Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[MJO812]

Huh ?

It is further east than the previous runs. Still way out there though.

[PB GFI]

The center is up over Wisc

[PB GFI]

It is further east than the previous runs. Still way out there though.

I love your enthusiam , but come on be fair , when you say stuff like its futher east . its not my man .

yes its far out and that may be your only saving grace

[MJO812]

I love your enthusiam , but come on be fair , when you say stuff like its futher east . its not my man .

yes its far out and that may be your only saving grace

Maybe I need glasses. Anyway, a big signal for a storm . The track is up in the air. Should be fun tracking it.

[CooL]

The MW ridge connects with the block and forces a raging lakes cutter. And then it actually changes the pattern.

Probably overdone though

[PB GFI]

0z Euro and 12z GFS match up really well after Day 10 , both show the main PV being routed out of Alaska and into Central Canada

So any forcing south brings the core of the cold right thru the Lakes , AND NOT down the west coast so a much better better look high height wise nosing into Alaska .

Wana see if the ensembles start to see these changes

[MJO812]

GGEM is different than the GFS. It looks like it has more blocking for the storm.

[MJO812]

12z GEFS has a coastal for the boxing day storm.

[easternsnowman]

The good forecasters are bullish on a pattern change.

[Snowshack]

It is in the main forum. DT is really bullish on an east coast winter storm on the 26th.

I sure didnt come away with the same feeling after watching his video...hes not changing his forecast as of now but he mentioned about 20 times that it hinges on strength/position and actual existence of the block, which is far from certain.

[Snowshack]

12z GEFS has a coastal for the boxing day storm.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA252.gif

Has the primary over the lakes transferring to a coastal...

[SnoSki14]

Well at the very least, it definitely looks like it could be a lot colder than we've seen (torch, powerful cutter like shown would further tap into the cold reservoir up north and really bring the cold air down. The problem is that it's always 10 days away but those highs up north are getting stronger and hopefully the pacific gets better.

[PB GFI]

[MJO812]

Que?

[RowanBrandon]

He's sad that he can't proclaim his doom and gloom over the EURO run.

[MJO812]

He's sad that he can't proclaim his doom and gloom over the EURO run.

I heard it wasn't bad. Cold run .

[Snow_Miser]

This has to be the funniest and best ECMWF image I have ever seen.

[NorEaster27]

The pattern is still locked in with no real changes for the east going forward.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z Euro would likely bring flooding rains

[CooL]

The pattern is still locked in with no real changes for the east going forward.

Climo? Locked in like Sandy was supposed to go ots?

i will never let this go

[NorEaster27]

Climo? Locked in like Sandy was supposed to go ots?

i will never let this go

i never said it was going OTS but nice try.

[RowanBrandon]

No real changes? Going from temps around 50 down into the 30's for highs is no real change?

[famartin]

once again the 12Z GFS loses the blocking and the storm after xmas is a lake cutter

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12240.gif

GFS is further east with the 26th storm.

[NorEaster27]

No real changes? Going from temps around 50 down into the 30's for highs is no real change?

dude its progressive, a few days of down to normal temps isnt a big deal. The overall pattern remains the same, strong -PNA lackluster blocking and low heights over AK.

[jjvesnow]

This has to be the funniest and best ECMWF image I have ever seen.

Obviously this will change, BUT with a 1040+ high just north of Quebec anything is possible.

[CooL]

i never said it was going OTS but nice try.

LOL. You posted the GFS multiple times when it recurved Sandy ots and said that it was right and supported by climo

Mega, mega fail for you. One of many.

[NorEaster27]

LOL. You posted the GFS multiple times when it recurved Sandy ots and said that it was right and supported by climo

Mega, mega fail for you. One of many.

it was supported by climo, however it was a once in 100 year storm.

[CooL]

it was supported by climo, however it was a once in 100 year storm.

I agree. But imo, you come on board way too late to some events.

[ag3]

dude its progressive, a few days of down to normal temps isnt a big deal. The overall pattern remains the same, strong -PNA lackluster blocking and low heights over AK.

Euro does not have normal temps.

Well below normal hours 150-240.

[Sundog]

dude its progressive, a few days of down to normal temps isnt a big deal. The overall pattern remains the same, strong -PNA lackluster blocking and low heights over AK.

That cutoff in the central plains has a chance to slide due east as opposed to gaining latitude. The highs are blocked in in southeastern Canada and they are 1040+mb at that.

Of course this will probably be completely gone in 12 hours but my point still stands.