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September 17-19 2012 rain and severe weather potential


SNO

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I meant slight with possible shaded region

if they hatch i'd think it's mainly from the central nc/va border area up 95 and to the east. there could still be a timing issue with the main frontal band though i think more often than not models are slow with that so if you speed it up a bit not so much. i could see a batch of more discrete activity out ahead of it, plus potential spinups with it.

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...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NERN STATES...

IN WAKE OF NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT...RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH UPPER

60S TO NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR ALONG

STRENGTHENING 50+ KT LLJ. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND

WITHIN PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN WRN

PORTION OF WARM SECTOR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF

MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA.

CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE

RATES AND INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR. THE

MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE FOR SEVERE STORMS

IS EXPECTED EVOLVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG STRENGTHENING

LLJ AND WHERE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST

BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE

DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES ARE LIKELY

INCLUDING LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS. A FEW

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO OCCUR IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER

WARMING OCCURS. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE

PRIMARY THREATS. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A

POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR THAT MORE INSTABILITY

WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

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We aren't stupid to what it is, Matt... We don't know what it means

tell us what the hodo is showing exactly rather than post it and go "looks great" or whatever.

Its curves from the surface and creates that letter U type of look. Generally indicates good directional shear in addition to speed shear which as you know is crucial to storm organization.

In our severe events/northeast severe events you generally see winds aloft at a west/south west direction and the surface winds out of the south or even southeast/ east. That is exceptional directional shear.

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With Hodos picture a dot in the center of the graph. Each one of those points away from the center of the graph represents an altitude. The distance from the center of the graph at which the point has been plotted is increased with windspeed. Now with the point in mind on the graph, think again about the invisible point in the middle we talked about before. Draw a line and meet the two points (imaginary and plotted point). The direction that line points is the wind direction.

When you do that for every point you can see how the wind direction and speed differs with height on one simple graph. You can interpret which altitude goes with which point easier by looking at the skew t first.

Seeing a long curved hodo like that indicates great shear as you can now visualize for yourself.

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