Paweatherguy1 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 KPIT is only predicting a low of 6 out here for Tuesday....but I am thinking that there is a chance things could be at least 10 degrees colder. Also, I really think PIT will have trouble getting out of the single digits as well on Tuesday and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Alot on how many places can get below 0 are going to depend on skycover. With it being so cloudy near the lakes, ones best chance are going to be those that mainly are relatively unaffected from normal LE events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 It was 29 degrees when I went to bed last night. I woke up this morning and it was 44 degrees. Some pretty good wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Holy wind again... It's been roaring for the past few hours. I see CTP has thrown up some more wind advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I live in the Parkway Plaza apartments, specifically the building on Logan Avenue between Pizza Hut and the high school grounds. And I live at Lion's Gate. It's awesome to have two red taggers for neighbors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Holy wind again... It's been roaring for the past few hours. I see CTP has thrown up some more wind advisories. I would have to guess a few gusts have been over 50 here at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nam printing out .1 to .25...prbly wrong though?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 In this scenario JST's elevation (about 2200ft) is a factor. The cold windy NW flow will likely ensure little diurnal range in temps. Also, with 850 and 925 temps progged to be approx -22 (-8ºF) and -16 (3ºF) respectively at these levels, the high elevation stations in the west are simply closer to these levels and thus colder. Those west and northwest stations probably drop below zero at some point Tuesday and Wednesday. The central stations are going to depend on if we can get the wind to settle down one of those nights and have it clear out. Lack of a true deep snowpack is probably going to prevent it from really getting ridiculous if we end up with a calmer night. Regardless, its going to be a very cold first half of the week. As for snow chances, we're going to have two frontal passages. Sunday the cold front and Monday the arctic front. Tomorrow there's a chance some squalls could survive to places like MDT but instability could be lacking. It'll be something to watch everywhere as the squalls would present a flash freeze threat and potential dangerous travel especially on interstates. Also, about the possible late week storm.. I didn't really look closely the first time but the Euro's take would be a REALLY cold event if that came to fruition. 850 temps are less than -10ºC in the southern areas that would see the best QPF (0.3-0.4ish) and surface temps would probably be in the mid teens. The Euro never really gets rid of the cold the whole week while the GFS tries to get rid of it more quickly and thus presents the mix threat it had for the Friday storm (18z GFS fwiw colder with same overall track). Should be an interesting battle this week. Since there's no real big shift in the pattern coming I suspect the Arctic air will try to have some staying power and not be easily evacuated. The new Euro has a further north track, with a mix here. This is going to be a tough call with that big high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 The new Euro has a further north track, with a mix here. This is going to be a tough call with that big high to the north. Yea i like the role reversal we had last night with the GFS going south and the euro north enough to mix. I think this scenario is going to end up favoring snow or at least all frozen for pretty much all of us. 6z GFS had a nice look for PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 What a waste of an airmass this week. No organized snow threat and a lack of snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 What a waste of an airmass this week. No organized snow threat and a lack of snow pack. You don't see a threat for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 You don't see a threat for Friday? Nope, but I hope somehow I turn out to be very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nope, but I hope somehow I turn out to be very wrong. Why? Even for up here? I guess we're due a miss, we've been on a bit of a roll lately. We've cashed in on the last three threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 New GFS is a mix in true central PA but very close to being all snow. .50 qpf...MDT gets .43 and looks icy. It gets close to freezing and may go over in between the 6 hour intervals but underestimating CAD and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Why? Even for up here? I guess we're due a miss, we've been on a bit of a roll lately. We've cashed in on the last three threats. Outside the traditional snowbelt region of PA/NY I believe the winter is largely over. The overall lack of an El Nino and unfavorable pacific is a major hindrance for warning criteria snows. I should have prefaced my previous statement that I do not get excited unless 10" or more of snow is forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Outside the traditional snowbelt region of PA/NY I believe the winter is largely over. The overall lack of an El Nino and unfavorable pacific is a major hindrance for warning criteria snows. I should have prefaced my previous statement that I do not get excited unless 10" or more of snow is forecast. Geesh, that's a pretty high bar to set. I'd be okay with the rest of the winter going the way it has. We're at 19.3, at the end of Jan average is 22.9. Not out of the question we end January a bit above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Why? Even for up here? I guess we're due a miss, we've been on a bit of a roll lately. We've cashed in on the last three threats. I'm playing the hot hand till proven otherwise for our particular area. Dec 26th and this past Wednesday's storm were supposed to be pretty extensive mixing events and they ended up all flakes and about 3 pellets of sleet. The antecedent cold air mass and the flat running track of this fairly weak system screams a snow or snow/sleet scenario dependent on track in the true central under I-80. Wouldn't need to be too much further south than the GFS has it to make it snow for all of us. I'd also consider the potential of the system trying to pop a secondary on the coast as well as it tracks toward (or into) PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Outside the traditional snowbelt region of PA/NY I believe the winter is largely over. The overall lack of an El Nino and unfavorable pacific is a major hindrance for warning criteria snows. I should have prefaced my previous statement that I do not get excited unless 10" or more of snow is forecast. i havent seen a 10" snowstorm since the feb storm a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Geesh, that's a pretty high bar to set. I'd be okay with the rest of the winter going the way it has. We're at 19.3, at the end of Jan average is 22.9. Not out of the question we end January a bit above normal. I love snow, don't get me wrong, but it's hard to get excited over a 2" event. i havent seen a 10" snowstorm since the feb storm a few years ago. Yea, feast or famine as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Lol I think 2009 to 10 spoiled some of us...not anyone north of I 80 though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Outside the traditional snowbelt region of PA/NY I believe the winter is largely over. The overall lack of an El Nino and unfavorable pacific is a major hindrance for warning criteria snows. I should have prefaced my previous statement that I do not get excited unless 10" or more of snow is forecast. I'd argue if winter has really gotten started in especially the PA snowbelt aside from the synoptic events we've had. The LES regime (or lack thereof) has picked up right where it left off last winter. The regulars close to the lakes should do pretty well this week, but down toward the Laurels the setup is certainly less than ideal with the more westerly flow and associated short fetch off the lakes. Lack of good NAO related blocking has also largely kept the big coastal storm option off the table and relegated us to these more run of the mill type threats. I'll take a solid 4-6 inch event any day though. The last storm that had 10+ here was Feb 10th, 2010. I think that winter gave the Mid Atlantic the impression that those kind of events are a dime a dozen haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I'd argue if winter has really gotten started in especially the PA snowbelt aside from the synoptic events we've had. The LES regime (or lack thereof) has picked up right where it left off last winter. The regulars close to the lakes should do pretty well this week, but down toward the Laurels the setup is certainly less than ideal with the more westerly flow and associated short fetch off the lakes. Lack of good NAO related blocking has also largely kept the big coastal storm option off the table and relegated us to these more run of the mill type threats. I'll take a solid 4-6 inch event any day though. The last storm that had 10+ here was Feb 10th, 2010. I think that winter gave the Mid Atlantic the impression that those kind of events are a dime a dozen haha. Ours was the early March 2011 fluke storm that gave us 10" when 1-2 was forecasted. Looks like our late week storm is another 3-6" threat like last Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I love snow, don't get me wrong, but it's hard to get excited over a 2" event. Yea, feast or famine as of late. I think we've been unique here in AOO/UNV/IPT compared to others in this thread as we've had one 8-9" event and two 4-5" events. The late week storm looks like a 3-6" type event - if we stay all snow, which this winter hasn't been a problem for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Ours was the early March 2011 fluke storm that gave us 10" when 1-2 was forecasted. Looks like our late week storm is another 3-6" threat like last Tuesday. Euros colder again, .47" at UNV with -7ºC 850s all event. Sound like a good ratio snowfall there. MDT and even LNS looks like they check out as all or mostly snow just from the rough text glance. Pit probably has some mixing issues. Seems like a general .4-.5" for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Euros colder again, .47" at UNV with -7ºC 850s all event. Sound like a good ratio snowfall there. MDT and even LNS looks like they check out as all or mostly snow just from the rough text glance. Pit probably has some mixing issues. Seems like a general .4-.5" for all. Pit always has mixing issues. That damn warm tongue of death! I'm gonna work on taking this thing about 80 miles further south so we all get snow only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Pit always has mixing issues. That damn warm tongue of death! I'm gonna work on taking this thing about 80 miles further south so we all get snow only. You bet. Get you up to or just above normal as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Tomorrow doesn't look half bad for a "non-event" here in State College. Maybe 2-3 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Nice on the ECM...what kind of ratios would we be talking for UNV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Tomorrow doesn't look half bad for a "non-event" here in State College. Maybe 2-3 inches? Indeed. Although I am wondering if our coldest temps of the winter comes after the late week storm if we get a deeper snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 yea whats tmrw looking like an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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