Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Agree... I could see shaded IF the GFS goes along with the NAM for 1730 SPC update Looking at latest NAM/SREF--probably should have done first--would definitely say they stick with slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Looking at latest NAM/SREF--probably should have done first--would definitely say they stick with slight. I meant slight with possible shaded region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 How come nobody ever just wants it to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 How come nobody ever just wants it to rain Rain is boring. Helpful, but boring. I'm in it for the adrenaline rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I meant slight with possible shaded region if they hatch i'd think it's mainly from the central nc/va border area up 95 and to the east. there could still be a timing issue with the main frontal band though i think more often than not models are slow with that so if you speed it up a bit not so much. i could see a batch of more discrete activity out ahead of it, plus potential spinups with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Given it's somewhat conditional probably stay 30%, maybe hatched. It could become a mod tho by tomorrow perhaps. You are generally excellent with forecasting mod risks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 I wish I understood that me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 How come nobody ever just wants it to rain Ahem. *raises hand* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 me too. What would you like to know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 What would you like to know? What does the graph on the right with the curved line mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 12z GFS at KIAD at 18z -- http://68.226.77.253/skewts/GFS-test/030/SKT_GFS__KIAD.png 12z GFS at KBWI at 18z -- http://68.226.77.253/skewts/GFS-test/030/SKT_GFS__KBWI.png 12z GFS at KDCA at 18z -- http://68.226.77.253/skewts/GFS-test/030/SKT_GFS__KDCA.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 What does the graph on the right with the curved line mean? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/help/index.html It is the hodograph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 12z GFS at KIAD at 18z -- http://68.226.77.253/skewts/GFS-test/030/SKT_GFS__KIAD.png 12z GFS at KBWI at 18z -- http://68.226.77.253/skewts/GFS-test/030/SKT_GFS__KBWI.png 12z GFS at KDCA at 18z -- http://68.226.77.253/skewts/GFS-test/030/SKT_GFS__KDCA.png Juxtapose those with NAM's CAPE and those look even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/help/index.html It is the hodograph We aren't stupid to what it is, Matt... We don't know what it means tell us what the hodo is showing exactly rather than post it and go "looks great" or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 where is the new SWODY2?@@@@11?@#1211!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 where is the new SWODY2?@@@@11?@#1211!!! Did you get my email? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Did you get my email? yeah it looks mostly fine thanks. i'll shoot you a note at some pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 We aren't stupid to what it is, Matt... We don't know what it means tell us what the hodo is showing exactly rather than post it and go "looks great" or whatever. Try this link. http://weather.cod.edu/sirvatka/hodo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Ian was closeish Shaded 30 for C VA up into NY.. for us, its BR and east shaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 yeah it looks mostly fine thanks. i'll shoot you a note at some pt. Mostly fine doesn't sound good Try this link. http://weather.cod.edu/sirvatka/hodo.html Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 woo hatching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NERN STATES... IN WAKE OF NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT...RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR ALONG STRENGTHENING 50+ KT LLJ. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND WITHIN PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN WRN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA. CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR. THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED EVOLVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WHERE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES ARE LIKELY INCLUDING LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS. A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO OCCUR IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR THAT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 woo hatching And poss mod risk Sorry mapgirl - I forgot your name - I should have known better... and thanks Disc for the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 We aren't stupid to what it is, Matt... We don't know what it means tell us what the hodo is showing exactly rather than post it and go "looks great" or whatever. Its curves from the surface and creates that letter U type of look. Generally indicates good directional shear in addition to speed shear which as you know is crucial to storm organization. In our severe events/northeast severe events you generally see winds aloft at a west/south west direction and the surface winds out of the south or even southeast/ east. That is exceptional directional shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Mostly fine doesn't sound good no, it was good. i need to check my own numbers once more.. plus maybe a small label change as it's not all EF scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 mod risks arent even that exciting anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 With Hodos picture a dot in the center of the graph. Each one of those points away from the center of the graph represents an altitude. The distance from the center of the graph at which the point has been plotted is increased with windspeed. Now with the point in mind on the graph, think again about the invisible point in the middle we talked about before. Draw a line and meet the two points (imaginary and plotted point). The direction that line points is the wind direction. When you do that for every point you can see how the wind direction and speed differs with height on one simple graph. You can interpret which altitude goes with which point easier by looking at the skew t first. Seeing a long curved hodo like that indicates great shear as you can now visualize for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Hodo with altitude labeled at points and windspeed labeled on graph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Boring. High Risk and a PDS or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 no, it was good. i need to check my own numbers once more.. plus maybe a small label change as it's not all EF scale. Sounds good - just shoot me an email with details and ill take care of it Jay - thanks for the hodo information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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