Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 it's back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 My wagon is still hitched to this car. Just hope it doesn't leave me stranded in the desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I would feel better if we had -NAO/-AO/+PNA/-EPO & MJO 1,2 or 8. Better chance end of January and all of February . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 At least -NAO/-AO/+PNA!!!! Right about a flush Bob but winter is not over yet and it's only the beginning. Those 3 are key and I believe before winter is out, we will all get at least 1 decent event. I have always been conservative in the long range and for any snow event in this area. We get robbed more then anyone it seems like. 96+7= 2003 / 2003+7= 2010 / 2010+7= 2017 I guess 4 more years before the Royal Flush!! Lol... I hope everyone has a Happy New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I agree about the bad luck. I guess also some people feel uncomfortable with their "name in lights" so to speak. I should have asked Bob before creating a thread with his name attached, but I wasn't the one who gave that storm it's designation in the first place. It worked out great, but I won't do it again. The only knock I'd have about our sub forum is that we tend to take things a bit too seriously sometimes. It's supposed to be fun. If it were to be named, however, I would give it to Matt. Nah, it's allgood. When I first saw the thread my weenie ego was stroked but as things progressed it took away from my usual fun with storms so it was pretty clear to me that one and done was it. I did do a good job being level headed throughout and kept up with unbiased analysis whether it was good or bad news. And at the end of the day the storm produced *ok* so I didn't have to delete my account and come back incognito. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 At least -NAO/-AO/+PNA!!!! Right about a flush Bob but winter is not over yet and it's only the beginning. Those 3 are key and I believe before winter is out, we will all get at least 1 decent event. I have always been conservative in the long range and for any snow event in this area. We get robbed more then anyone it seems like. 96+7= 2003 / 2003+7= 2010 / 2010+7= 2017 I guess 4 more years before the Royal Flush!! Lol... I hope everyone has a Happy New Year. we also had 19" in 2000 (only Baltimore though Brad) and the 7 year rule might as well be for seasons, as they are our 3 best seasons, not just 3 times of blizzards. Especially since 2009-2010 gave us 3 20" storms, and Jan 30, 2010 was a 10-20 incher in S MD and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 I have a terrible weather memory, so the names help me remember. I can't do what Matt and Ian do and list a bunch of dates and know what happened on those dates. Oh, remember 1/3/04 or 12/7/95 or 3/9/09 or 2/17/82? actually...I think it may have snowed on 2/17/82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 actually...I think it may have snowed on 2/17/82 it did at bwi rain/zr changed that was a great winter but w/o the fanfare plane crash storm gets all the talk, but there were plenty of other light/mod events and it was cold too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 don't look now, but the GFS really looks to bring this event north, at least thru 90 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 actually...I think it may have snowed on 2/17/82 it did at bwi rain/zr changed that was a great winter but w/o the fanfare plane crash storm gets all the talk, but there were plenty of other light/mod events and it was cold too LOL The mods deleted my post but these replies were pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I can only list dates if I have a spreadsheet with me. My snow memory is pretty poor. Names are fine after the fact tho not a huge fan of the cutesy ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 temps may be our issue this run, assuming it fires up after 102 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks like an overrunning deal on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks like an overrunning deal on this run. that's what I fear, b/c we usually do not do well w/those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 nah, doesn't look like I thought it might, but the ducks remain on the pond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 that's what I fear, b/c we usually do not do well w/those I think we used to do well with those. I remember years ago posting on the forums asking for a simple overrunning event. That was back before they outlawed high pressures over 1030mb in Quebec. Damn French. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 LOL The mods deleted my post but these replies were pretty good. they are in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 another light event I'll hold onto the threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 another light event I'll hold onto the threat There is clearly a signal for something, although it seemed to jump forward quite a bit in time from 18Z. Unless there are two events now as something else is brewing at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 cold comes after it, then a clipper on its way while the energy sits in the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I can only list dates if I have a spreadsheet with me. My snow memory is pretty poor. Names are fine after the fact tho not a huge fan of the cutesy ones. Move this to banter if needed bit I agree here. Specific dates don't file in memory with many folks (me included). I'm all for naming storms after the fact. I name stuff in retrospect all the time and I can kill it with recall. Throw out a specific date more than 3 years ago and I need google to recall. Pre-naming a bust is lame though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 DT's video about the storms including jan 2-4 http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=vCCzf9ArDOM&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DvCCzf9ArDOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 DT's video about the storms including jan 2-4 http://m.youtube.com...h?v=vCCzf9ArDOM That was a pretty good video.... Looks like we see the first real arctic push of the season... hopefully a solid piece of energy comes out of the southwest. At this point though the models are indicating nothing other than some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 this even is still a week away. im sure models will be all over the place till about 48 hrs away from event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 this even is still a week away. im sure models will be all over the place till about 48 hrs away from event I think that's how it pretty much is in all situations (save for a few very well modeled storms like in 2009-2010). Only a fool would think anything is locked in at this point. And even those fools are probably knowingly being weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I spent just a little bit of time looking at the panels today. Storm is there but the massive area of hp in canada just squashes it out to sea well south of us. IF the model is right (and we know it isn't) then this would be the largest and most stable cold airmass of the season. We've seen them on the models over and over the last couple weeks but they have never materialized. That fact alone should raise an eyebrow. We haven't had a single storm get squashed for weeks. Instead we are battling weakness in blocking and lp to the north dragging storms to close for comfort or to the west. I'm not saying that the storm *can't* get squashed because it can but given how things have unfolded the last couple weeks I wouldn't consider writing it off either. My wag is it comes north over time. If it get's to us then awesome. If it ends up a marginal rainer then I quit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 still suppressed....LC likes the phantom threat on 1/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 JMA gives us some hope for Jan 3-4. Shows a strong gulf low that heads up the coast. A bit too far east but does give DC 3-6 inches. Ocean City would get clobbered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 What does Joe Bastardi say? here is the 144 on earl barker. The 168 and 192 are on Accuweather Pro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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