Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[wxmeddler]

lol... man that convection over the Caribbean is just roaring...

 

No kidding, I just took a peek over at the Dr. Masters forum at Wunderground.. It's a weenie party house over there.

Paging Bendy mod and Josh to the ATL tropics thread!

[am19psu]

I'm here. And nonplussed

[Superstorm93]

With no recon until mid tomorrow, I would pretty much expect the mission to find a tropical depression given the increased organization and hefty convection.

Pretty decent uptick in activity from last week...

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[Ed Lizard]

Speaking of weenie bait, I think I see a little pink in some of these GFDL ensembles...

 

[Sunny and Warm]

For Ed:

 

 

[LakeEffectKing]

W. Car. system looks good!  Might be time to break out my first map of the season!   I know Josh gets a tingle when I start posting on the tropical threads!

[Ed Lizard]

W. Car. system looks good!  Might be time to break out my first map of the season!   I know Josh gets a tingle when I start posting on the tropical threads!

Been almost a year since he chased in Louisiana.  I'd prefer the Panhandle myself, but beggars and choosers and all that.  Actually, I'd prefer Brownsville, excitement of a storm plus rain for the yard, but I don't see that happening.

[Sunny and Warm]

W. Car. system looks good!  Might be time to break out my first map of the season!   I know Josh gets a tingle when I start posting on the tropical threads!

rumors of your death were marginally exaggerated. 

 

welcome home...

[Ground Scouring]

The MJO's entering Phase 1 is doing wonders for the Atlantic.

 

Early indications suggest that 93L could be a big threat to the U.S. and/or islands should it remain organized. Latest model trends toward the SW (along with the ECMWF's northward bias) indicate that it should stay over warmer water (=greater instability) over the next three days.

 

As for 92L, there is no way that it will not be Erin in 12 hours. The organization on satellite suggests at least a TD per T-numbers, especially as UL divergence improves due to an expanding anticyclone.

[wxmx]

In general, models have moved slightly west in general. HWRF bailed the loser's camp (W GoM) and joined forces with the N GoM group, while the Ukie is wipershielding and is back with the W GoM camp

[am19psu]

The MJO's entering Phase 1 is doing wonders for the Atlantic.

 

Early indications suggest that 93L could be a big threat to the U.S. and/or islands should it remain organized. Latest model trends toward the SW (along with the ECMWF's northward bias) indicate that it should stay over warmer water (=greater instability) over the next three days.

 

As for 92L, there is no way that it will not be Erin in 12 hours. The organization on satellite suggests at least a TD per T-numbers, especially as UL divergence improves due to an expanding anticyclone.

MJO is probably still over the Pacific. You're seeing the signal of the CCKW superimposed on the RMMs. Just FWIW, this isn't the real MJO active period

[Ground Scouring]

MJO is probably still over the Pacific. You're seeing the signal of the CCKW superimposed on the RMMs. Just FWIW, this isn't the real MJO active period

Yes, I should have mentioned that we are still in the early stages and that the CCKW is the main signal at this time. As to 93L, I think that, given the fact that some of the main dynamical models have struggled with the overall pattern, the possibility of a track farther SW, closer to that of the non-dynamical models, may be more likely, allowing a more favorable outcome to development.

[Cheeznado]

15Z RPM backed way off, now just a weak low western GOM 72 hours. Only the HWRF and GGEM have any sort of significant development.

[bluewave]

The CV system has a shot at becoming a tropical storm before it weakens approaching 40w.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ground Scouring]

The CV system has a shot at becoming a tropical storm before it weakens approaching 40w.

That weakening trend, combined with a more-southerly path through 72 hours, might increase the risk to the islands and/or the U.S. down the road. Of course, that is a substantial question mark.

[wxsmwhrms]

92L certainly looks as if it's getting increasingly organized on visible imagery.  The 12Z Euro definitely seems to have a more favorable upper pattern the next 72 hours - but yet shows the greatest increase in 850 mb vorticity as it approaches the coast, likely due to support from right entrance region of upper jet.

[Drz1111]

92L sure looks like a weak cyclone on visible.

[Mike.Ventrice]

Nice little burst of convection (maybe associated with a vortical hot tower?) with 93L:

 

[Floydbuster]

92L reminds me alot of Gordon 2000 and Cindy 2005.

 

[SN_Lover]

15Z RPM backed way off, now just a weak low western GOM 72 hours. Only the HWRF and GGEM have any sort of significant development.

I think we will only get a better idea once the disturbance makes the passage over the Yucatan. Models seem to have a tough time with tropical systems close to land. 

[Superstorm93]

Calling all planes! Calling all planes! All planes to 92L! 

 

It's like Flight of the Valkyries  

NOUS42 KNHC 141729
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 14 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-074 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS......MISSIONS ADDED
1. SUSPECT AREA - NEAR YUCATAN PENINISULA
FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 15/1700Z A. 16/0000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. NOAA9 02BBA SURV
C. 15/1430Z C. 15/1730Z
D. 19.0N 87.0W D. NA
E. 15/1630Z TO 15/2000Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
A. 15/2100Z A. 16/0900Z
B. NOAA3 03BBA RADAR B. NOAA2 O405A CYCLONE
C. 15/1800Z C. 16/0600Z
D. 19.8N 87.8W D. 21.6N 89.1W
E. 15/2000Z TO 16/0030Z E. 16/0730Z TO 16/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 71
A. 16/1200Z, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
C. 16/0930Z
D. 22.0N 89.5W
E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. 
B. A POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION AT 16/1730Z.
C. ANOTHER P-3 MISSION AT 16/1800Z

[bluewave]

That weakening trend, combined with a more-southerly path through 72 hours, might increase the risk to the islands and/or the U.S. down the road. Of course, that is a substantial question mark.

 

The 12z Euro has it as a tropical wave crossing near Puerto Rico later next week.

[AutoPenalti]

Calling all planes! Calling all planes! All planes to 92L!

It's like Flight of the Valkyries

NOUS42 KNHC 141729
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 14 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-074 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS......MISSIONS ADDED
1. SUSPECT AREA - NEAR YUCATAN PENINISULA
FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 15/1700Z A. 16/0000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. NOAA9 02BBA SURV
C. 15/1430Z C. 15/1730Z
D. 19.0N 87.0W D. NA
E. 15/1630Z TO 15/2000Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
A. 15/2100Z A. 16/0900Z
B. NOAA3 03BBA RADAR B. NOAA2 O405A CYCLONE
C. 15/1800Z C. 16/0600Z
D. 19.8N 87.8W D. 21.6N 89.1W
E. 15/2000Z TO 16/0030Z E. 16/0730Z TO 16/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 71
A. 16/1200Z, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
C. 16/0930Z
D. 22.0N 89.5W
E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. 
B. A POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION AT 16/1730Z.
C. ANOTHER P-3 MISSION AT 16/1800Z

Recons, recons everywhere.

[Superstorm93]

Finally a decent disturbance to track...

 

92L should be able to develop tomorrow before hitting the Yucatan. How much it actually does develop before doing so is somewhat important. For example a moderate tropical storm should fair a little better than a 30 knot depression once this enters the Gulf.

 

FWIW, SHIPS was run of the OFPI track and brought 92L up to 50 knots by 84 hours 

 

 

[wxsmwhrms]

Buoy 42056 120 nm ESE of Cozumel, reporting east winds (100 deg) sustained at 21 kt and MSLP down to 1010.5 mb.

[Superstorm93]

93L might get the renumber first...

 

 

 

 

 

AL, 93, 201308141745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1310N, 2180W, , 2, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, MT, VIM, 3, 1010 /////, , , MET10, LLCC, T, DT=1.0 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.0 FTBO DT
AL, 93, 201308141800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1290N, 2130W, , 3, 25, 2, , 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, CL, VI, 5, 1010 /////, , , MET10, CSC, T, convection deep occurring

 

OFPI track was run on 93L as well...

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL932013  08/14/13  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    32    36    41    52    58    61    61    59    58    58    59
V (KT) LAND       25    28    32    36    41    52    58    61    61    59    58    58    59
V (KT) LGE mod    25    27    30    32    35    41    49    57    61    63    64    66    68
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

[wxmx]

OSCAT and ASCAT show mostly easterly winds with 92L, but vis imagery shows that there's a budding mid level low, and the overall structure is getting better organized.

[Ed Lizard]

Looking at vis and IR satellite, (on vis, looks like high cirrus getting transparent enough to see clouds below),  I *think* it is about to lose a fair amount of convection for a time.  I think it might still be in that 'pulsing' stage.

[Superstorm93]

Looking at vis and IR satellite, (on vis, looks like high cirrus getting transparent enough to see clouds below),  I *think* it is about to lose a fair amount of convection for a time.  I think it might still be in that 'pulsing' stage.

 

True. It does appear to be trying to get slightly more symmetric as the day rolls on though. One good DMAX again, and recon should find a classifiable system tomorrow. 

 

After that, we get to deal with intensity and track...

[LakeEffectKing]

rumors of your death were marginally exaggerated. 

 

welcome home...

LOL!  This season has sucked so far....no reason to even sniff the tropical pages all the while I've been up to my ears in family fun, projects....ie life!!  We'll have to pick and choose our spots this season, IMO.  The next 10 days or so is "one" of those spots.