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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part II


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A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE

LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS

CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE

CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT

10 TO 15 MPH.

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Just not ready for another ernesto like performance... :(

The setup is actually looking like an Ernesto Redux... Once again the same TUTT we talked about all of last week will still be in the same position at 92L slides by to the south. And in addition, we have another CCKW that will likely be swinging through the same region. Rinse repeat!

qq7td2.png

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The setup is actually looking like an Ernesto Redux... Once again the same TUTT we talked about all of last week will still be in the same position at 92L slides by to the south. And in addition, we have another CCKW that will likely be swinging through the same region. Rinse repeat!

qq7td2.png

Thought so...wow thats just to much for me.GFS and Euro have that impressive wave about to roll of the African coastline fishing but still plenty of time for that to change though.

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0Z and 6Z GFS very Ernesto-ish on 92L, except it actually does die in the Caribbean just before the resolution chop both runs. African monster wave looking good through 192 hours, may just be beginning to recurve on 6Z GFS at 192. Despite running fairly high, almost 20ºN across. Ensembles show flat zonal flow at 240, obviously smoothed, but even resolution chopped GFS at 240 shows fairly flat flow over the Atlantic downstream of a big closed low at 500 mb over the lakes. Big African wave at that point is close to the Westerlies on Op GFS, but still coming Westward.

Op Euro has African wave pulled up to near 25º well East of the islands, but I think trough is going to leave it behind. It'd be hard to come another 20 plus degrees West at that latitude because it would get caught by anything.

So GFS says there is a chance African wave is a player ECUSA, Euro says probably not.

But I am maintaining my glass 7/32nds full natural optimism for something affecting NYC or SNE subforums in about two weeks. At least close enough for another Cape Cod wave watching party.

Glad someone chased Ernesto, doesn't look like anything obvious into preferred sub-30ºN sweet spot next two weeks.

post-138-0-80565300-1344425014_thumb.gif

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Global hazards from the CPC is depicitng a fairly active MDR over the next few weeks.

Should be ineresting regardless of future tracks.

Sent from my 4G 2

I agree the ITCZ/MDR will be active the next few weeks, but the large scale dynamics don't look to be favorable until the last 10-12 days of the month

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I agree the ITCZ/MDR will be active the next few weeks, but the large scale dynamics don't look to be favorable until the last 10-12 days of the month

Absolutely.

Hate to mention the long range GFS, but it has some pretty decent signals that the MDR will be the place to watch for the last two weeks of August.

Not a fan of how the main activity seems to be in the northern portion of the MDR though. Things will more than likely change by that time anyway. Regardless, we are approaching the peak of the season.

gth_full.png

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92L is still organizing a bit, but not too optimistic about it yet.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

at201292_model.gif

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Hi all-

My real-time multivariate MJO phase space diagram finally suggests that the MJO is entering RMM phase with a sufficient amplitude. RMM phase 1 is associated with anomalous African easterly wave activity (we are observing that), increased convection over the East Pacific and African regions, and increased potential for Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis and hurricanes. It should be noted that RMM phase 3 is the statistically the most favorable RMM phase for genesis, however RMM phase 2 is still a favorable phase for genesis. That being said, we might expect a continuation of enhanced Atlantic tropical cyclone activity through mid August, with conditions quieting down a bit towards the latter half of August.

last.90d.RMMPhase.png

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With globals having done a decent job w/ Ernesto, and w/ globals not at all enthusiastic on 92L's fate once in the Caribbean, I myself must temper my natural optimism as well.

New GFS still has 92L approaching islands as a healthy system, probably a named storm, and approaching the Yucatan near death...

What will probably be 93L in a day and a half slowly gains latitude until the resolution reduction such that recurve seems likely, but not recurved yet at 8 days.

If 92L doesn't completely die, per GFS at the chop, a weak system could start gaining latitude based on forecast 850 mb and 700 mb flow.

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UAlbany/NCAR Real-Time Atlantic Basin AHW EnKF

Ryan D. Torn

Pretty good analysis products on this page. Thought I'd share since things could get active soon.

On another note, the GFS ensembles are in excellent agreement of a strong area of low pressure coming off of Africa in the short term. Not even going to touch the long range for this one.

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New Euro isn't into the Caribbean and death like prior runs and 12Z GFS and CMC for 92L. Much weaker than Big African Wave,

Both would appear to fish per Euro 240 hour position and East Coast trough. The GFS and Canadian would seem to at least give 92L a chance to gain latitude into the Gulf, if there is anything left to gain latitude.

At least they'll probably be action, hopefully 3.5 storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 majors worth.

GFS, GFS Ensembles and Bias Corrected Euro MJO all look reasonably optimistic.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

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92L is continuing to slowly organize today. Weak convection is situated over the surface low with some pretty good low level motion.

Not really a fan of the stratus deck to the NW.

rgb-animated.gif

Oughta be a cherry, IMHO, looking at same image with lat/longs on, awfully close to being a closed low. NHC obviously disagrees, and are the paid experts. I don't even see 12Z GFDL/HWRF guidance...

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