HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Took this shot in Leominster around 7:15PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah they were. They were an issue everywhere...CT did manage a couple severe storms (and at least tornado warning) but everything was pretty ugly overall. Clouds being an issue with associated showers and associated with stuff coming from the mid-Atlantic crapping out lapse rates, yes but as far as limiting heating it really didn't inhibit it all that much...BDL still got close to the mid 80's I believe and Capes were around 2000 J/KG...had we had lapse rates of 6-6.5 C/KM things would have been a little more different I think. We certainly did have clouds around but I don't think they really prevented anything more significant from happening given how there were much more large scale factors inhibiting things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wherever the morning wave goes is key for setting up a potential gradient. That gradient could end up becoming perpendicular to the mean pressure falls, which would support a real enhanced low level shear setup. The valley effect would also occur with the pressure falls. if that event winds up being weak/further north then we mix too much dry air down dewpoints on the 18z nam go from mid 70s over n/cnj to mid 60s over the dc region wed afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Surprise severe tonight, Hull Mass got rocked too. Big hail sig N Scituate Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah the day prior I was mentioning tornadoes on the air... don't do that very often lol. Working tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Working tomorrow? Yup in all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Nice surprise breezy remnant cell here. Looks like it blew up and subsequently fell apart in N RI. Minutes after Skywarn secured for the night, Chepacet RI 61 mph, 3/4 hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Kevin was the only one forecasting a bust. I remember we were joking that's how we knew it would be a huge hit for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Day 2 high risk or bust Yeah, with wording in the day 1 like this ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NERN PA...CNTRL AND ERN NY...NRN CT...WRN AND CNTRL MA...SRN NH AND SRN VT... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE NERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... ...SYNOPSIS... LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS POWERFUL...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AND EJECTS INTO THE NERN STATES. DEEP SFC CYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN ON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NEWD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BACKING SFC WINDS AND A PROMINENT SLY/SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET AREW TRANSPORTING A RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN THE WAKE OF A FAST NWD MOVING WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL VT...NH AND ME. TO THE WEST...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EJECT OUT OF THE PAC NW/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TOWARDS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. LEESIDE SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF CYS AND LIFT SLOWLY NEWD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THIS SFC LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AS 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ...NERN/MID ATLANTIC STATES... CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ESTABLISHED WAA REGIME ACROSS THE REGION IS DECAYING RAPIDLY AS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S F TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S F ARE WELL ESTABLISHED BEHIND RETREATING WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION...COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...HELPING TO ERODE CAPPING AND INCREASE THE CONFIDENCE FURTHER IN SCATTERED...EVEN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BOTH AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL REGIME...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE IN THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD NEWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET /AOA 50 KTS AT H85/ STRENGTHENS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES. 50-70 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WITH VECTORS ALIGNED PERPENDICULAR TO THE INCOMING FRONT WILL SUPPORT AND EVEN FAVOR DISCRETE STORM MODES. AS THESE STORMS PROPAGATE ENEWD WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST THEY WILL MATURE INTO SUPERCELLS RAPIDLY AND BECOME TORNADIC GIVEN VERY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. INTENSIFYING VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 300 M2/S2/ AND ELONGATED/PROMINENTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...GIVEN FAST STORM MOTIONS AND THE EXPECTATION FOR AT LEAST A FEW DOMINANT/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...EVEN A VIOLENT TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA INTO THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN ADEQUATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...CELLS MAY BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO LINES CAPABLE OF SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS. ALONG THE FRONT...AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS SHEAR PROFILES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FAVOR A LINEAR STORM MODE. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THIS FEATURE...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES/LEWPS ALONG THE LINE. A SHALLOW STABILIZED MARINE LAYER MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT NEARER TO THE COAST...ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS OTHERWISE WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL. REGARDLESS...THE POTENTIAL AND LIKELIHOOD FOR A HIGHER END SVR WEATHER EVENT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT FROM ANALYSIS OF CURRENT AND FORECAST PARAMETERS...THEREFORE THE HIGH RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CERTAINTY ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HOWEVER...DECREASING WINDS ALOFT WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT WILL SERVE TO LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SVR POTENTIAL. STILL...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH ALSO POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... AS THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH...AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD A RATHER STRONGLY MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 3000-4500 J/KG/...BUT ROBUSTLY CAPPED AIR MASS ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS MAY ALSO RETARD STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S F...CAPPING SHOULD SUFFICENTLY WEAKEN FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. 35-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. AS LCL HEIGHTS LOWER LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 WITHIN BACKED LOW LEVEL WIND REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NE AND SWRN SD. TORNADO PROBS ACROSS THIS AREA HAVE BEEN RAISED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AND A CATEGORICAL MDT RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY IF STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS IMMINENT. ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS BECOMES MORE WELL DEFINED LATER THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AFTER DARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yup in all week What's the chances of you mentioning possible tornado on air tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I remember we were joking that's how we knew it would be a huge hit for once. I had the phone in my hand to call out for baseball but I just couldn't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 What's the chances of you mentioning possible tornado on air tomorrow? Possible depending on how the models look tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah, with wording in the day 1 like this What's this from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I hope Ekster will post something tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I hope Ekster will post something tonight or tomorrow. I'm surprised you haven't started harrassing him on Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Came up with that as a convective outlook wording if all the ingredients did come together in the northeast. Although I haven't seen what the wording from 5/31/98 looks like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Came up with that as a convective outlook wording if all the ingredients did come together in the northeast. Although I haven't seen what the wording from 5/31/98 looks like... Was that from 6/1/11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Was that from 6/1/11? No that was a 5% tor day haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Possible depending on how the models look tomorrow. Sweet!!! I was hoping to have my iphone today so I could look at models at work tomorrow but nobody has been at my house the past two days to sign for it so the driver didn't leave it. I left a note yesterday for him to do so but I was supposed to sign on the back of that stupid sticky they post to your door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I'm surprised you haven't started harrassing him on Facebook. I asked him the other day but that was when we looked at Friday and I asked him what he thought of Friday and he said it was a great movie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I was just looking through the thread last year. This is a nice page to start on: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Came up with that as a convective outlook wording if all the ingredients did come together in the northeast. Although I haven't seen what the wording from 5/31/98 looks like... The wording from that is EPIC! If you can find online the Albany publication of that event...the entire thing is like 250 pages or something they have an image of the outlooks that day along with the discussion. I have it in a binder in my closet...I'll get it and write-up what the discussion said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Actually it's a Weather Event Simulator which was written and presented by the Warning Decision Training Branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Golf ball in Sciuate, nice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The wording from that is EPIC! If you can find online the Albany publication of that event...the entire thing is like 250 pages or something they have an image of the outlooks that day along with the discussion. I have it in a binder in my closet...I'll get it and write-up what the discussion said. I'm sure it will happen someday, whether it is during our lifetimes (lol) is another story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Boom! http://www.convectiveoutlook.com/highrisk/19801999/98053112_spc.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 The wording from that is EPIC! If you can find online the Albany publication of that event...the entire thing is like 250 pages or something they have an image of the outlooks that day along with the discussion. I have it in a binder in my closet...I'll get it and write-up what the discussion said. Not gonna happen during this meh-tastic severe wx season. I'm waiting for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Not gonna happen during this meh-tastic severe wx season. I'm waiting for winter. And for the Mets to win a WS/Islanders to win the SC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Thursday looks pretty significant for most of the northeast into Mid Atlantic, right now best tornado threat could be from PA to S NY, N NJ, severe storms could be ongoing in the morning also I think tomorrow could be a Moderate for MI,OH,IN,W PA, and on Thursday from E OH/PA/NY/NJ/MA/CT, this could be fairly significant event, lets see what the new outlooks later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 And for the Mets to win a WS/Islanders to win the SC... You didnt just go there. That's low man. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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