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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

About time

SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

401 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

NYZ071-073-078-080-176>179-182200-

BRONX-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NASSAU-QUEENS-SUFFOLK-EXTREME SOUTHERN

WESTCHESTER-

401 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

.NOW...

AT 401 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN UPTON NY

INDICATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM KINGS POINT TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF ATLANTIC BEACH...

MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF...

WEST HEMPSTEAD...SEARINGTOWN...ROSLYN HEIGHTS AROUND 410 PM...

GLEN COVE...SEA CLIFF...WESTBURY AROUND 415 PM...

MILL NECK...LOCUST VALLEY...BAYVILLE AROUND 420 PM...

SYOSSET...SEAFORD...PLAINEDGE AROUND 425 PM...

GUSTY WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED WITH

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...SMALL HAIL IS

LIKELY.

$$

JMC

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CooL

CooL

Posted
Posted

You know even if that happen , it would mean nothing for us in term of snow right , it would be a welcome sight for those in New England .

Been hearing new england will cash in on this pattern since late november. No one has gotten snow dude. The pattern has been trash. I actually think most of us in here have more snow on the season than new england

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Been hearing new england will cash in on this pattern since late november. No one has gotten snow dude. The pattern has been trash. I actually think most of us in here have more snow on the season than new england

. Point was whn a coastal pops over nyc and heads NE. It favors new england. His point suggested that somehow a low over nyc was meaningful for us. U dont have to tell me the patterns bad. I b livin it

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Storm At Sea

Storm At Sea

Posted
Posted

00Z GFS is completely different aloft. H5 low does not close off, remains open, and then goes negatively tilted by 180 HR or so. Huge improvement for EC.

0Z GFS OP has a CAD signature - obviously its still wrong trying to cut the LP into the block BUT it is also further east trying to cut so might be beginning to trend towards the ensembles which should be interesting later

http://raleighwx.ame...s2mtemps156.gif

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NaoPos

NaoPos

Posted
Posted
00Z GFS is completely different aloft. H5 low does not close off, remains open, and then goes negatively tilted by 180 HR or so. Huge improvement for EC.

Made this up. Here's the h5 flow 06z Xmas morning (150hrs roughly)

0z gfs on the left, 18z on the right.

The differences speak for themselves:

se4y4ysu.jpg

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Recap of the overnight - early A.M models - plain and simple - most shifted east more towards their ensembles (gfs -euro ) and this is still a work in progress as no one knows exactly how far east and south they will finally shift with the storm - all depends on the strength and location of the 50/50 low and high pressure building south and east out of Canada - 6z GFS even gives us some precip as early as christmas day

http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kewr

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

VERY VERY similar - plus thats a classic track with a blocking pattern similar to the one that is developing............ thats at least a SECS and maybe a MECS depending on intensity.........

Well I wouldn't say MECS because on both of those models, it was a transfer. I am liking the fact that the models are trending eastward. The models are probably finally catching on to the blocking.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Well I wouldn't say MECS because on both of those models, it was a transfer. I am liking the fact that the models are trending eastward. The models are probably finally catching on to the blocking.

That little funky lead system now showing on the GFS for Christmas that produces some light showers here/snow in upstate NY is likely aiding in the 2nd major storm being suppressed.

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

That little funky lead system now showing on the GFS for Christmas that produces some light showers here/snow in upstate NY is likely aiding in the 2nd major storm being suppressed.

GGEM picked up on this on it's 0z run but is much further south and gives DC and up to Southern Jersey a Christmas snow event. The ECMWF was also pretty close to doing the same thing. It had the system as far south as the GGEM, but a bit weaker.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

GGEM picked up on this on it's 0z run but is much further south and gives DC and up to Southern Jersey a Christmas snow event. The ECMWF was also pretty close to doing the same thing. It had the system as far south as the GGEM, but a bit weaker.

The Ukie also shows this wave.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=144

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