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June 1st - 12th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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Considering we have moved out of May into June, here's the new thread, I'll start with the latest D 4-8.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0351 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH

MOST OF THE PERIOD...DEPICTING A WRN U.S. TROUGH MOVING EWD WHILE A

LOW/TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EAST. AS A RESULT...AN AMPLIFYING

RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME

INCREASINGLY NARROW/PINCHED...WITH AN OVERALL BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN

THUS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR IN THE ERN U.S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST RE-EVOLVES DUE TO PASSAGE OF

SHORT-WAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW. THE GFS

AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND

EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST...BUT THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION IS QUITE

DIFFERENT -- AND THUS PREDICTABILITY OF ANY RESULTING CONVECTIVE

POTENTIAL IS ALSO LOW.

FARTHER W...THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE HIGH

PLAINS...AS A LEE TROUGH PERSISTS. GIVEN BACKGROUND RIDGING

HOWEVER...THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY

SMALL/DIFFICULT-TO-FORECAST FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE

FLOW. BY DAY 7...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN DEPICTING THE

INTERACTION OF THE ADVANCING WRN TROUGH WITH THE RIDGE. THUS --

WHILE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD BE

ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL...MODEL DIFFERENCES

PRECLUDE ANY FORECASTS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM.

..GOSS.. 06/01/2012

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Well i'm still learning the model thing as I go, so if I say something stupid forgive me. All I know is that TwisterData NAM option shows a trough moving in from the West Coast under the Day 3-4, and GFS does under 3-8, but doesn't do much with it. Gotta learn somehow.

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Nice triple point today for the Panhandle region with an active boundary potential. It should make for an active afternnon for our chasers in that region to see some nice high based storms and hopefully some decent photo ops before storm segment transtion into a more linear complex.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0238 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021938Z - 022115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION HAS IT

MIGRATES OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG THE

FRONT RANGE OF CO INTO NERN NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS AIDED IN PART BY A

WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES.

HOWEVER...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL

BE INSTRUMENTAL IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS

THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 INTO NERN NM. LATEST

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 650-600 MB AND

WITH TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SFC NEAR 35 F IT WOULD SEEM

PLAUSIBLE THAT LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH

SOME HAIL. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING WANES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE

TX SOUTH PLAINS THERE IS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS RETURNING NWD

INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS MAY ALSO FOCUS TSTM ACTIVITY LATER THIS

AFTERNOON.

..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/02/2012

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

post-32-0-51127800-1338666526_thumb.gif

post-32-0-41901300-1338666608_thumb.jpg

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Tomorrow could be very interesting in East-Central/ Northeast KS... If we can get a Discrete Supercell or two... Considering the CAPE (3000-4500 j/kg), 0-1KM EHI (around 3+ in a concentrated area), and the 0-1KM Helicity (200+ in a concentrated area), along with almost no CIN ... Although, as to be expected, the LCL's might be a bit high (1250-750)... the 12Z NAM is showing from 33h to around 42h (at least that's how long it shows the High EHI)...

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It's more efficient having a thread for 7 to 10 days... Besides we haven't had terribly great potential lately...

You write as if I've never been on the Internet, or on a Forum for that matter.

Until we get a more substantial looking system locked in on the models, yes it is probably better to keep the open ended like this, but you probably shouldn't be be coming in with a post like this when you conducted yourself the way you did in the previous thread.

Whoever started the May 22nd threat should cap that one off at the 31st.

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Well poo, Springfield, MO NWS starting to play up severe weather tomorrow. 18z NAM shows some high levels of EHI (probably due to dewpoints being too high) but regardless it looks like there's a decent shot of severe.

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We have a convective system here that started up in the mountains, with dew points of 30's and 40's. We've now got essentially three warned storms in Colorado. The shear is pretty weak though. I am getting wind gusts of 15-20mph here... 500mb winds are about 15 knots. I say, June 1st is the beginning of hail season out here.

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Until we get a more substantial looking system locked in on the models, yes it is probably better to keep the open ended like this, but you probably shouldn't be be coming in with a post like this when you conducted yourself the way you did in the previous thread.

Whoever started the May 22nd threat should cap that one off at the 31st.

Thinking about that, I'm sorry... I've gotta learn to stay chill and quite whenever somebody says I did something/ said something that wasn't needed or asinine... Oh, and not harp on the SPC...

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I'm keeping an eye on the potential set-up in the Northern Plains Tuesday. There's a deepening surface Low in Montana that could make things interesting, but because of the h5 trough being negatively tilted (thank you, stupid Omega block) it really cuts down on helicity.

Still though, you've got around 1500-2000 J/Kg of SB CAPE and 55-60 F dews advecting into an area that usually already sees afternoon thunderstorm development, with the added lift from a quasi dryline you might get some stuff to fire in eastern Montana or the far western Dakotas. LCLs are a bit high for tornado potential (as evidenced by meager 0-1 km EHI) but 0-3 km EHI is approaching 6 on the 18z NAM, and there could be at least a conditional supercell threat up that way.

The big thing I'm watching right now is the placement of the surface Low and the orientation of the h85 Low. The GFS appears to be the farthest west with the SLP at 0z Wed, while the NAM is the farthest east. Therefore, the NAM has more turning from the surface to 850 than the GFS, and also pops stuff in a more chase-able territory, i.e. western Dakotas and extreme northeast Wyoming, than central and northern Montana a la the GFS.

I'm headed out with Valpo starting Monday, so I'll be keeping an eye on things. And Tony will be there too to correct everything I say. :P

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01Z SmartCast Update: Currently tracking across the western TX to western KS area, potential for strong to Isolated Severe thunderstorms. Amarillo, Dalhart, Dodge City, Garden City, and Goodland. Potential to strong convective wind gusts mainly up to around 71mph possible.

Data view: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

If there was a mark as spam button on this site i'd use it. I have yet to see you do anything besides advertise your website here.

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If there was a mark as spam button on this site i'd use it. I have yet to see you do anything besides advertise your website here.

Hey Buckeye05, not trying to advertise my site at all, all the links I post is the actual data for my discussion, I never point it to my main site, only give the direct link to the data that is relevant. I don't advertise anything. I don't have anything to advertise, I built this product from scratch over my 20 years of weather experience to help provide another aspect or angle to any type of weather event.

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