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Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

HurricaneJosh

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VodkaLass

VodkaLass

Posted
Posted
Noaa.gov working fine from the UK, weird!
 
 
 
two_atl.gif

GIS data:  .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BEFORMING BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS AND THE CAYMANISLANDS WHERE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CONCENTRATED DURING THEPAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONALDEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ASIT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULAAND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULAAND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THISDISTURBANCE.2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMLOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDSCONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONSARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OFDAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMINGA TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THELOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICHCOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OFTHIS SYSTEM.FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.  COMMENTSON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO
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wxsmwhrms

wxsmwhrms

Posted
Posted

The european models (Ukie and Euro) have yielded and are now in the N GoM camp along with the GFS, GFDL and FIM. Now the less trustable CMC, NavGem and HWRF are in the W GoM camp. Difficult not to lean toward the former group.

 

The overall pattern with the large trough developing just leans that way as well.  Anything that goes toward the W Gulf would have to remain quite weak one would think.  If anything even semi-robust develops, the deeper flow would want to pick it up and take it toward the northern Gulf.  As you say, while EC still doesn't get much going at the surface, it does now show a 850 mb vorticity max that goes up toward SE LA.

 

While the upper pattern doesn't seem great for really significant development, certainly seems like a setup where some right entrance region upper jet support could help out.

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted 
000
NOUS42 KNHC 141433
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 14 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-074

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA - NEAR YUCATAN PENINISULA
       FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70            FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 15/1700Z                     A. 16/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST           B. NOAA9 02BBA SURV
       C. 15/1430Z                     C. 15/1730Z
       D. 19.0N 87.0W                  D. NA
       E. 15/1630Z TO 15/2000Z         E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT             F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
       A. 16/1200Z, 1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
       C. 16/0930Z
       D. 22.0N 89.5W
       E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. 
       B. A POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION AT 16/1730Z.

GOES14312013226rzyD01.jpg

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wxsmwhrms

wxsmwhrms

Posted
Posted

Nam agrees with ggem. I don't see where they are getting a westerly steering flow from so i am still doubtfull.

The fact that the NAM and GGEM are showing the same thing on a tropical system makes it much less likely to occur - seriously.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Nam agrees with ggem. I don't see where they are getting a westerly steering flow from so i am still doubtfull.

 

 

The NAM, on close examination, escapes some vorticity towards the Northern Gulf coast, then develops what is left.  Even using the NAM's own 500 mb or 700 mb loops, its system should probably start heading Northeast into the break in the ridge beyond 84 hours, it doesn't look like the Western ridge gets over the top to keep steering it Westerly.

 

This could be why NAM is in the same camp of more fun but less reliable models like the Canadian and NavGEM.

 

6Z FIM is a 50 knot storm landfalling just SW of New Orleans Saturday evening.  That sounds like a decent upper bound for a moderately sheared system.

post-138-0-26830000-1376494117_thumb.png

post-138-0-97093200-1376494129_thumb.png

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

A nice example of a CCKW helping to enhance equatorial outflow. Dry Kelvin waves in the traditional sense are confined to the equator and low latitudes (although South American cold surges northward and Extratropical/Tropical interaction can adjust the latitudinal position of a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave). 

 

Since CCKWs only roam the low-latitudes, it would make sense that their major divergent contribution would be on the equatorial leg of a disturbance. We saw this with Dorian, and now we are seeing it again with 93L.

 

11junh0.png

 

2h2p7ix.png

 

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

Posted
Posted

12Z GFS is a mess.  It brings the primary circulation at 850 mb inland into Quintana Roo, broadening and weakening it.  It then goes on to spit out various MCV-like lobes of higher vorticity towards the NE into the panhandle of FL that become ingested into the trough, while a broader but weaker LL-circulation maximum festers in the W Gulf. 

 

Very different evolution from the previous 8 runs of the GFS, but could happen.  Certainly a low-predictability event whenever you have both the potential for land interaction and trough interaction in the same forecast. 

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Eyeballing vis loop, besides mid level turning Northeast of low level turning offshore Nicaragua/Honduras border, I can see a little hint of a circulation to the West off Southern Belize, or, to sound like Storm 2K, until recon gets in tomorrow and fixes the center, models could be unreliable.

 

The high altitude mission tomorrow evening should help, I assume much of that data will get assimilated into tomorrow evenings 0Z models (Friday mornings 0Z in Europe)

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wxmeddler

wxmeddler

Posted
Posted

No but it heads towards New Orleans as a hurricane.. prob issues with conv. param but still fun to watch in the model world.

 

I think I'm correct in saying that WSI's RPM is a WRF-ARW core running at 4km res with no parametrization convection.

 

Edit: Though with no parametrization, that also can lead to other things like positive feedback convection which could explain the result as posted.

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

If you guys saw what our RPM put out last run, I think the weenies would come out :)

We had the same discussion of the RPM last year in a broadcast met group. I can't find the papers I had on it but the bulk of it was that since the RPM is based off the WRF ARW which a paper found that the accuracy of the ARW's track and intensity forecast is highly dependent on vortex initialization, the farther off shore a TC is away from the denser atmospheric data network over the continental US the less defined the vortex initialization will be. So the RPM and ARW tend to have horrible forecasts until the TC gets closer to the coast where more data is available and the model can produce a more accurate vortex. Because of this, if the TC does not have a decent vortex either, ARW and RPM will struggle with the forecast (as it's probably doing right now). The RPM did extremely well with Issac with timing and location of LF even the wobbles in path after coming ashore, but it didn't really start to grasp the forecast until about 24-36 hours before LF and the vortex was closer to the coast and of course was well defined. 

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