Jonger Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Looks like its time to put Lake Effect chatter in its own thread. Looks like a very active 15 days for Lake Belts. Here's a starter: Keep in mind that Johndee always lowballs the lower peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 Lake Michigan is running 3 degrees above normal.... This WILL bode well for our lower peninsula snow belt posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I sure hope so! At this point, 4 to 8 inches still sounds like paradise after what we have, or haven't had, so far. It looks like he is thinking more of a north northwest wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 This is the 15-20th.... does not include anything before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Hope you guys rock it on the west side of the state! Long time coming. Of course hoping for a couple inches of scraps in SE MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 LES has been scarce this season here in Michiana and the mddle of next week on looks favorable. If I can't get decent system snow anymore I'll take any help geography can give me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Hope we get buried. my snowpack has taken a mojor hit. only 3-4" left here, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I'm sure the UP will do well. The current set-up on the models looks too messy for a significant LES snowfall in most areas. Dry arctic air and shifting winds generally doesn't produce. Still a long ways out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I sure hope so! At this point, 4 to 8 inches still sounds like paradise after what we have, or haven't had, so far. It looks like he is thinking more of a north northwest wind. NNW winds won't do most of West Michigan any good. We need a more westerly wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 The GFS is really struggling to get the cold air down too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 It looks like a parade of clippers may be in the offing too. Probably no big ones, and hopefully varying tracks so all can get in on them...but should we make this a clipper/LES thread? Since patterns like this often can produce several weak disturbances leading to a little synoptic, lake enhanced, and pure lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 It looks like a parade of clippers may be in the offing too. Probably no big ones, and hopefully varying tracks so all can get in on them...but should we make this a clipper/LES thread? Since patterns like this often can produce several weak disturbances leading to a little synoptic, lake enhanced, and pure lake effect snow. I'm sure there will be clipper specific threads, but I really want to focus on the lake belts/recreation areas more so than cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 NNW winds won't do most of West Michigan any good. We need a more westerly wind. This x 1,000! wnw/west is where it is at for W.MI.. My main concern would be moisture supply. Without that we are dead in the water here in W.MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 NNW winds won't do most of West Michigan any good. We need a more westerly wind. Oh, I know....I was just stating what his map looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 This x 1,000! wnw/west is where it is at for W.MI.. My main concern would be moisture supply. Without that we are dead in the water here in W.MI. That has been the issue all winter and MUCH of the past several winters. Every time I read the GRR discussion, I can expect to see a "not much moisture for lake effect" comment. Tiresome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 That has been the issue all winter and MUCH of the past several winters. Every time I read the GRR discussion, I can expect to see a "not much moisture for lake effect" comment. Tiresome. Why i no longer get excited about LES unless i see a closed off L sitting up in N.MI/Superior that is NOT hauling @ss away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Why i no longer get excited about LES unless i see a closed off L sitting up in N.MI/Superior that is NOT hauling @ss away. I am assuming the dang Pacific Jet is the culprit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I am assuming the dang Pacific Jet is the culprit... Several things. That is one. -NAO can cause it was well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Several things. That is one. -NAO can cause it was well.. Wow. Growing up in PA, hearing there was a negative NAO was usually a good thing, because the deep trough over the east usually brought good storms along the coast. It makes perfect sense though, since we would probably be in North flow here. We haven't had much of a -NAO the past couple years much, have we? I don't recall there being much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Wow. Growing up in PA, hearing there was a negative NAO was usually a good thing, because the deep trough over the east usually brought good storms along the coast. It makes perfect sense though, since we would probably be in North flow here. We haven't had much of a -NAO the past couple years much, have we? I don't recall there being much. I hear you. Originally from Philly and lived in the mid Atlantic till i was 31 or so. Both 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 had a -NAO but 09-10 it was pretty severe and thus the record setting/epic snows in the DC/Baltimore/Philly areas.. IF it is a east based -NAO it is not as bad for us. Once in a great while it can pay off ala Jan Blizz of 78. That is a rare exception though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 If there is a more northerly flow later next week is there any hints of a Lake Superior connection? Maybe Blackrock & West MI can catch a band hugging the shoreline for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 If there is a more northerly flow later next week is there any hints of a Lake Superior connection? Maybe Blackrock & West MI can catch a band hugging the shoreline for awhile. They wont catch jack with a northerly flow. Trust me on that. Unless a meso low gets involved i supposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'm relatively new to LES, but this looks classic for western Mich. (sounding from between Grand Rapids and Grand Haven off the 0z GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 If there is a more northerly flow later next week is there any hints of a Lake Superior connection? Maybe Blackrock & West MI can catch a band hugging the shoreline for awhile. They wont catch jack with a northerly flow. Trust me on that. Unless a meso low gets involved i supposed. Being at the max extent inland for LES, you probably need a perfectly west wind.... For Allegan, this flow would suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 They wont catch jack with a northerly flow. Trust me on that. Unless a meso low gets involved i supposed. Maybe I should emphasize: north-northwest direction. That sounding that Thunder Road put up looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Maybe I should emphasize: north-northwest direction. That sounding that Thunder Road put up looks good! Yes, I have seen some good snow showers here on a north northwest wind. As long as there is some westerly component to them. I live a little south of Muskegon and north of Grand Haven and Spring Lake village. A north northwest wind oftens brings the snow showers JUST into our area. I have experienced a couple north northwest events here. Muskegon city itself is a bit too far north and sometimes gets missed while the south side of town (Norton Shores, Grand Haven, and Spring Lake) get clipped by decent snow showers. The main band in a north northwest flow usually hits moreso around Holland and southward. Add the westerly component and that can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Marquette NWS has lowered the snow totals for us. I guess the convergance is not going to set up extending from the Apostle Islands. Hoping they won't lower the totals more, but that is what the trend has been this year when we did get a lake effect event which has been rare so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Nice to see John Dee throwing some pink up on a map finally this winter. I have the itch to get back to the UP to ride some LES belt trails. Looks like its time to put Lake Effect chatter in its own thread. Looks like a very active 15 days for Lake Belts. Here's a starter: Keep in mind that Johndee always lowballs the lower peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Being at the max extent inland for LES, you probably need a perfectly west wind.... For Allegan, this flow would suffice. Here we can work with wsw, west, and ofcourse wnw which is the desired flow for here. Can also catch some off of nw ( see last winter which actually had a couple of these which dropped 4-6 across Battle Creek ) but usually start riding the line. Again i have seen enough nnw flow events to know that outside of Van Buren, Southern/western Allegan, and once in a great while sw Kalamazoo NOBODY else gets jack except the points. Yes once in a RARE while we will get a band to hug the shoreline and clip Muskegon but again that is not the norm and it usually does not last long. Maybe I should emphasize: north-northwest direction. That sounding that Thunder Road put up looks good! Same thing. It hardly does anyone good here in W.MI except the areas i mentioned above. The desired flow in the GRR area is west/wnw or wsw. Here is a classic nnw flow event. Another NNW.. A NNW Flow event that went westerly but faded as it came inland. NNW Flow Now here is west flow LES/Lake enhanced. Here is that nw flow event i mentioned.. NW Flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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