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December Mid-Long Range Discussion


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why doesnt someone on this site produce a video like DT does?? His video was very informative, and he explained everything, even for the novice like me. Your all such good mets, produce a video and explain what is going on so we can understand,. Just my opinion,

Are you going to pay us? If not what is the motivation for us putting in so much time?

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Are you going to pay us? If not what is the motivation for us putting in so much time?

How much does it cost??Your motivation is your business, I,m just suggesting. I do things for free for things I believe in. If you dont want to , thats fine with me.. You do a radio show, why not a video?? /Mr Usedtobe I,m not trying to be nasty, just suggesting something that might be of value. If its not in the cards, so be it. Cant a video camera be used and upload to the net??

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How much does it cost??Your motivation is your business, I,m just suggesting. I do things for free for things I believe in. If you dont want to , thats fine with me.. You do a radio show, why not a video?? /Mr Usedtobe I,m not trying to be nasty, just suggesting something that might be of value. If its not in the cards, so be it. Cant a video camera be used and upload to the net??

S,

I don't think wes thinks you were being nasty. But it takes time and effort to produce a video. It's much easier for them to type out thoughts here.

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How much does it cost??Your motivation is your business, I,m just suggesting. I do things for free for things I believe in. If you dont want to , thats fine with me.. You do a radio show, why not a video?? /Mr Usedtobe I,m not trying to be nasty, just suggesting something that might be of value. If its not in the cards, so be it. Cant a video camera be used and upload to the net??

lol

Wes is chill, read his post again with the right perception.

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The ONLY thing I can take away from the gfs as a positive is the storm that goes west of us day 7-8. We want that thing as strong as possible and to shake things up around GL. Even if it did it would be temporary though. The pac seems to have its heart set on stealing December Winter.

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How much does it cost??Your motivation is your business, I,m just suggesting. I do things for free for things I believe in. If you dont want to , thats fine with me.. You do a radio show, why not a video?? /Mr Usedtobe I,m not trying to be nasty, just suggesting something that might be of value. If its not in the cards, so be it. Cant a video camera be used and upload to the net??

I didn't think you were trying to be nasty but making a video would take more time than I'd be willing to put into it, at least to do a good job. It's much easier posting here but even the articles I write for CWG usually take a couple of hours and if there is research involved like the one on the big snow pattern years versus the crummy ones, an article might take several hours to collate the data.

Others who are pros might not have an inclination to produce a video as it could be have a conflict of interest with their employees or thy may not want to spend a big chunk of their off hours producing a video for people here. It is easier to post thought quickly in several posts than one long article or video. Anyway, those are my thoughts on doing a video.

DT works for himself and is trying to build his client list so he's a different story than most of us. I post here for fun and already spend more time here than I should.

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How much does it cost??Your motivation is your business, I,m just suggesting. I do things for free for things I believe in. If you dont want to , thats fine with me.. You do a radio show, why not a video?? /Mr Usedtobe I,m not trying to be nasty, just suggesting something that might be of value. If its not in the cards, so be it. Cant a video camera be used and upload to the net??

learn to read...

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Wes, you don't need to explain your position on this. 99.9% of us totally understand. The last thing we want here is an accuwx environment with subscription base. And that's the only way there would be pretty videos put out on a daily basis. What is contributed here by the mets is exponentially far and beyond anything we could ever ask for in a free and open forum. It's why I gladly donate every year. This is the greatest place on the net for a weather enthusiast and we totally owe it to folks like yourself.

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S,

I don't think wes thinks you were being nasty. But it takes time and effort to produce a video. It's much easier for them to type out thoughts here.

I'm sure he has somehow convinced himself that if Wes produces a video he will somehow change his forecast to cold and snow like DT.. Or maybe reading is too difficult.

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There wasn't anything wrong with the video suggestion. I've thought the same thing myself. I think it was just a "how can we make this sight the best it can be" kind of suggestion. I think he was just throwing it out there. Its rather unfortunate some of the responses.

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There wasn't anything wrong with the video suggestion. I've thought the same thing myself. I think it was just a "how can we make this sight the best it can be" kind of suggestion. I think he was just throwing it out there. Its rather unfortunate some of the responses.

Nobody has made an ugly response. Not one person.

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I didnt say ugly just unfortunate and unnecessary.

They were simply explaining why it's not logical. Even just throwing together a video takes substantially more time than typing out thoughts or a radio show. You have to edit, get all of your graphics etc.

People are really sensitive on here sometimes - occasionally the posts do get rude, but there was none of that here. It's not "unfortunate and unnecessary" when somebody explains/responds to a question that was put out there. Should they have just not responded at all?

Even the few amateur wx videos I've done for my Facebook friends have taken a longgg time to produce. Usually, by the time I'm about to post it, something has changed to warrant an update. Not as much a problem with longer range stuff, but I'm sure Wes and the others would rather use their spare time to hang around with their families or get some work done. (or maybe fish ;) )

Just something to think about. No rudeness intended!!!

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They were simply explaining why it's not logical. Even just throwing together a video takes substantially more time than typing out thoughts or a radio show. You have to edit, get all of your graphics etc.

People are really sensitive on here sometimes - occasionally the posts do get rude, but there was none of that here. It's not "unfortunate and unnecessary" when somebody explains/responds to a question that was put out there. Should they have just not responded at all?

Even the few amateur wx videos I've done for my Facebook friends have taken a longgg time to produce. Usually, by the time I'm about to post it, something has changed to warrant an update. Not as much a problem with longer range stuff, but I'm sure Wes and the others would rather use their spare time to hang around with their families or get some work done. (or maybe fish ;) )

Just something to think about. No rudeness intended!!!

Good post Kenny. Videos are tough and time consuming. You can't just put one together in 15 minutes and post it. I've spent a lot of time on my research posts. Even just compiling data, maps, and graphics take a but of time and then properly putting it in a post takes a while too. I couldn't imagine attempting to do it video style.

I think the responses were totally appropriate because the request was unreasonable. I'm pretty sure the op has an incorrect vision of how difficult doing videos are. If they took 15 minutes to put together then they would be all over amwx. Posting maps, data, graphs, and explanations does an outstanding job at illustrating concepts and forecasts as it is.

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the 384 hr GFS looks good...

The GEFS ens mean also looks somewhat better though not quite as good as the GFS. The former hower look like it is trying to get the Atlantic in better shape with a negative anomaly just east of nova scotia. It still has the main positive in the atlantic a little east of optimal but with the negative in place that could keep pulling the positive wwd. The Pacific side still looks pretty bad with the negative pna look. Still get the atlantic in shape and we end up with one of Don Sutherland bottom two possible latter half of dec scenarios. I'd lean towards the warmer one but that still would not be warmer than normal and might even be cooler. However, the gefs ens mean at 384 hrs still looks warm to me for us but not so for to our north but its 384 hrs so it will probably be different tomorrow.

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Let it begin. Overnight ensemble runs looked the best I've seen in awhile in the long range. But, they've been very inconsistent lately.

What a difference a day makes in Model land. It's encouraging that it's day eight and not day 14.

These are two quotes from 3 days ago. Keep in mind the first is a met.

I see no reason to think the long range is any more set in stone than it was when the long range looked great, just 3 days ago.

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Good post Kenny. Videos are tough and time consuming. You can't just put one together in 15 minutes and post it. I've spent a lot of time on my research posts. Even just compiling data, maps, and graphics take a but of time and then properly putting it in a post takes a while too. I couldn't imagine attempting to do it video style.

I think the responses were totally appropriate because the request was unreasonable. I'm pretty sure the op has an incorrect vision of how difficult doing videos are. If they took 15 minutes to put together then they would be all over amwx. Posting maps, data, graphs, and explanations does an outstanding job at illustrating concepts and forecasts as it is.

Thanks. I received a PM as well and I think one of the main issues is that tone is not portrayed well online. I think certain people got their feelings hurt a bit when that was not Wes' (or anybody else's) intention.

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These are two quotes from 3 days ago. Keep in mind the first is a met.

I see no reason to think the long range is any more set in stone than it was when the long range looked great, just 3 days ago.

The problem is that it is becoming more set in stone. Those runs that gave us some optimism were few and far between with nothing but crappy ones in, around, and between. Most importantly the last 4-6 runs have showed the same thing and the trend has been in the bad direction.

The pac setup is becoming stable and the models have locked into it. At least over the next 8 days or so. Terrible ridge placement out west and an ineffective nao position. Until those features change and hold on the models then it's best to concede right now.

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The problem is that it is becoming more set in stone. Those runs that gave us some optimism were few and far between with nothing but crappy ones in, around, and between. Most importantly the last 4-6 runs have showed the same thing and the trend has been in the bad direction.

The pac setup is becoming stable and the models have locked into it. At least over the next 8 days or so. Terrible ridge placement out west and an ineffective nao position. Until those features change and hold on the models then it's best to concede right now.

I know what you are saying. Once an unfavorable setup appears it's as if 1)the models nail it, and 2)the pattern is rock solid stable. When a favorable setup appears its always wrong (seemingly), and if we ever get in a favorable pattern, it always seems fleeting and/or hanging on by a thread.

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