chrisNJ Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If it snows, I'd imagine the roads would be wet only anyway. My concern is any winds and gusts which could topple trees already compromised. I've seen several large branches and trees leaning on lines in the area. All we need at this point is more power outages after power has just been restored. All the people at my work rely on me for predictions...not sure what to say about this one...looks like sharp cutoff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 All the people at my work rely on me for predictions...not sure what to say about this one...looks like sharp cutoff.. At RDG, I would tell them, "We'll most likely see light accumulating snow, but it's not set in stone. We could see up to 6-8" or as little as nothing. The best bet is somewhere around 2-3 inches." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 lol. There are no safe bets with this storm. I'm with you on that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I too could see the QPF jackpot near the PHL area for reasons Heizenberg stated. This is a good starting point for the deformation axis..probably extend that towards DC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 At RDG, I would tell them, "We'll most likely see light accumulating snow, but it's not set in stone. We could see up to 6-8" or as little as nothing. The best bet is somewhere around 2-3 inches." Love it!! 0-8 inches possible...We I'm hoping for 8...thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Delaware special on clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Love it!! 0-8 inches possible...We I'm hoping for 8...thanks! Variance is a b*tch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If it snows, I'd imagine the roads would be wet only anyway. Under the deformation band the roads will, at least, get slushy. Quite possibly they will get snow covered for a time. It could really crank which will negate the warm road temps for a little while. However, still a great deal of uncertainty where the deform band will end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 wow well if it's sleet it will take a longer time to melt when it hits surface compared to snow this time of year so more white on ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 4-6 LV 6+ Philly S&E Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just gotta see how models trend. So far the GFS came SW, and the early Canadian looks a hair SW at hr 60 as compared to hour 72 from 00z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Those two maps are in total disagreement...funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Those two maps are in total disagreement...funny The first is one version of one model untouched by human hands. The other is the accumulation of model data from various sources which are then fed through a meat grinder by humans to produce the second map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Those two maps are in total disagreement...funny Two major differences - they're made about 8 hours apart and one is made by a human and the other by one model. Not too strange. Just points out the SW trend in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 still?? Wouldn't have believed it. i'm with ya, but its true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS has been showing the sharp precip cutoff to the west in eastern PA. (Side-note: Joe Snedeker on WNEP in NEPA showed the 00Z GFS on the news this morning lol. love when he does that so i dont have to look it up myself.) Euro has been more bullish on pushing precip further west i guess. HPC looks like they are leaning toward a compromise, if not more toward the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks for the clarification...learning so much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS has been showing the sharp precip cutoff to the west in eastern PA. (Side-note: Joe Snedeker on WNEP in NEPA showed the 00Z GFS on the news this morning lol. love when he does that so i dont have to look it up myself.) Euro has been more bullish on pushing precip further west i guess. HPC looks like they are leaning toward a compromise, if not more toward the Euro. Yeah, HPC would imply major Euro bias. Although, the GFS and even the NAM 12Z both have shifted things inland somewhat compared to 12 hours ago. Should be interesting to see if the 12z Euro holds ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hard to read on the 12 GGEM, but looks like decent precip doesn't make it too far past I-95 for most of the event. Low stalls east of the Delmarva and fills before moseying ENE. Probably still bad for the NJ coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah, HPC would imply major Euro bias Who was on the desk this morning? Some are more euro huggers than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 All the people at my work rely on me for predictions...not sure what to say about this one...looks like sharp cutoff.. No worries...when things go wrong you just say "gee, guess you should have asked a meteorologist instead of a (insert occupation here) with a storm obsession. Your bad" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hard to read on the 12 GGEM, but looks like decent precip doesn't make it too far past I-95 for most of the event. Low stalls east of the Delmarva and fills before moseying ENE. Probably still bad for the NJ coastline. Yeah it keeps the precip closer to the coast. Another thing we may have to watch is that compact vortmax. It may restrict how expansive the QPF shield gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS hasn't shifted much compared to the 00z run but is a little colder in low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think if you took an average of all the models Philly would work out to be in the deform zone, EURO should be interesting. Interesting how GFS/GGEM show it over Delaware. I would HATE to be a tv met. for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah it keeps the precip closer to the coast. Another thing we may have to watch is that compact vortmax. It may restrict how expansive the QPF shield gets. The GGEM closes off the ULL pretty fast & south imo which doesn't allow the advancement of the precip. This is going to be all about timing as usual lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12z GFS forecast for coastal winds is really bad for those areas that don't need wind. 65 knot winds at 950mb along the coast up through LI as it slows markedly alongside DE/NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think if you took an average of all the models Philly would work out to be in the deform zone, EURO should be interesting. Interesting how GFS/GGEM show it over Delaware. I would HATE to be a tv met. for this storm. If you are a good on-air met, storms like this are where you can cash in on experience and show the power of your skills to the audience. That brings in good ratings and makes your boss happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think if you took an average of all the models Philly would work out to be in the deform zone, EURO should be interesting. Interesting how GFS/GGEM show it over Delaware. I would HATE to be a tv met. for this storm. True...and Philly area is a good a guess as any...but in these setups where you have to be under the deform zone where it is modeled all over the place seems like it rarely just sets up in the middle of all the solutions...more often its one, or the other....or the other....or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Good point Eskimo, though it could work both ways too. I think the news will be hush hush with any snow threat until right before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Who was on the desk this morning? Some are more euro huggers than others. "PETERSEN" At this point, I trust pretty much nothing outside of the EURO. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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