Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 lol just as I say that nam backs off. Most outlets saying dusting maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 lol just as I say that nam backs off. Most outlets saying dusting maybe. Ya, 18z NAM and 15z SREFs are pretty significantly drier. Still looking like at least an inch, but 2-3 looks more like a stretch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Ya, 18z NAM and 15z SREFs are pretty significantly drier. Still looking like at least an inch, but 2-3 looks more like a stretch now. Where are you seeing at least an inch? Most models have under .1" of QPF. Will ratios be high or are you counting on some lake enhancement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 An inch on the high side with this dry air could be nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 An inch on the high side with this dry air could be nothing. That's usually the case with these. Could be nothing, could be a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Hoping for a surprise.. almost feeling a surprise. If we can even get .1 it could be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 new snowfall maps on nws http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowmaps/index.php?tab=forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 new snowfall maps on nws http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowmaps/index.php?tab=forecast I noticed that a couple days ago, matches the format most of the surrounding offices have been using. I think alot of locations could see up to an inch tomorrow, maybe someone lucky gets a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I noticed that a couple days ago, matches the format most of the surrounding offices have been using. I think alot of locations could see up to an inch tomorrow, maybe someone lucky gets a couple. my forecast shows 2-4 for tomorrow / tom. night M.L.King Day Snow showers, mainly after 1pm. High near 25. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Monday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -7. West wind 13 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Where are you seeing at least an inch? Most models have under .1" of QPF. Will ratios be high or are you counting on some lake enhancement? Hi-Res NAM and SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 New NAM and 21z SREF's look much less robust with snow off the mountains tomorrow. But like I said earlier I think a lot of locations probably get a period of snow or snow showers that could drop up to an inch. There does look like a weak wave running thru Wed night in the NAM lol range with a light snowfall. Some signs of this on the SREF's as well. This is preceding the primary event threat at the end of the week. It could be important though in terms of setting the baroclinic boundary the low is going to be running on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I endorse that 0z GFS solution for the Friday storm. Would be a nice 3-5" event for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 I endorse that 0z GFS solution for the Friday storm. Would be a nice 3-5" event for all Could be more in parts of the southern half of Penn depending on ratios too.. nice chilly run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I endorse that 0z GFS solution for the Friday storm. Would be a nice 3-5" event for allI will ALWAYS take a 2-5/3-5 event with no complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I will ALWAYS take a 2-5/3-5 event with no complaints. Did you write that or did your wife? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Your mom actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euros very cold. Everyone including the far southeast and the Pit/SW PA vicinity stay at -9ºC or colder at 850 for the whole event and have generally .3-.4" QPF wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Euros very cold. Everyone including the far southeast and the Pit/SW PA vicinity stay at -9ºC or colder at 850 for the whole event and have generally .3-.4" QPF wise. Surface temps are in the teens most of the time, too. What does that mean for ratios? 20:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised at a very nice little event for central and south central PA. With QPF hovering around .3-.5" and with a fresh cold air regime in place, ratios will make this event a low end WSW event in my opinion. I honestly would not be surprised at totals ranging from 6-12" with it being more realistically towards the 6-8". I'm still very much interested in the mid range storm that has showed up on every run for the last 3 days. I have noticed this projected storm was a warm GLC, but it looks to have slightly trended towards the more traditional Ohio valley slider. This system is the juicier of the two, but I'm hoping the colder solution keeps the trend. As long as the mid west trough isn't as amplified, I could see this event being of interest other than the wet solution the GFS has now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Surface temps are in the teens most of the time, too. What does that mean for ratios? 20:1? Def would be a greater than 10:1 event for sure. Precisely determining how much greater hinges on all those factors associated with snow growth and matching up your best omegas (lift) within the ideal dendritic growth zone (-12ºC to -18ºC). My very basic guesstimate would be that it could be generally a 14-15:1 type snowfall with perhaps a small region where conditions are ideal for more of an 18-20:1 type s-l ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Your mom actually. My mother's a SAINT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Nice little event unfolding if everything holds steady. Can't agree with potter on a 6-12 inches in parts, at the most I could see 7-8 but no way 12. If 12 I hope southern pa gets the highest totals, we've gotten the shaft all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised at a very nice little event for central and south central PA. With QPF hovering around .3-.5" and with a fresh cold air regime in place, ratios will make this event a low end WSW event in my opinion. I honestly would not be surprised at totals ranging from 6-12" with it being more realistically towards the 6-8". I'm still very much interested in the mid range storm that has showed up on every run for the last 3 days. I have noticed this projected storm was a warm GLC, but it looks to have slightly trended towards the more traditional Ohio valley slider. This system is the juicier of the two, but I'm hoping the colder solution keeps the trend. As long as the mid west trough isn't as amplified, I could see this event being of interest other than the wet solution the GFS has now. It was only about 3 or 4 days ago the GFS had this system as the first in a line of endless cutters. Also noteworthy for the longer range, the always testy MJO guidance is starting to show the MJO making a trek into phase 8 with some models. NCEP guidance takes it pretty deeply into 8 heading for 1 while Euro guidance eventually gets it into 8 at a bit lesser magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Hi-Res NAM and SREFs. Last two runs of the regular old NAM have about an inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 New NAM still has around an inch or so. As for the talk about dry air, I guess I don't see that as a factor. Not stopping the light snow we have right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I'd argue if winter has really gotten started in especially the PA snowbelt aside from the synoptic events we've had. The LES regime (or lack thereof) has picked up right where it left off last winter. The regulars close to the lakes should do pretty well this week, but down toward the Laurels the setup is certainly less than ideal with the more westerly flow and associated short fetch off the lakes. Lack of good NAO related blocking has also largely kept the big coastal storm option off the table and relegated us to these more run of the mill type threats. I'll take a solid 4-6 inch event any day though. The last storm that had 10+ here was Feb 10th, 2010. I think that winter gave the Mid Atlantic the impression that those kind of events are a dime a dozen haha. Things are looking good for the first half of Feb: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38643-medium-range-long-range-thread/?p=2024260 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 new snowfall maps on nws http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowmaps/index.php?tab=forecast I think CTP has been doing a great job this winter with snowfall products this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 here is a good idea how some of us feel around here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I think CTP has been doing a great job this winter with snowfall products this winter. When he posted that last night, CTP had most areas at <1. Now State College is in the 1-2 range. Which is a reasonable update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 When he posted that last night, CTP had most areas at <1. Now State College is in the 1-2 range. Which is a reasonable update. Yeah, especially with their wording implying heavier stuff will come through in the afternoon. Been snowing lightly here for a while with a dusting on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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