CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 And those reasons are why EML are prolific lightning producers. Relates to #3 and graupel production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 Fat CAPE through cloud's ice layer is a good indicator. That's the best one. You get that violent plains like strobe flicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I used "greater than" and I should have just said "warmer than" instead. You see all the chaos your poor wording is causing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 The wet microburst deal seems like the biggest threat. Would think its borderline to even be in slight risk, but it's the CAPE that will cause any fun, not shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 And those reasons are why EML are prolific lightning producers. Relates to #3 and graupel production. When's the next EML advection? I'm feeling mid-July. That's the best one. You get that violent plains like strobe flicker. Agreed. You see all the chaos your poor wording is causing? LOL. I never know if CT Rain is messing around or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 The wet microburst deal seems like the biggest threat. Would think its borderline to even be in slight risk, but it's the CAPE that will cause any fun, not shear. You mean you don't enjoy flash flooding? I do agree though, that as far as the SPC severe criteria goes, wet microbursts will be the culprits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 LOL. I never know if CT Rain is messing around or not. lol Sorry I misunderstood your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 You mean you don't enjoy flash flooding? I do agree though, that as far as the SPC severe criteria goes, wet microbursts will be the culprits. Yeah 50 knot gusts will not be widespread but I do think it will be a very active afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Yeah 50 knot gusts will not be widespread but I do think it will be a very active afternoon. Actually today will probably be pretty miserable for the warning forecasters. These are the kind of days where nothing is obviously severe. You don't have these clean thresholds for hail, you're just trying to catch a core before it dumps a boatload of rain and wind on somebody. So you are glued to the radar and keyed up for hours just like a June 1st kind of day, only everything looks like mush. Pretty draining and almost more nerve fraying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Actually today will probably be pretty miserable for the warning forecasters. These are the kind of days where nothing is obviously severe. You don't have these clean thresholds for hail, you're just trying to catch a core before it dumps a boatload of rain and wind on somebody. So you are glued to the radar and keyed up for hours just like a June 1st kind of day, only everything looks like mush. Pretty draining and almost more nerve fraying. Definitely. And when something becomes severe either by radar or observing, it won't do you much good to extrapolate the track. The motions will be more chaotic and things will pulse up and down quickly. Best of luck to our NWS folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhj Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 golfin in se ct today will be done by 530pm will i get my round in???? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 BOX..sounds like things kick off around 3:00pm or so MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MLCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 2000+ J/KG SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER WHICH HAS BEEN MISSING LAST FEW DAYS. THE STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR THEN MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AND 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 25-30 KT. THIS IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WITH MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. AND SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW MICROBURSTS WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT GIVEN HIGH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2" WITH ISOLD FLOODING A CONCERN IF STORMS CAN TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 BOX..sounds like things kick off around 3:00pm or so MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. MLCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 2000+ J/KG SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER WHICH HAS BEEN MISSING LAST FEW DAYS. THE STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR THEN MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AND 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE 25-30 KT. THIS IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WITH MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. AND SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW MICROBURSTS WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT GIVEN HIGH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2" WITH ISOLD FLOODING A CONCERN IF STORMS CAN TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. I think it may be earlier than 3 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Actually today will probably be pretty miserable for the warning forecasters. These are the kind of days where nothing is obviously severe. You don't have these clean thresholds for hail, you're just trying to catch a core before it dumps a boatload of rain and wind on somebody. So you are glued to the radar and keyed up for hours just like a June 1st kind of day, only everything looks like mush. Pretty draining and almost more nerve fraying. Yup pretty much. Wouldn't be surprised to see several decent flash flooding reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I think it may be earlier than 3 here. Yeah I saw on air you had anytime after 1:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Yeah I saw on air you had anytime after 1:00. Yeah for western areas at least. Think we'll see a relatively early show that sticks around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Yeah for western areas at least. Think we'll see a relatively early show that sticks around. Though the HRRR and our 4km WRF have trended a bit slower so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 the 18z give or take has been a good threshold for a couple days now in timing convection. however, i've been more concerned on the early side. Convective temps will be reached by late morning, and i expect scattered stuff to be popping up shortly edit: storms popping up along the jersey shore already (not where i visioned) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 You mean you don't enjoy flash flooding? I do agree though, that as far as the SPC severe criteria goes, wet microbursts will be the culprits. If I can get a good storm with heavy rain and decent lightning, it's a win in my book. I'm up in the lakes region until late today so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Though the HRRR and our 4km WRF have trended a bit slower so we'll see. Slower is better. Let's time them for typical peak damage time which always seems to be 3:00-6:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2012 Author Share Posted June 22, 2012 This could be a good setup for Phil regarding storms late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 This could be a good setup for Phil regarding storms late tonight. yeah i think a lot of the afternoon activity has a tough time getting here but looks to be a shot later tonight. probably some good downpours and lightning. mildly interested in sat PM too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 yeah i think a lot of the afternoon activity has a tough time getting here but looks to be a shot later tonight. probably some good downpours and lightning. mildly interested in sat PM too Stuck under some cloud debris here at work in Ledyard CT 86/73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Not much chance for hail, correct (I know, SNE, hail, but I figured I would ask) Looking for some hail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 If I can get a good storm with heavy rain and decent lightning, it's a win in my book. I'm up in the lakes region until late today so we'll see what happens. Flash flood hotspot for us actually. I expect timely storm reporting, since I assume you only need one hand for your beer. We've actually got a good deal of moisture just above the surface, so dew points are actually mixing up initially this morning. It is a fairly shallow layer, so I expect them to start mixing down later in the afternoon. Still, mid 80s over mid 60s produces pretty good CAPE values (1500ish) based off the 12z GYX sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Not much chance for hail, correct (I know, SNE, hail, but I figured I would ask) Looking for some hail... wbz heights are fairly high you might have a better shot at some pea-size hailers tomorrow afternoon if some stuff can fire off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Not much chance for hail, correct (I know, SNE, hail, but I figured I would ask) Looking for some hail... Soundings are quite saturated, and hence warmer as you move into the upper levels..so hail is not a big threat today at all. This is also why the conversation has been more about torrential rains and wet microbursts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 From Noyes on Twitter @MattNoyesNECN A slug of dry air aloft may limit areal coverage of thunderstorms in Central NewEng today, focus SE NY, CT, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 From Noyes on Twitter @MattNoyesNECN A slug of dry air aloft may limit areal coverage of thunderstorms in Central NewEng today, focus SE NY, CT, NJ The HRRR has been pretty consistent through the last few runs of suppressing convection from NH through the CT/MA border. Basically forming clusters in the Tri-State area and central ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 From Noyes on Twitter @MattNoyesNECN A slug of dry air aloft may limit areal coverage of thunderstorms in Central NewEng today, focus SE NY, CT, NJ I don't buy that logic btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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