andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Time to start number 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Radar shows largely anafrontal precipitation especially through the upper midwest, with a wide separation between the leading edge of cold air and the weak convection. Here in Texas dropped 14 degrees in one hour with the middle of the day passage, and currently further north it's 25 degrees in places. Several inches of snow in the front range of Colorado last night from the same air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 i don't see any quick strengthening occuring with sandy's displaced surface and flight level centers as reported in the latest recon reports. yes they found 963 mb. This is pretty lop sided , shear is heavy , and it has displaced centers, even if the centers were to stack up, with the high shear, i don't see much strengthening at all occuring in the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 i don't see any quick strengthening occuring with sandy's displaced surface and flight level centers as reported in the latest recon reports. yes they found 963 mb. This is pretty lop sided , shear is heavy , and it has displaced centers, even if the centers were to stack up, with the high shear, i don't see much strengthening at all occuring in the next 36 hours. Check csnavy's post on one of the threads (getting lost between all of them), he explains what could happen over that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Through 54 hours the GFS has taken a jog to the north and east from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 gfs is east at hr60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Not as deep with the trough either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS is definitely east so far... at hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hmm .... How Far East ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Through 72 looks slightly east and about the same speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS is strenthening the storm nicely thru 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Weaker with the ridging east than 18z but stronger than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS is definitely east so far... at hour 66 i wonder if the allignment of the block and the ULLtrough still have this thing left hooking at like 37-38N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I asked this before and didn't see a reply, although does anyone know what the tornado potential from Sandy is? I've heard various sources talk about tornadoes but so far no very reliable source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Anyone think the solutions that start out weaker may actually end up worse? If the strength peaks too early it will be weakening by landfall.. but if it peaks at 1950 at landfall or possibly lower that would be worst case scenario I think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 I asked this before and didn't see a reply, although does anyone know what the tornado potential from Sandy is? I've heard various sources talk about tornadoes but so far no very reliable source. Not nearly as much as there would be during the summer, there will be much less CAPE to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Anyone think the solutions that start out weaker may actually end up worse? If the strength peaks too early it will be weakening by landfall.. but if it peaks at 1950 at landfall or possibly lower that would be worst case scenario I think.. I don't know how much of a difference it makes to be honest. I think the fact the synoptic setup favors at least a steady state if not strengthening by landfall is more important. I did see the NHC actually weakened then strengthened the storm. Unusual but agrees with guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 at 78 hrs she is actually slightly NW of 18 z (84 hours) it's ez to see on the alan haufman site when you click on 850 temps/SLP/NA 3rd one down on quick plots! (there is a very cool feature displayed on each 6 hour plot that says "last cycle and 2 cycles ago, respectfully) so you can go then click back and see exactly how it shifted. very neat by hour 90 she's NE of 18z OP (ok i'm done with updates, don't worry) i'll leave to pro's but that "last cycle option makes it EZ to see exact difference) for those who weren't aware of feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Crazy to see the GFS hundreds of miles east of the Euro's position at the same latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 at 78 hrs she is actually slightly NW of 18 z (84 hours) it's ez to see on the alan haufman site when you click on 850 temps/SLP/NA 3rd one down on quick plots! Out to 90 on instantweathermaps and it is definitely slightly east of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 951 mb at 96... approx at 82 degrees W longitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Microbursts Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I love sitting on modellab.wsi.com and just pressing refresh, OVER and OVER again... waiting for more GFS data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like the op GFS will be a devastating hurricane hit for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 gfs north and east at 99 this run is going to give kevin wood for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, SNE looks to take a much harder hit from this run, 950.1 mb at 99 hrs and bombing quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Well east of 18z run at hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Out to 102 and still hasn't hit land...seems a little slower this run. But yeah this run looks like a hit for SNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 If you loop the 500mb maps you can see there is nowhere near a phase. The Euro and GFS are worlds apart. For now. Uh, no. It is moving NW by 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hmm...interesting to see what the euro does.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 HUGE storm for us in SNE... 947 MB at 108... very close to Block Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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