Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[Clinch Leatherwood]

OTS, but the idea of something is there.

 

shredded at the last minute, cold rushes more east than south and it's mushed.

 

The changes within the OP runs inside of 7-8 days is still pretty remarkable after a period in which storms were fairly well established on all models at 6-7 days.

[Allsnow]

-20 850's to NYC

[OSUmetstud]

Funny you mentioned that. Almost to NYC.

 

NW flow blows

[CoastalWx]

While something like the Canadian at day 7 is not impossible...I would file it under "unlikely" so don't be disappointed when models show something OTS. This PV could lead to clippers down the road as it lifts out...something we've mentioned before.

[N. OF PIKE]

half of  NDakota drops about 26-30c in 24 hrs wrt to 850 temps between hr 120 and hr 144.  .

[CT Rain]

While something like the Canadian at day 7 is not impossible...I would file it under "unlikely" so don't be disappointed when models show something OTS. This PV could lead to clippers down the road as it lifts out...something we've mentioned before.

 

Gulf of Maine-effect snow for Nova Scotia!!!!!!

 

NOT BORING!

[CoastalWx]

This is what I meant by having the ridge out west and PV dumbelling. It brings more energy down the Canadian prairies after day 8.

[CoastalWx]

Gulf of Maine-effect snow for Nova Scotia!!!!!!

 

NOT BORING!

 

Visible will look sweet for Steve.

[CT Rain]

Visible will look sweet for Steve.

 

I'm just excited thinking about refreshing the MODIS site for the latest image.

[Allsnow]

Reload at 204

[powderfreak]

NW flow blows

[Damage In Tolland]

Based on everything we've seen today it's safe to say we should have snow laid down even to the coast and then the hounds of hell howl as we shiver with single digit highs

[CoastalWx]

I'm just excited thinking about refreshing the MODIS site for the latest image.

 

[OSUmetstud]

BUF would get into the action after the core of the arctic air passes and the flow turns southwest with WAA.

 

Not much with the initial big cold shot.

 

 

[CT Rain]

Based on everything we've seen today it's safe to say we should have snow laid down even to the coast and then the hounds of hell howl as we shiver with single digit highs

 

Not sure I agree. Really don't see anything that says snow is likely.

[CT Rain]

The Euro is certainly cold. Below normal for once. But damn, that is a BORING pattern. 

[Brian5671]

The Euro is certainly cold. Below normal for once. But damn, that is a BORING pattern. 

great...warm and dry to cold and dry...

[powderfreak]

While something like the Canadian at day 7 is not impossible...I would file it under "unlikely" so don't be disappointed when models show something OTS. This PV could lead to clippers down the road as it lifts out...something we've mentioned before.

There's very little worse than brutal cold and dry, IMO. Does look like a clipper pattern which can be profitable but we need that energy in the flow otherwise we'll only be trying to figure out if the high will be 12F or 16F haha.

[CT Rain]

great/warm and dry to cold and dry...

 

My worst nightmare.

[CoastalWx]

I'd take it. The overall pattern keeps cold with maybe a clipper and a chance for something bigger with such a sharp ridge out west. This is the type of pattern where weenie s/w's may just appear in NW Canada heading SE within like 5 days.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Based on everything we've seen today it's safe to say we should have snow laid down even to the coast and then the hounds of hell howl as we shiver with single digit highs

 

You pay, we lay.

[SnowMan]

Nice! I am under a freezing rain advisory...

[Damage In Tolland]

Not sure I agree. Really don't see anything that says snow is likely.

I think all the signals are now there for a winter event on Tuesday. When you see Norluns and pseudo def bands and models delivering qpf in diff ways its trying to signal an event. Maybe it's only 1-3.. But I think it might end up being like a 3-6 type deal

[CT Rain]

I'd take it. The overall pattern keeps cold with maybe a clipper and a chance for something bigger with such a sharp ridge out west. This is the type of pattern where weenie s/w's may just appear in NW Canada heading SE within like 5 days.

 

Yeah verbatim it blows but if the PV can spread out a bit and the trough is able to sharpen a bit we could see one of those s/ws blow up. Probably will not be modeled well until within 5 days either. 

[Brian5671]

downpour here...38

bye bye to the salty roads...

[CT Rain]

I think all the signals are now there for a winter event on Tuesday. When you see Norluns and pseudo def bands and models delivering qpf in diff ways its trying to signal an event. Maybe it's only 1-3.. But I think it might end up being like a 3-6 type deal

 

This post is a triple bunner.

 

:weenie:

[Damage In Tolland]

This post is a triple bunner.

:weenie:

So you pulling wintry appeal event out of your forecast or will you stay course?

[Mr Torchey]

downpour here...38

bye bye to the salty roads...

 

Yep, just came in and its as nasty as it gets

[CoastalWx]

Yeah verbatim it blows but if the PV can spread out a bit and the trough is able to sharpen a bit we could see one of those s/ws blow up. Probably will not be modeled well until within 5 days either. 

I suppose if the clippers all stay north than it's a noose tying pattern. I guess I just like the overall look, but details TBD. Besides, this may have to wait until post 1/20 to really have any good snow chances.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I love that euro run.