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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

Posted
Posted

Henry thinks the storm is going to cut into the lakes and forgetabout the coastal - so its Henry Vs. DT and JB - who do you think is going to be correct ?

http://www.accuweath...e-storm/2879425

lol they are talking about different storms, everyone knows the storm for Thursday / Friday is a cutter. JB / DT is talking DEC 27 to DEC 29

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

lol they are talking about different storms, everyone knows the storm for Thursday / Friday is a cutter. JB / DT is talking DEC 27 to DEC 29

Longer range....

There is a lot of talk out of a coastal storm around Dec. 26. The operational models have the storm in the middle of the country and eventually takes the storm into the eastern Great Lakes. The Canadian takes the storm almost due ENE and tracks the storm across the Appalachians to the mid-Atlantic coast. However, given the neutral NAO predicted values, I would not get too excited about any coastal storms around the holidays. I like what the GFS and ECMWF both have in regards to the storm track and intensity.

thats what he was refering to

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
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^^ Yea I know that but what happen to all the cold air that was coming down. Also, is the low really going to go through the block up nort? I think it would have to transfer.

"IF" , theres any transfer its is off Long Island , thats way too late for us .

You wana see a transfer down in Hatteras or the Delmarva and thats not modeled anywhere .

This goes to the lakes runs into the block but the block is in Central Canada and not south of the Great Lakes ,

so the Low comes just far enough north , so its too late for us ,so as modeled it makes sense .

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earthlight

earthlight

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^^ Yea I know that but what happen to all the cold air that was coming down. Also, is the low really going to go through the block up nort? I think it would have to transfer.

What block do you see on that map? There is a confluent flow over the NE but the ULL is too slow and will just wait for it to leave. The block on the GFS is as bootleg as it comes, above normal height anoms on the ensembles can fool you...bright red colors are different than an actual blocking ridge.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

seemstobe 2 different camps on next weeks storm - going to be interesting who gives in first kinda like the fiscal cliff talks going on down in DC -- right now good arguments can be made for both scenario's but the inland track and blocking giving way - I favor right now .............another option is the storm cuts BUT cold enough air gets trapped in lower levels creating an icing event east of the APPS.....

12Z GFS ensemble totally different then OP and much further south and east

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12204.gif

East Coast Snowstorm

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12216.gif

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

What I can say with certainty at this point, which may offer some comfort, albeit slight, is that the current solutions on modelling are likely to be wrong. The statistical probability of any model nailing a D7-9 event is extremely low.

What we DON'T want to happen:

1)The 50/50 low to move NE thus lessening the confluence over SE Canada

2) The SW short wave to cut-off and remain cut-off for a very long time. The longer that stays cut-off, the more time our confluence has to move out of the picture, thereby permitting the SE ridge to have free reign on the Eastern US, building heights ahead of the storm, you can take it from there

Points 1 and 2 are related, because the longer the SW short wave remains cut-off, the more likely the 50/50 low (which is this Friday's bombing) will propagate NE, too far away to give us support.

Basically, we've got to hope that modelling will trend in the direction of ejecting that SW short wave faster, and NOT stronger / more amplified with the wave. If the latter occurs, it's probable we're not getting snow.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
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What block do you see on that map? There is a confluent flow over the NE but the ULL is too slow and will just wait for it to leave. The block on the GFS is as bootleg as it comes, above normal height anoms on the ensembles can fool you...bright red colors are different than an actual blocking ridge.

It's not just bootleg stuff. The GFS brings a huge lobe of the Asian PV down over Greenland and Davis Strait to crush the Rex block, before it comes much stronger:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTNH180.gif

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

It's not just bootleg stuff. The GFS brings a huge lobe of the Asian PV down over Greenland and Davis Strait to crush the Rex block, before it comes much stronger:

http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNH180.gif

Im sorry i am not seeing what you are . Are you saying that brutal air is anywhere on our playing field ?

There are 2 centers - over the top on the other side of the pole and the other into western alaska .

That look oozes confluence , just look at the height lines . Thats not a block I wouldnt run into .

This pattern is lacking any sort of Ridging in the Caspian amongst other variables and to be honest thats an average winter temp gradient , not a block worthy of thinking the operationals are out to lunch

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Im sorry i am not seeing what you are . Are you saying that brutal air is anywhere on our playing field ?

There are 2 centers - over the top on the other side of the pole and the other into western alaska .

That look oozes confluence , just look at the height lines . Thats not a block I wouldnt run into .

This pattern is lacking any sort of Ridging in the Caspian amongst other variables and to be honest thats an average winter temp gradient , not a block worthy of thinking the operationals are out to lunch

12Z GFS ensemble is completely different then the OP - way east

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12216.gif

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

12z Euro is keying on another wave just like the Nogaps also is. GFS is different than the Euro in that aspect. Euro came in much weaker and east but not enough for our area. There looks to be cold air damming in the east on this run. Euro shows an icestorm just north of NYC. Freezing line looks to be north of the City.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
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12z Euro is keying on another wave just like the Nogaps also is. GFS is different than the Euro in that aspect. Euro came in much weaker and east but not enough for our area. There looks to be cold air damming in the east on this run. Euro shows an icestorm just north of NYC. Freezing line looks to be north of the City.

There are major differences between the 00z and the 12z Euro. I don't understand the comparison the the NOAGPS either. On the Euro, the high pressure is much more well established over SE Canada at hr 168 with the freezing line well SW of this area on a line from about Erie, PA southeast towards Cape May, NJ. By hr 192 the Euro pops a secondar over VA but it's too late and too far west for our area. Meanwhile by hr 168 on the NOAGPS, the freezing line is already NE or the NYC area along with high pressure displaced all the way NW towards Hudson Bay. The 12z GGEM pops a secondary low over the Pocons for this weekends storm. It's a warm solution but brings us a brief period of very heavy rains. However in doing so, it pushes the freezing line south all the way into South Carolina. For the post Christmas storm it then offers up a very odd solution. The primary swings through the TN Valley and never cuts off or closes off like most of the other guidance. Instead, it spawns a secondary low about 100 miles off the VA capes on the 26th which then redevelops over DC and moves directly overhead. Almost right up I-95. This solution would be mostly a frozen event for most of PA and Upstate NY as the low eventually phases with the Polar Vortex itself putting us in a deep freeze as the -10 line is well offshore at hour 240.

f240.gif

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Weathergun

Weathergun

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Posted

Im sorry i am not seeing what you are . Are you saying that brutal air is anywhere on our playing field ?

There are 2 centers - over the top on the other side of the pole and the other into western alaska .

That look oozes confluence , just look at the height lines . Thats not a block I wouldnt run into .

This pattern is lacking any sort of Ridging in the Caspian amongst other variables and to be honest thats an average winter temp gradient , not a block worthy of thinking the operationals are out to lunch

The Asian PV lobe coming down, breaks up the Rex block. The 50/50 low and confluence zone weakens or is displaced further east, with it. This gives room for the storm to cut into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. The Euro is doing this somewhat as well.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

The Asian PV lobe coming down, breaks up the Rex block. The 50/50 low and confluence zone weakens or is displaced further east, with it. This gives room for the storm to cut into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. The Euro is doing this somewhat as well.

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