CT Rain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Ryan Frederick Hanrahan... What do you think for tomorrow? Wrong. Widespread convection... some flirt with severe limits. Definitely not high-end but hopefully good light show and some good heavy rain. As for Monday... Euro says total fail with early fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Wrong. Widespread convection... some flirt with severe limits. Definitely not high-end but hopefully good light show and some good heavy rain. As for Monday... Euro says total fail with early fropa. Francis. My bad Looking at evening into overnite tomorrow or will they bomb us later afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 As we introduce some instability overnite and higher dews advect back in..don't be shocked if we get some storms to pop up over NY State and ride into SNE..Not widespread..but could see a couple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 21, 2012 Share Posted June 21, 2012 Francis. My bad Looking at evening into overnite tomorrow or will they bomb us later afternoon? Lol yes... And afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Well today should be fun as there will be a great deal of t'storms around but severe wx will likely be on the more isolated side of things. What a waste of heat/humidity. Anyways Monday still looks interesting although not quite a setup that would probably produce widespread severe wx either, however, if a few cells can become mature enough and tap into the decent shear they could produce something fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Widespread or siggy severe seems very unlikely today but I do expect widespread storms and probably multiple rounds of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I'm going to work probably 9-6 today but I'm just doing random things. I have to start/finish sharpening the hockey skates today which I estimate should take around 3.5 hours or so then I have to setup stuff to get ready for camp on Monday so if any storms happen to hit while I'm working I'll at least be able to go outside and enjoy them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Damaging rains and lightning today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I'll be happy today if I get a couple of good light shows or some nice loud thunder. I am keeping my expectations very low today. I agree with wiz that this is a waste of heat/humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I've seen worse lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Isolated microbursts are possible with soundings like that but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Isolated microbursts are possible with soundings like that but I'm not holding my breath. Kevin is expecting widespread damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Not too shabby when you have these numbers at 9 AM: SBcape about 1000-2000 J/kG (even higher across NJ) MLcape about 500-1000 J/KG MUcape 1000-2000 J/KG (even higher across NJ) LI values of -3C to -4C 0-6km shear values are 30 knots and there actually is a great deal of it which is just off to our west and appears to be a little ahead than modeled. One thing I don't like though is 925/850mb winds are W/NW...I thought models had them more from SW (maybe they will eventually turn) but this would reduce convergence along the pre-frontal trough/cold front/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Kevin is expecting widespread damage. Ha. In some town today, I am sure that they will see "widespread damage." Not too shabby when you have these numbers at 9 AM: SBcape about 1000-2000 J/kG (even higher across NJ) MLcape about 500-1000 J/KG MUcape 1000-2000 J/KG (even higher across NJ) LI values of -3C to -4C 0-6km shear values are 30 knots and there actually is a great deal of it which is just off to our west and appears to be a little ahead than modeled. One thing I don't like though is 925/850mb winds are W/NW...I thought models had them more from SW (maybe they will eventually turn) but this would reduce convergence along the pre-frontal trough/cold front/. Numerous thunderstorms a good possibility Low level winds and how this manifests across the northern Mid Atlantic will be interesting for sure. A distinct boundary exists across NJ at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Kevin is expecting widespread damage. I am? i expect damaging lightning and rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Ha. In some town today, I am sure that they will see "widespread damage." Numerous thunderstorms a good possibility Low level winds and how this manifests across the northern Mid Atlantic will be interesting for sure. A distinct boundary exists across NJ at the moment. At least with high MUcape values there should be lots of CG lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I am? i expect damaging lightning and rains HA! The spinner got spun on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Today's one of those days where we should see some prolific lightning producers..with numerous hits on trees and buildings..Always happens in these high cape enviro's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Well off to work...hopefully something comes through. Since I don't have my phone yet (have to wait to order it Monday when I get my craigslist check b/c I had to pay an extra $150 from my rink check to rent) I'll bring my plug in wx radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Ha. In some town today, I am sure that they will see "widespread damage." Numerous thunderstorms a good possibility Low level winds and how this manifests across the northern Mid Atlantic will be interesting for sure. A distinct boundary exists across NJ at the moment. Yeah I think widespread storms (and maybe even a few rounds of them) are a good bet. Sig severe or widespread severe is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 SPC upgraded just CT to slight risk ...MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... A BREAK FROM THE RECENT HEAT IN THE EAST WILL EVENTUALLY COME IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY SATURDAY. A VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE LIKELY TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG FROM NC TO NYC. TSTMS SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BREACHED EARLY AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES COINCIDENT WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 30KT. THUS...EXPECT MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH UPDRAFTS OCCASIONALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OR PERSISTING IN THE PRESENCE OF POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND/OR POSITIVE STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. BRIEF EXTREME RAINFALL AND WET MICROBURSTS WITH SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 At least with high MUcape values there should be lots of CG lightning. Overall, your statement is true most of the time, especially with the deep layer CAPE we will have today. However, don't always assume the MUCAPE will be a good indicator because it only takes the most unstable parcel. Several papers have documented what to look for but here is a quick list: 1) LCL at or warmer than -10°C (more likely to have supercooled droplets) 2) EL at or colder than -20°C (more likely that cloud top is above the charge reversal temp zone) 3) Sufficient CAPE (allowing for updraft speeds of 6 m/s or greater) in the lower mixed phase region of the cloud (mixed phase is -10 to -40°C so lower end is at or warmer than -20°C let's say). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 SPC upgraded just CT to slight risk ...MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... A BREAK FROM THE RECENT HEAT IN THE EAST WILL EVENTUALLY COME IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY SATURDAY. A VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE LIKELY TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG FROM NC TO NYC. TSTMS SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BREACHED EARLY AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES COINCIDENT WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 30KT. THUS...EXPECT MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH UPDRAFTS OCCASIONALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OR PERSISTING IN THE PRESENCE OF POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND/OR POSITIVE STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. BRIEF EXTREME RAINFALL AND WET MICROBURSTS WITH SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY Perfect outlook; Could not agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Perfect outlook; Could not agree more. Yup... most of CT has been in slgt risk by SPC. their reasoning looks spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Overall, your statement is true most of the time, especially with the deep layer CAPE we will have today. However, don't always assume the MUCAPE will be a good indicator because it only takes the most unstable parcel. Several papers have documented what to look for but here is a quick list: 1) LCL at or greater than -10°C (more likely to have supercooled droplets) 2) EL at or below -20°C (more likely that cloud top is above the charge reversal temp zone) 3) Sufficient CAPE (allowing for updraft speeds of 6 m/s or greater) in the lower mixed phase region of the cloud (mixed phase is -10 to -40°C so lower end is below -20°C let's say). should this be +10ºC? -10 is a pretty chilly LCL for a t-storm day edit: Ehh not really I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 should this be +10ºC? -10 is a pretty chilly LCL for a t-storm day The numbers are correct; they are just general guidelines for determining the potential for CG lightning year-round. There is no question today all criteria is met. So yes, you can simplify days like today with simply looking at a CAPE parameter. I just wanted to make sure he doesn't always do that for determining CG potential. LCL temps will be +12 to +18 today easy EL temps will be well well well below -20 (like -40 or lower). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 The numbers are correct; they are just general guidelines for determining the potential for CG lightning year-round. There is no question today all criteria is met. So yes, you can simplify days like today with simply looking at a CAPE parameter. I just wanted to make sure he doesn't always do that for determining CG potential. LCL temps will be +12 to +18 today easy EL temps will be well well well below -20 (like -40 or lower). Gotcha. thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 The numbers are correct; they are just general guidelines for determining the potential for CG lightning year-round. There is no question today all criteria is met. So yes, you can simplify days like today with simply looking at a CAPE parameter. I just wanted to make sure he doesn't always do that for determining CG potential. LCL temps will be +12 to +18 today easy EL temps will be well well well below -20 (like -40 or lower). LCL less than -10? That's not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 And those statements are a reason why EMLs are prolific lightning producers. Fat CAPE through cloud's ice layer is a good indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 LCL less than -10? That's not right. I used "greater than" and I should have just said "warmer than" instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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