah for sure, but seeing 2m temps at 37 in CHH (33 for PVC) is worrying, coming during the core of the precip. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KCHH The actual soundings are basically 32/33 for a short time at CHH. It's fine. You can have 32F snow not be soaked too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 If its spitting precip then that's possible...from CHH up to PVC...but if its spitting precip the event has failed or the show hasn't started. We've had way way worse set ups stay all frozen and accumulate out here. BL is not a concern. Yeah for sure, but seeing 2m temps at 37 in CHH (33 for PVC) is worrying, coming during the core of the precip. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KCHH The actual soundings are basically 32/33 for a short time at CHH. It's fine. You can have 32F snow not be soaked too. That last event that you referenced was a whole different animal...torched for like 2500' up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Wow. Trends look like wsw expansions soon. Couldn't be happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Flakes flying thruout CT now. Wheeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 You better crop your map's northern side---that angling of your 3-6" extrapolates over to the Pit. You shouldn't play with one's emotions, Quincy. It probably cuts right back to the north and east, but we'll have to watch the banding very closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Nice bump up in SE MA on 15z SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think this has some surprises up it's sleeve...it will continue to come west...west is the new trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'm really curious if someone can explain to me how the snow forecast in Boston usually differs from a suburb north or south of the city. I really hope this isn't an ignorant question, just trying to learn I'll defer to someone else re: general climatology of the city vs. north/south suburbs. Not sure general statements can be made. But for this particular event, the forecast maps on the higher resolution models tell it all. There are 2 bands of max snowfall, one in southeast NH into the North Shore, the other over the Cape / Southeast MA. Boston metro sits right in between these 2 bands, and may be just slightly too far west to cash in on the heavier snow. The top band is related to location of a meso-low and the bottom related to location of the best convergence, and you can see those 2 features on this windmap of the 12z Nam: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Nice bump up in SE MA on 15z SREFs f36.gif Some of those are pretty sweet for the capital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 .5-.7? 6-10"? Ratios are great. Sref is bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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