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Summer update: With June in the books and modestly cooler than normal, the regional string is broken

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I always get accused of making things up, not looking at stuff...I look at everything.

MRG is the one who looks very very foolish here. talking about a cool, breezy nice summer lol..Nothing but days and days of 60's ahead

Well you both go in opposite extremes, but GC is very warm no doubt. It's all relative, of course it will be cooler at 1400'.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Well the bottom line is that awesome weather is coming up for the next week...

BTV had a great AFD...

"A great stretch of weather is expected for the rest of the weekend and all of next week as high pressure builds into the region...and remains over the northeast through the forecast period.

Surface high pressure bridged aloft by low amplitude upper troughing and dry lower to middle level northwesterly flow all spell an outstanding stretch of middle-Summer weather for our area. Seasonally cool lows/highs from 45-55/75-82 on Tuesday will slowly warm by 1-3 degrees each day through week's end as airmass slowly moderates and moistens."

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Actual 15z temps are running well below MOS 15z progs.

Yep, 3rd time in as many weeks it appears the NAM ...and in this case the GFS probably, too, were over-sold on the amount of penetration NE the continental heat conveyor would succeed. The -NAO is a huge blessing to those that would suffer should it breakdown and thus remove the NW-SE oriented buffer.

Unfortunately, the late middle/extended range continues to flag that is do to happen. We'll see.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Heat failed up here yesterday and BTV said it was due to 925-850 progs being 1-3C cooler than forecast, and now another heat fail today.

The cloud cover is a huge killer. I mean its totally overcast here despite what Kevin is trying to sell. Its a pretty solid cirrus deck.

Not many shadows on the holy cross webcam

http://www.holycross.edu/webcam/

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I think Sunday won't be that hot...at least in terms of a surprise 90-92F day at BOS...there is a pretty darn potent Mid-level front. Could be like a 86-87F type day with low dews though. We'll have to track the front progress though...if it gets hung up a bit, then I could see the sneakier hot scenario. But the front has seemed to speed up a tad on today's guidance.

Saturday I agree with you though...I could see this being the first real day so far that over-performs during a heat dome...but its far from certain. There could be a mini-bust too north of the pike. Cloud debris could be an issue we might have to watch for too close to that boundary. It will just depend on where it sets up...just south of that boundary you could get a nice compressional enhancement.

This might have been an understatement.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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The RH fields hinted at it, but sometimes it's that mid level deck that eventually breaks up a bit during the day. This is stubborn as a mule...or Kevin.

Yeah looping the satellite...looks like we are stuck with this for at least the next couple hours and possible the rest of the day. Its actually raining lightly here right now, lol.

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