CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Friday looks better for tstms now with the front slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Friday looks better for tstms now with the front slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 SPC has us in a SEE TEXT for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 SPC has us in a SEE TEXT for tomorrow I was waiting to see how long it would take you to notice that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I was waiting to see how long it would take you to notice that I had just woke up and looked when I posted that Now off to work until 6! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 FYI if this busts, I did not start this thread..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 :weenie: This is more of a weenie type thread that I do not want to be a part of. At least starting it so far out. That said, could be interesting if front is slow enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 This is more of a weenie type thread that I do not want to be a part of. At least starting it so far out. That said, could be interesting if front is slow enough. The funny part is Wiz thinks we'll see storms tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 The funny part is Wiz thinks we'll see storms tomorrow I wouldn't rule out a few sct tstms in NNE or NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I did not break this off for any specific threat. The other thread was over 1100 replies and this "discussion" about tomorrow and Friday gave a good break point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 The overall pattern isn't bad, so I'm not too worried about each individual model run. Models have been all over the place, which is to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Friday is intriguing as long as we can keep highs dews in here. That may be a struggle but worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Friday is intriguing as long as we can keep highs dews in here. That may be a struggle but worth watching. Hopefully the channeled flow theory is true, because we'll need all the local backing we can get for a chance at a tornadic supercell. But another plains style shelf cloud looks certainly possible, and is the fad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 The funny part is Wiz thinks we'll see storms tomorrow I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Was looking at the twisterdata maps and 18z NAM had over 1500-2000 J/KG of Cape across much of CT 18z Friday...looking at 18z NAM bufkit for BDL it only has about 700 J/KG of Cape 18z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 There are some major differences between the NAM and the GFS, especially with the lapse rates...GFS has lapse rates up around 6.5 C/KM while the NAM is right around 5.5 C/KM to 6 C/KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Saturday could be a little interesting for eastern SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 The 0z NAM has some pretty crazy instability numbers for 12z Friday...then again it also has dewpoints in the mid 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 The SREF though does have very high probs for dewpoints >70F on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Saturday looks interesting. Kind of reminds me of some event that happened...was somewhere between 2004-2006. Anyways we had severe wx on that Friday and it was a pretty potent event. That Saturday I remember not even expecting a chance of storms and it was cloudy out all day if I recall...I looked outside to the west and it was completely dark...I turned on the TV to TWC and looked on the radar and saw this massive line coming...I called my brother at the library and told him and he was going to come home...he ended up getting stuck in it and the winds were so strong he couldn't ride the bike. There was also a tornado warning issued and the strongest rotation was near Wolcott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 While the probability is very low for tomorrow (Wednesday) we do have to watch for some sort of late development, especially across northern and central New England...looks like there are some very weak height falls and shear isn't all too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Still SEE TEXT for today!!! Unfortunately though I'll be working although not sure what I want to do...maybe 12-6 or 1-6...maybe even 12-8 or 1-8. Depends on how tired I am I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Friday looks like a pretty typical summertime FROPA with little shear and plenty of instability. I am pretty disappointed with this surge of heat and the potential strong convection with it. Any localized mid level wind maxima coupled with the favorable 200mb divergence could bring a nice cluster of multicells. Also, a storm propagation with a southeastward component would possibly enhance tilt and storm relative shear but I am reaching here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 Friday looks like a pretty typical summertime FROPA with little shear and plenty of instability. I am pretty disappointed with this surge of heat and the potential strong convection with it. Any localized mid level wind maxima coupled with the favorable 200mb divergence could bring a nice cluster of multicells. Also, a storm propagation with a southeastward component would possibly enhance tilt and storm relative shear but I am reaching here. It looked like the vortmax and low development might initiate a decent batch of storms Friday Night. But, it's SNE and like the last heat event in July 2011...nothing happened. Just how it goes sometimes....but I am a little intrigued about Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 It looked like the vortmax and low development might initiate a decent batch of storms Friday Night. But, it's SNE and like the last heat event in July 2011...nothing happened. Just how it goes sometimes....but I am a little intrigued about Friday night. Yeah not a bad s/w and SLP up your way. It at least gives you guys a fighting chance for something. Maybe we will see a better defined mid level wind take shape on tomorrow's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 friday's front looks even slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 friday's front looks even slower Friday looks dam hot here in ern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 friday's front looks even slower Definitely agree that the front is slower. There is also a bit of 30kt deep layer shear across the interior so there is probably going to be some multicell action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Friday looks like a pretty typical summertime FROPA with little shear and plenty of instability. I am pretty disappointed with this surge of heat and the potential strong convection with it. Any localized mid level wind maxima coupled with the favorable 200mb divergence could bring a nice cluster of multicells. Also, a storm propagation with a southeastward component would possibly enhance tilt and storm relative shear but I am reaching here. shear is pathetic... we'll get a disorganized mess that splits around nnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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