andyhb Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Considering we have moved out of May into June, here's the new thread, I'll start with the latest D 4-8. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012 VALID 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...DEPICTING A WRN U.S. TROUGH MOVING EWD WHILE A LOW/TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EAST. AS A RESULT...AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NARROW/PINCHED...WITH AN OVERALL BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN THUS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR IN THE ERN U.S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST RE-EVOLVES DUE TO PASSAGE OF SHORT-WAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST...BUT THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION IS QUITE DIFFERENT -- AND THUS PREDICTABILITY OF ANY RESULTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS ALSO LOW. FARTHER W...THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE TROUGH PERSISTS. GIVEN BACKGROUND RIDGING HOWEVER...THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY SMALL/DIFFICULT-TO-FORECAST FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW. BY DAY 7...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN DEPICTING THE INTERACTION OF THE ADVANCING WRN TROUGH WITH THE RIDGE. THUS -- WHILE MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL...MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE ANY FORECASTS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM. ..GOSS.. 06/01/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Current system looks like it's gonna stall out for a bit. However, NAM and GFS both agree on another deep trough coming in behind it. NAM is the only one that ejects it in a notable fashion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 2, 2012 Author Share Posted June 2, 2012 That isn't even within the NAM's range, so I don't know what you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Well i'm still learning the model thing as I go, so if I say something stupid forgive me. All I know is that TwisterData NAM option shows a trough moving in from the West Coast under the Day 3-4, and GFS does under 3-8, but doesn't do much with it. Gotta learn somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 What happened to severe threads for given events? Not June 1 to ????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Nice triple point today for the Panhandle region with an active boundary potential. It should make for an active afternnon for our chasers in that region to see some nice high based storms and hopefully some decent photo ops before storm segment transtion into a more linear complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 What happened to severe threads for given events? Not June 1 to ????? It's more efficient having a thread for 7 to 10 days... Besides we haven't had terribly great potential lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 It's more efficient having a thread for 7 to 10 days... you haven't even been posting here for 7 to 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0238 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 021938Z - 022115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION HAS IT MIGRATES OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO INTO NERN NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS AIDED IN PART BY A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. HOWEVER...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 INTO NERN NM. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 650-600 MB AND WITH TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SFC NEAR 35 F IT WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING WANES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS THERE IS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS RETURNING NWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS MAY ALSO FOCUS TSTM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/02/2012 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 you haven't even been posting here for 7 to 10 days You write as if I've never been on the Internet, or on a Forum for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 You write as if I've never been on the Internet, or on a Forum for that matter. sup reber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 sup reber. Yup, posting style reeks of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 You write as if I've never been on the Internet, or on a Forum for that matter. Take it to OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Tomorrow could be very interesting in East-Central/ Northeast KS... If we can get a Discrete Supercell or two... Considering the CAPE (3000-4500 j/kg), 0-1KM EHI (around 3+ in a concentrated area), and the 0-1KM Helicity (200+ in a concentrated area), along with almost no CIN ... Although, as to be expected, the LCL's might be a bit high (1250-750)... the 12Z NAM is showing from 33h to around 42h (at least that's how long it shows the High EHI)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 2, 2012 Author Share Posted June 2, 2012 It's more efficient having a thread for 7 to 10 days... Besides we haven't had terribly great potential lately... You write as if I've never been on the Internet, or on a Forum for that matter. Until we get a more substantial looking system locked in on the models, yes it is probably better to keep the open ended like this, but you probably shouldn't be be coming in with a post like this when you conducted yourself the way you did in the previous thread. Whoever started the May 22nd threat should cap that one off at the 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Well poo, Springfield, MO NWS starting to play up severe weather tomorrow. 18z NAM shows some high levels of EHI (probably due to dewpoints being too high) but regardless it looks like there's a decent shot of severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 I've kinda liked tomorrow as a sleeper. 500 winds are a bit weak but OK. Might be our last chase if the models hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 We have a convective system here that started up in the mountains, with dew points of 30's and 40's. We've now got essentially three warned storms in Colorado. The shear is pretty weak though. I am getting wind gusts of 15-20mph here... 500mb winds are about 15 knots. I say, June 1st is the beginning of hail season out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Until we get a more substantial looking system locked in on the models, yes it is probably better to keep the open ended like this, but you probably shouldn't be be coming in with a post like this when you conducted yourself the way you did in the previous thread. Whoever started the May 22nd threat should cap that one off at the 31st. Thinking about that, I'm sorry... I've gotta learn to stay chill and quite whenever somebody says I did something/ said something that wasn't needed or asinine... Oh, and not harp on the SPC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 I've kinda liked tomorrow as a sleeper. 500 winds are a bit weak but OK. Might be our last chase if the models hold. Do you know where you guys might be targeting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 Do you know where you guys might be targeting? Haven't really looked at details yet. We are in Campo now shooting for Dodge City or Pratt for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 sup reber. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 2, 2012 Share Posted June 2, 2012 I'm keeping an eye on the potential set-up in the Northern Plains Tuesday. There's a deepening surface Low in Montana that could make things interesting, but because of the h5 trough being negatively tilted (thank you, stupid Omega block) it really cuts down on helicity. Still though, you've got around 1500-2000 J/Kg of SB CAPE and 55-60 F dews advecting into an area that usually already sees afternoon thunderstorm development, with the added lift from a quasi dryline you might get some stuff to fire in eastern Montana or the far western Dakotas. LCLs are a bit high for tornado potential (as evidenced by meager 0-1 km EHI) but 0-3 km EHI is approaching 6 on the 18z NAM, and there could be at least a conditional supercell threat up that way. The big thing I'm watching right now is the placement of the surface Low and the orientation of the h85 Low. The GFS appears to be the farthest west with the SLP at 0z Wed, while the NAM is the farthest east. Therefore, the NAM has more turning from the surface to 850 than the GFS, and also pops stuff in a more chase-able territory, i.e. western Dakotas and extreme northeast Wyoming, than central and northern Montana a la the GFS. I'm headed out with Valpo starting Monday, so I'll be keeping an eye on things. And Tony will be there too to correct everything I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 01Z SmartCast Update: Currently tracking across the western TX to western KS area, potential for strong to Isolated Severe thunderstorms. Amarillo, Dalhart, Dodge City, Garden City, and Goodland. Potential to strong convective wind gusts mainly up to around 71mph possible. Data view: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 01Z SmartCast Update: Currently tracking across the western TX to western KS area, potential for strong to Isolated Severe thunderstorms. Amarillo, Dalhart, Dodge City, Garden City, and Goodland. Potential to strong convective wind gusts mainly up to around 71mph possible. Data view: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm If there was a mark as spam button on this site i'd use it. I have yet to see you do anything besides advertise your website here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2012 Author Share Posted June 3, 2012 If there was a mark as spam button on this site i'd use it. I have yet to see you do anything besides advertise your website here. He has posted those since well before you were here, just fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 He has posted those since well before you were here, just fyi. But the comment isn't too far off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 If there was a mark as spam button on this site i'd use it. I have yet to see you do anything besides advertise your website here. Hey Buckeye05, not trying to advertise my site at all, all the links I post is the actual data for my discussion, I never point it to my main site, only give the direct link to the data that is relevant. I don't advertise anything. I don't have anything to advertise, I built this product from scratch over my 20 years of weather experience to help provide another aspect or angle to any type of weather event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Alright I guess that is understandable, no hard feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 GA and FL may have a shot some time this week. The Euro brings a piece of the EML TUE-WED over the FL panhandle with about 30KT winds at 850MB. I'm guessing MCS because surface winds look of weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.