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September 17-19 2012 rain and severe weather potential


SNO

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Looks like we got .2 overnight.

Feels very tropical out there. Humid and breezy.

I just secured the items on our deck. 6/29 knocked over a ~150 lb grill. 9/8 tossed around a ~2 lb plastic swimming pool. I'm guessing today will be somewhere in between. My official forecast is a 60% chance of my cheap ~6 lb plastic chairs being moved at least a foot. Good luck to all of you in the path of this grave threat. Stay vigilant!

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I think this stuff is going surface based for NC. Some tops exceeding 30K in NC and shows sign of supercellular characteristics. This looks like the first of possibly 2 broken rounds ahead of the squall line that possibly develops 18-20z in western areas.

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I think this stuff is going surface based for NC. Some tops exceeding 30K in NC and shows sign of supercellular characteristics. This looks like the first of possibly 2 broken rounds ahead of the squall line that possibly develops 18-20z in western areas.

Are you saying maybe not surface based farther north? Thoughts for DC proper?

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Are you saying maybe not surface based farther north? Thoughts for DC proper?

I'm not saying anything about further north. I think you guys in DC look fine. The IAD sounding this morning is very telling. I'm just saying that this stuff in NC looks to go first.

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I'm not saying anything about further north. I think you guys in DC look fine. The IAD sounding this morning is very telling. I'm just saying that this stuff in NC looks to go first.

Thanks! Yeah I was surprised at the CAPE numbers shown in the IAD sounding. Been socked in here all morning - soupy airmass.

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It is almost like they are programmed to say that because of how often that is the case. Makes me wonder how much they actually analyze the weather...

Many EC mets gloss over tornado potential. Though in these situations it's usually a good get things move faster than modeled.

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Had a little burst of mod rain and man did it bring some winds down with it. I just checked thomas point light on the bay (just south of annapolis) and peak gust last hour was 35kts (40mph) with 31kts sustained (35mph).

I think it's pretty reasonable to expect 60mph gusts in many areas today. I'm glad it's a south wind too. All my big trees are to the N of my house so if any come down it will be my neighbor's problem.

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069

WWUS30 KWNS 181451

SAW2

SPC AWW 181451

WW 642 TORNADO DC MD NC VA WV CW 181455Z - 182300Z

AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..

35ESE AVC/SOUTH HILL VA/ - 40NNE BWI/BALTIMORE MD/

..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /61S RIC - 31ENE EMI/

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.

MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.

LAT...LON 36477908 39707808 39707469 36477584

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS

FOR WOU2.

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DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS

EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS A

VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. CURRENT VAD AND

MODEL FORECAST DATA INDICATE A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THE

DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE

WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP AND

SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

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