NJwinter23 Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Saturday looks interesting. Kind of reminds me of some event that happened...was somewhere between 2004-2006. Anyways we had severe wx on that Friday and it was a pretty potent event. That Saturday I remember not even expecting a chance of storms and it was cloudy out all day if I recall...I looked outside to the west and it was completely dark...I turned on the TV to TWC and looked on the radar and saw this massive line coming...I called my brother at the library and told him and he was going to come home...he ended up getting stuck in it and the winds were so strong he couldn't ride the bike. There was also a tornado warning issued and the strongest rotation was near Wolcott. This is my exact narrative for that day in September 2010 with the tornados/macroburst in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 If we continue to see the front move slower we may have to deal with the potential for strong storms on Saturday with Friday being more isolated. Notice how by Saturday the front is still across western SNE and it's slowed down so much that the trough axis and stronger winds aloft have actually nearly met up with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 If we continue to see the front move slower we may have to deal with the potential for strong storms on Saturday with Friday being more isolated. Notice how by Saturday the front is still across western SNE and it's slowed down so much that the trough axis and stronger winds aloft have actually nearly met up with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 I actually like the look of Friday. Though shear as has been mentioned isn't great... it's not god awful. Maybe 30 knots or so 0-6km bulk shear here in SNE. What I do like is decent sfc convergence, decent instability, and a nice right entrance region of a nice jet streak. All of that should lead to a fun day even though high end/sig severe seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 I actually like the look of Friday. Though shear as has been mentioned isn't great... it's not god awful. Maybe 30 knots or so 0-6km bulk shear here in SNE. What I do like is decent sfc convergence, decent instability, and a nice right entrance region of a nice jet streak. All of that should lead to a fun day even though high end/sig severe seems unlikely. If you "like the look" of it for thunderstorms, then yes it is a great setup. If you are looking for significant severe, it is on the "meh" side of things right now. I do agree that the jet quadrant and modest 30 knot deep layer shear will develop a nice cluster of multicells; but, this is looking like a more traditional summertime fropa than anything memorable at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 If you "like the look" of it for thunderstorms, then yes it is a great setup. If you are looking for significant severe, it is on the "meh" side of things right now. I do agree that the jet quadrant and modest 30 knot deep layer shear will develop a nice cluster of multicells; but, this is looking like a more traditional summertime fropa than anything memorable at this time. Agred. Meh for sig svr like I said but we could see some pretty nice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 BOX thinks big damage Friday * SEVERE WX AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT PSBL * HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES PSBL DURING THE DAY WARM AIR ADV PRECEDING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE GRT LKS RGN WILL AMPLIFY THE LOW-MID LVL RIDGE SLIGHTLY ENOUGH TO SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE SFC COLD FRNT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRIMING OF AN UNSTABLE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY OF AROUND 3K J/KG CAPE COLLOCATED WITH A SW-NE AXIS OF BUILDING SUBTROPICAL AIR /PWATS ADVERTISED OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT THRU MUCH OF THE ATMOS COLUMN PRESENTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRNT. BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG THE FRNT WITH W/SWLY ORIENTATION OF THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS AVERAGING AROUND 35 KTS /THERE APPEARS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CELLS ALONG THE FRNT BECOMING DISCREET SHOULD THEY BECOME RIGHT-MOVERS/. OVERALL WITH ALL POINTS CONSIDERED...EXPECT A LINE PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRNT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS... AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS PSBLY RESULTING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLASH FLOODING /0-6 KM MEAN WIND IS SW-NE AROUND 20 MPH...AND THUS BOTH A SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING SCENARIO IS QUITE PSBL/. MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW-MID 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S MAY RESULT IN A THIRD DAY OF HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES AND THE REQUIREMENT OF HEAT ADV FOR PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS CLOUDS ASSOC WITH DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRNT MAY NEGATE THE IMPACTS DUE TO HEATING OF THE DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 BOX thinks big damage Friday * SEVERE WX AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT PSBL * HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES PSBL DURING THE DAY WARM AIR ADV PRECEDING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE GRT LKS RGN WILL AMPLIFY THE LOW-MID LVL RIDGE SLIGHTLY ENOUGH TO SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE SFC COLD FRNT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRIMING OF AN UNSTABLE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY OF AROUND 3K J/KG CAPE COLLOCATED WITH A SW-NE AXIS OF BUILDING SUBTROPICAL AIR /PWATS ADVERTISED OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT THRU MUCH OF THE ATMOS COLUMN PRESENTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRNT. BETTER JET DYNAMICS LAG THE FRNT WITH W/SWLY ORIENTATION OF THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS AVERAGING AROUND 35 KTS /THERE APPEARS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CELLS ALONG THE FRNT BECOMING DISCREET SHOULD THEY BECOME RIGHT-MOVERS/. OVERALL WITH ALL POINTS CONSIDERED...EXPECT A LINE PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRNT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS... AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS PSBLY RESULTING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLASH FLOODING /0-6 KM MEAN WIND IS SW-NE AROUND 20 MPH...AND THUS BOTH A SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING SCENARIO IS QUITE PSBL/. MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW-MID 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S MAY RESULT IN A THIRD DAY OF HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES AND THE REQUIREMENT OF HEAT ADV FOR PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS AS CLOUDS ASSOC WITH DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRNT MAY NEGATE THE IMPACTS DUE TO HEATING OF THE DAY. That's a nice job by Sipprell on the long term disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 The heights over southern Greenland were already anomalous, and the ongoing phase between the s/w in the Northern plains and the Arctic jet is just going to rip them up further. During the day tomorrow, HP closes off in nearly a Bermuda high position, and only slowly works east as the continental storm sinks in the face of the rex block. The mention of training does seem legit as this is a relatively stable pattern. I don't think the cap breaks tomorrow, at least in SNE. On the off chance it does, maybe a wind threat, but the bigger risk would be the boundary left behind for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Tiny shower (maybe thunder?) over the Monadnocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Tiny shower (maybe thunder?) over the Monadnocks. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Slight Risk for Friday!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Friday really pisses me off. Since it would mainly be a wind threat type day the right conditions aren't exactly present to give us a widespread damaging wind event. Given how PWATS are pretty much near 2'' (which is INSANE for this time of year) we may be looking more of a heavy rain/flash flooding threat with reports of wind damage here and there. Can't completely rule out some hail reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Holy crap...Monday looks rather interesting. Looks like an eastern NY/extreme southwestern CT special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Man what a Phail tomorrow is shaping up to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 The 6z GFS / NAM basically are less impressive across the SLT risk areas, even though the mid level winds did come up a bit. They hold onto some convection overnight into the morning, limiting the full extent of the instability tomorrow. If the potential heat cannot be realized, then it will fail...as simple as that. Monday is of course interesting on the new data. An unseasonable / unsummer-like trough (thanks to recurving typhoon and blocking) will make things really interesting if we become unstable enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 The 6z GFS / NAM basically are less impressive across the SLT risk areas, even though the mid level winds did come up a bit. They hold onto some convection overnight into the morning, limiting the full extent of the instability tomorrow. If the potential heat cannot be realized, then it will fail...as simple as that. Monday is of course interesting on the new data. An unseasonable / unsummer-like trough (thanks to recurving typhoon and blocking) will make things really interesting if we become unstable enough. ginxy will like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 ginxy JB will like that. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Monday could be a fun svr day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Monday could be a fun svr day Yup...and it will happen b/c that begins my first day of full time work for the summer and I was hoping to order my iphone 4s today but now I have to hold off until Monday and now I have to go to work!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Monday could be a fun svr day Nice Tor setup . We called that 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 Nice Tor setup . We called that 2 days ago Probably too much srly flow and clouds keeping instability low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Probably too much srly flow and clouds keeping instability low. Yeah east of the ct river it's a tough setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21, 2012 Author Share Posted June 21, 2012 Yeah east of the ct river it's a tough setup. Good from west Hartford on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Good from west Hartford on west. lol... seriously though that's a nice setup for Berks/Litchfield Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Monday could be a fun svr day monday has always looked better than friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Monday looks like all of SNe gets in on it. Even Bos could get severe in that setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Monday looks like all of SNe gets in on it. Even Bos could get severe in that setup Doubt it with SSE winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Doubt it with SSE winds Oct 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Ryan Frederick Hanrahan... What do you think for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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