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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

IWXwx

By IWXwx,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

So any change in the mini torch advertised a few days ago ???? I hope to keep the cold around for some time yet. The GFS looks to stay on the cooler side of the spectrum other than the warm ups with the gulf moisture lows. Sure wish the arctic air would grow some and win over the warmth when tropicial moisture is involved. Saw two rounds of thunder this January with heavy rain.... Disaponting potential

 

I would be watching next weekend for the potential of a mini torch, beyond that it should stay below normal until we approach near normal by Thursday into Friday.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

:lmao: I will take it!

Seriously the winter of 1959-60 was a mild winter, not without several snowfalls, but they usually would melt quickly...then the last week of February through all but the last few days of March was a stretch of DEEP winter....on the lap of spring.

 

Not that the CFS wont change, oh, 20 times by the time March actually starts, but its interesting that it had been showing a very warm March until this week, all of a sudden it has flipped the switch to a very cold March.

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OHweather

OHweather

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Haven't really had a chance to look at mid-long range really closely lately, however, very persistent convection remains near and just east of the dateline and doesn't appear to be in any hurry to move east...in addition, convection/lift increasing over the Indian Ocean and appears to be spreading east...either way, we look to keep tropical forcing in rather favorable territory for cold over the eastern US for the foreseeable future. This warm up we will see into the weekend should be relatively short lived as the ensembles develop a nice +PNA by the first half of next week.

 

post-525-0-55517500-1360159235_thumb.gif

 

As we head into February with shorter (?) wavelengths phase 2 MJO generally corresponds to cold across this subforum...phase 3 isn't warm although looks more favorable for potential storminess off the east coast. The ECM ensembles show the MJO taking about two weeks to propagate through phases 2-3...while the GFS ensembles show the MJO circling around in phase 1 for the next two weeks, which may be a response to another pulse trying to move out of the Indian Ocean while the current dateline convection persists. 

 

post-525-0-03899100-1360159503_thumb.gif

 

Either way...first item of interest...past this messy crap Thursday-Friday...is the middle of next week as troughing initially re-establishes over the eastern US:

 

post-525-0-36205300-1360159587_thumb.gif

 

There isn't much Atlantic help yet and the Pacific is just beginning to come around so a high-amplitude solution probably isn't realistic...but with energy moving out of the southwest, and a likely baroclinic zone as polar air begins impinging on a departing/short lived SE ridge an overrunning wintry solution may be on the table, especially for the southeast half of this subforum if the energy moving out of the southwest can stay intact to some extent.

 

Second item of interest is about 10 days out. The GFS ensembles were generally much more agressive in developing a large +PNA ridge 0z than their European counterparts...although the ECM ensembles do still suggest some potential 10-12 days out:

 

post-525-0-75831500-1360160045_thumb.gif

 

The GFS ensembles are very amplified in this timeframe:

 

post-525-0-41491800-1360160114_thumb.gif

 

Either way, the big question during the latter half of January was how much of February would be cold...my initial guess was at least the first half would be cold. It appears as though after a brief warm up (yes, before mid-month) that the Pacific should cooperate as convection persists near the dateline and that we should cool off. The European suite appears generally less conducive with some lower heights persisting near the AK region although still shows a rise in the PNA next week.

 

The GFS suite is also much more aggressive in the development of a -NAO in the mid-range. In winters that saw similar stratospheric warming in January, there was a nice correlation to a -NAO in February as I posted in here a couple of times...in addition, storms riding up through the eastern third of the US/Canada will tend to raise heights over the N. Atlantic/NE Canada/Greenland...so this stormy weather over the next week over the east and Great Lakes may help coax a -NAO by the latter portions of next week...we'll see. A GFS ensemble type pattern may support a very high amplitude solution with both suites suggesting some sort of a STJ presence in the mid-February timeframe although if the NAO goes negative it may support a large east coast low that isn't particularly fruitful for this region of the country. Still a good amount of time to watch either way.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Thanks! Hopefully the region sees something out of either the pattern change next week or perhaps just after mid-month as the pattern remains amplified and more energy potentially moves out of the southwest.

We have picked up about 18 inches of snow since Jan 21st in what was advertised by many (not you) to be a "boring dry" period. Granted most of it was fluffy, but keep us cold, and it will snow. So Im very happy that those talks by LC about spring beginning on Valentines Day and torch, ridge, etc seem to be as far from the truth as possible. Winter looks to remain locked in for a while, so hopefully we get into a stormy pattern where ALL can get a BIG snowstorm.

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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

Posted
Posted

in the long range disco and my thoughts I would direct you to the Minnesota Forecaster site, look at  my post dated 12/7 1145pm....I'm known there as Randy in Champlin.  I will post it here, but I don't if any of the links will work.

 

 

First of all the Minnesota forecast link......http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2013/02/the-clipper-train-is-rolling.html#comment-form

 

 

And what I posted there....hopefully the links work here:

 

One of the analog years I have been leaning on heavily is 1967, as I liked the conditions that where shown back then in November as compared to this November, there fore I was calling for DEC-Feb temps to run -2 compared to the 30 year average of 1981-2010. If it weren't for the major torch that we saw in the 1st part of DEC, I feel that it was pretty close. MY Feb forecast that I put out at the end of Jan of a -3° looks pretty good at this point.

Here is what March 1967 looked like compared to the 1981-2010 average for temps.

http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/71498824137215218png1967analogyear_zpse723ae64.png

Notice the colder than normal air over NW Canada, and the warmer than normal air just to our south, the area between the colder air and warmer air is where the storm track should develop. The current MJO forecast is hinting at that as we move into phase's 2-4.

To add fuel to the fire here is what the CFS V2 is showing.

http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/summaryCFSv2NaT2m201303gifCFSforecast_zpsed2e394d.gif

To me this looks like a very active and cold March, could it be what most of you young ones have heard from your elders of a major winter storm during Tourney time???? stay tuned....
 

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

in the long range disco and my thoughts I would direct you to the Minnesota Forecaster site, look at  my post dated 12/7 1145pm....I'm known there as Randy in Champlin.  I will post it here, but I don't if any of the links will work.

 

 

First of all the Minnesota forecast link......http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2013/02/the-clipper-train-is-rolling.html#comment-form

 

 

And what I posted there....hopefully the links work here:

 

One of the analog years I have been leaning on heavily is 1967, as I liked the conditions that where shown back then in November as compared to this November, there fore I was calling for DEC-Feb temps to run -2 compared to the 30 year average of 1981-2010. If it weren't for the major torch that we saw in the 1st part of DEC, I feel that it was pretty close. MY Feb forecast that I put out at the end of Jan of a -3° looks pretty good at this point.

Here is what March 1967 looked like compared to the 1981-2010 average for temps.

http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/71498824137215218png1967analogyear_zpse723ae64.png

Notice the colder than normal air over NW Canada, and the warmer than normal air just to our south, the area between the colder air and warmer air is where the storm track should develop. The current MJO forecast is hinting at that as we move into phase's 2-4.

To add fuel to the fire here is what the CFS V2 is showing.

http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/summaryCFSv2NaT2m201303gifCFSforecast_zpsed2e394d.gif

To me this looks like a very active and cold March, could it be what most of you young ones have heard from your elders of a major winter storm during Tourney time???? stay tuned....

 

I was thinking last year...and we ended up record warm...so you damn right Im thinking again this year. This region of the country has had some monster March snowstorms in the past. In fact, it would take a lot of work from the climo geeks to make it  official, but I could argue that some areas may actually have better Mar snowstorm climo than Feb (note I said snowSTORM climo, obviously Feb is the superior winter month). Well, we have not had any meaningful March snowstorms since 2008 (the compact early March NORTHERN MI storm of last year notwithstanding). In fact, while we got lucky with two advisory snowfalls here in Detroit in March 2011, much of the region has barely had a shovelable March snow from 2009-2012. We are due. And things in climo eventually balance out. See Toronto getting a huge snowstorm after years of futility, see Chicago getting a 2nd straight sucktastic snow season following 4 very snowy ones. So it is time. Im....dreaming....of a white....Easter......just like 2008. ;)

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