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Long Term Disco

IWXwx

By IWXwx,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

True. But I think after the 15th we actually have a legit chance to see something interesting given the way the pattern is projected to develop.

That was my initial thinking as well. But it'll all be predicated on a -NAO. Models/ensembles seem to be going with a -NAO in the medium range, but they were also in late November to no avail. So we'll see. I'm 60% confident on a snowier setup towards Christmas.

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toronto blizzard

toronto blizzard

Posted
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That was my initial thinking as well. But it'll all be predicated on a -NAO. Models/ensembles seem to be going with a -NAO in the medium range, but they were also in late November to no avail. So we'll see. I'm 60% confident on a snowier setup towards Christmas.

From what the other mets on the NE forum are saying that is more different than late November is that the blocking already looks to be developing by early next week. The question is will the blocking retrograde and become west-based? Historically that isn't a good pattern for us ala 09-10 but because we have a -PNA that may allow miller B storms to form. Mike do you know if the 99 blizzard happened with a west based -NAO?

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
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Loving the death of the GOA trough, which is something that most of the models have been hinting at in the extended. However, the spatial setup kind of concerns me. The E PAC ridge looks too far west for those of us in the eastern part of the subforum. It's like a pseudo +EPO, which is generally not a good teleconnector. The whole pattern is conducive for a SE ridge to keep popping up and allowing storms to amplify and go to the NW. We'll likely have to wait until -NAO establishes itself in full to act as a suppressant on the storm track.

Very well could be a historic pattern for ORD and MKE, like HM said. Unfortunately, the wealth may not be spread around.

where'd he say that?

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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Even though next week's storm isn't gonna pan out as hoped, things aren't as dire looking in the long range as they were a few weeks ago... Mid December has been the time to look forward to for a while.

Agree 100%. Ive heard a lot of comments how that lr gfs always looks good but thags not really true. For instance the early dec torch was on models for a long time. Now whike the individual model runs will change ridiculously every run, there is no question the pattern going forward is more favorable for both cold and storminess. Now to see what pans out....

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toronto blizzard

toronto blizzard

Posted
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Agree 100%. Ive heard a lot of comments how that lr gfs always looks good but thags not really true. For instance the early dec torch was on models for a long time. Now whike the individual model runs will change ridiculously every run, there is no question the pattern going forward is more favorable for both cold and storminess. Now to see what pans out....

Couldn't have said it better myself snowfreak! The computer models have been very consistent in showing a colder and whiter pattern down the road. Let's just hope that it verifies!

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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Couldn't have said it better myself snowfreak! The computer models have been very consistent in showing a colder and whiter pattern down the road. Let's just hope that it verifies!

This must, must, MUST be taken with a grain of salt...but for a few days now, several GFS ensembles have showed a major, if not massive, winter storm in the Dec 17-20 timeframe. I mean, we are talking 10+ days out here, and we all know how often storms appear and disappear in a lot shorter timespan than 10+ days, but its something to keep in the back of your mind. Bottom line...I think the quiet pattern of Nov is a memory...what produces and who for...that is still way up in the air.

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InstantWeatherMaps

InstantWeatherMaps

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This must, must, MUST be taken with a grain of salt...but for a few days now, several GFS ensembles have showed a major, if not massive, winter storm in the Dec 17-20 timeframe. I mean, we are talking 10+ days out here, and we all know how often storms appear and disappear in a lot shorter timespan than 10+ days, but its something to keep in the back of your mind. Bottom line...I think the quiet pattern of Nov is a memory...what produces and who for...that is still way up in the air.

That system was mentioned in my winter forecast; it is probably the signature system of the LRC this winter. It is safe to say that the chances of it phasing with a tropical system again are near zero however. In my opinion, it is the big pattern changer that will cause the effects of the recent stratospheric disturbance to finally be felt in the central and eastern United States, and especially in the OV.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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Storms and rumors of storms as they say...that looks to be the pattern for the 2nd half of December. Busts and all, it beats the hell out of the quiet November type of pattern. Most of us should get snow at some point, some could really cash in. After our awesome winter of 2010-11, I made a "bold" prediction. We just finished an epic stretch of snowfall at DTW, in fact the 4 consecutive winters 2007-08 thru 2010-11 were by far the snowiest 4-yr period Detroit had ever seen on record. All of that with a plethora of 6-10" storms, none bigger (officially) than 10.3". I said that within 3 years DTW would see a major snowstorm (14"+) and it would come in a winter without the gawdy 65"+ totals that were strangely becoming commonplace. Last year obviously was a no, so I have 2 years left to make it happen :lol:.

Light hearted banter aside, heres ORH's take on the euro ensembles

Well if the pattern shakes out like the ensembles want it to...then we'd probably share a lot of the same storms. A Great Lakes to New England pattern is exactly what is favored. It does not look like a favorable pattern for Nor' Easters unless it redeveloped pretty late which is always possible, but not probable.

OH Valley runners would want to be the main storm track. But we are still a ways out and obviously the usual caveats are in place. Don't expect epic snow at this range....but make a note that the 12/16-12/25 period could be pretty interesting and hope it stays that way.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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At this point a inch in this region would be epic. Been a long time waiting, even longer waiting not to be dry slotted or in the warm sector.

Lol I wouldnt call an inch epic. The region had a bad winter past year and we were not rewarded with a fast start to this season. Thats more or less it. The last 1"+ snow was feb 24th. Last winter there simply WERE no storms to be dryslotted or warmsectored :lol:. Hell many of ouf nickel and dime snows overperformed, just never had a nice storm to deal with. I lllllong for the days when there were worries about a dryslot a few times a week as we piled our way to a 70" winter!

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

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Lol I wouldnt call an inch epic. The region had a bad winter past year and we were not rewarded with a fast start to this season. Thats more or less it. The last 1"+ snow was feb 24th. Last winter there simply WERE no storms to be dryslotted or warmsectored :lol:. Hell many of ouf nickel and dime snows overperformed, just never had a nice storm to deal with. I lllllong for the days when there were worries about a dryslot a few times a week as we piled our way to a 70" winter!

I can't believe it is the 7th of December and I am still awaiting the first inch of snow here in West Michigan!

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Lol I wouldnt call an inch epic. The region had a bad winter past year and we were not rewarded with a fast start to this season. Thats more or less it. The last 1"+ snow was feb 24th. Last winter there simply WERE no storms to be dryslotted or warmsectored :lol:. Hell many of ouf nickel and dime snows overperformed, just never had a nice storm to deal with. I lllllong for the days when there were worries about a dryslot a few times a week as we piled our way to a 70" winter!

In the snow lovers business...it seems to be a "what have you done for me lately?" attitude. I used to be like that...but as I got older and truly reflected back on the 1988-1992 period when I was a grade school snow weenie, I realized this is a long term business as a snow lover. You have to be able to deal with the bad with the good. It doesn't matter where you live. Climo is climo for a reason. There is nowhere on the face of the planet is "always above average" for snow. You get stinkers and you get good ones.

Sometimes it is relative. Boston and Detroit metro posters think 33" is a crappy winter while the mid-atlantic thinks it is a good winter. Someone from ORH thinks 55" is a crappy winter and someone from northern Vermont mountains thinks 85" sucks. Someone from Raleigh thinks 15" is awesome. But we all have expectations.

Bottom line is the Lakes to New England (and south to NYC/NJ) has been pretty lucky the past decade. Its been good times. The string of stinkers is coming. We all hope it isn't this year building on last year's horror show. But it will happen at some point. Thankfully this year isn't showing signs of that right now.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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In the snow lovers business...it seems to be a "what have you done for me lately?" attitude. I used to be like that...but as I got older and truly reflected back on the 1988-1992 period when I was a grade school snow weenie, I realized this is a long term business as a snow lover. You have to be able to deal with the bad with the good. It doesn't matter where you live. Climo is climo for a reason. There is nowhere on the face of the planet is "always above average" for snow. You get stinkers and you get good ones.

Sometimes it is relative. Boston and Detroit metro posters think 33" is a crappy winter while the mid-atlantic thinks it is a good winter. Someone from ORH thinks 55" is a crappy winter and someone from northern Vermont mountains thinks 85" sucks. Someone from Raleigh thinks 15" is awesome. But we all have expectations.

Bottom line is the Lakes to New England (and south to NYC/NJ) has been pretty lucky the past decade. Its been good times. The string of stinkers is coming. We all hope it isn't this year building on last year's horror show. But it will happen at some point. Thankfully this year isn't showing signs of that right now.

Bolded point #1: SO true. The problem is, some people here, whether they are being facetious or serious, are being downright unrealistic about snow, probably because of last year. This attitude acting like it just won't snow anymore is ridiculous. It is December 7th! Even AFTER YOU INCLUDE last years 26" at DTW, the last TEN YEARS RUNNING are averaging TEN INCHES above normal! But yet, because of no real snow past Feb 24th last year (just a few dustings), and just a few dustings so far this year, some honestly act like it is not going to snow. Every once in a while I see a post I want to bookmark to quote later, but I figure, whats the use? There are so many of them.

Bolded point #2: Thats what scares me....people DO NOT realize that the one crappy winter has FAR from equalled out all the good times. The law of averages says we have more coming. But, I personally can deal with it if it would just have more snowcover than last winter! But Im also glad as hell signs arent showing that now.

On another note, the good times spoiled people so rotten, I remember in 2010-11 whenever youd get one quiet week of just cold and snowcover, I heard many from my very area saying things like "I dont care for snowcover like Josh, I just want storms". Some even commented how the snowbanks get dirty and sometimes wiping the slate clean with fresh snow is best :lol:. NOW....after last year when we couldnt keep snowcover more than 3-5 days at a time, I hear comments "watch, the snowstorms will wait til the sun angle is bad and they will melt faster". Wait....NOW people are on the snowcover bandwagon that I got booted off of the 4 years prior to last year, when we all were getting way more snow than we should? :lol:

I personally like a back-loaded winter better, but for everyones sanity a weather board NEEDS a front-loaded one!

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