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May 4th - 16th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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TOG with the embedded sup approaching Albert Lea:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

552 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN FARIBAULT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

WESTERN FREEBORN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 549 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 4 MILES

WEST OF KIESTER...OR ABOUT OVER BRICELYN. RADAR SHOWED THE TORNADIC

STORM MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

KIESTER...

CONGER...

ALDEN...

EMMONS...

TWIN LAKES...

WALTERS...

MANSFIELD...

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Baro better haul @$$

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 629 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF ERICSON...OR 19 MILES EAST

OF BURWELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
           ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     8 NW ERICSON            41.86N 98.79W 
05/04/2012                   GARFIELD           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER 


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The Iowa bow echo is producing funnels.

TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED WINDS OF 50 TO 55 MPH IN NORA

SPRINGS AT AROUND 645 PM. SOME FUNNELS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE

STORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED...HOWEVER THESE HAVE NOT TOUCHED DOWN

AND NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED.

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* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN GREELEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

NORTHEASTERN VALLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 720 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF FORT HARTSUFF STATE PARK...OR 9

MILES NORTHEAST OF ORD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

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Attn Baro: I read your AFD early this morning before I went to work, looked at the previous 0z runs of the GFS,ECMWF, and Nam, and I agreed the NAM looked a little strange. I thought it was very well written and found it a pleasure to read. All in all a great job.

It appears as if the !8z NAM has come more in line with the ECMWF/GFS for the NE/SD event, in particular from 700mb down to 925.

Does anyone agree or disagree?

On a side note the Nam, is having serious problems as to were to place the greatest precipitation for Saturday night through Sunday evening. For the last 3 runs or so, it has gone from the I-90 corridor to northern IA and with the latest run (18z) to the far northern parts of WI.

On the other hand the GFS and ECMWF have been pretty consistent showing it from, say Eastern SD into Central MN. Not that I'm trying to bash the NAM, but I'm having a hard time trying to trust it right now. Having said that the 12z UKMET does tend to lend some support to the northern path.

I've been looking at the chance for flash floods Saturday night through Sunday. Although I don't think it is probable that there will be wide spread flash flooding, there is some chances that localized area's could experience it.

I've been looking at this link, does anyone have a better one?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/ffg.php

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Attn Baro: I read your AFD early this morning before I went to work, looked at the previous 0z runs of the GFS,ECMWF, and Nam, and I agreed the NAM looked a little strange. I thought it was very well written and found it a pleasure to read. All in all a great job.

It appears as if the !8z NAM has come more in line with the ECMWF/GFS for the NE/SD event, in particular from 700mb down to 925.

Does anyone agree or disagree?

On a side note the Nam, is having serious problems as to were to place the greatest precipitation for Saturday night through Sunday evening. For the last 3 runs or so, it has gone from the I-90 corridor to northern IA and with the latest run (18z) to the far northern parts of WI.

On the other hand the GFS and ECMWF have been pretty consistent showing it from, say Eastern SD into Central MN. Not that I'm trying to bash the NAM, but I'm having a hard time trying to trust it right now. Having said that the 12z UKMET does tend to lend some support to the northern path.

I've been looking at the chance for flash floods Saturday night through Sunday. Although I don't think it is probable that there will be wide spread flash flooding, there is some chances that localized area's could experience it.

I've been looking at this link, does anyone have a better one?

http://www.srh.noaa....fcshare/ffg.php

NAM is sitll on its own island, but it has come slightly into more agreement. But it certainly is farther E.

NAM has a massive EHI bullseye across SD along the warm front. Has some of the longest looping hodographs I have seen in ages. 0-3 km EHI's in excess of 7-9 are ridiculous.

That type of a hodograph with 3000 j/kg of CAPE to work with is an eye opener.

post-999-0-12887200-1336186818_thumb.png

post-999-0-04578700-1336186940_thumb.png

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If I were chasing tomorrow i'd target the Winner-Mitchell, SD area based on the 0z NAM. This area is just north of greater capping and high LCL's, and is in an area with a stronger upper flow... Great wind profile/hodo's too.

Wish I could be out there, but it just doesn't look like it's going to happen.

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Per Baro's AFD from last night when he mentioned a Derecho. It looks like this thing could start around the NE/SD border move into MN and WI than drop drown and follow the southern edge of the Great Lakes area than cut up into the NE US. Depending on how much moisture this thing has to work with on its trek to the east coast, this event could fun to watch as it unfolds.

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That will be a close call for sure, the biggest problem may be getting back home, see my next post.

Might be too close. I was too busy today with work to get a car rental, and the ones around here don't open until 9am. I told myself I would get out any chance that I had this year, and I hate to pass up on something that has the potential to be somewhat slow moving, and not in an area that will be flooded with other chasers.

Going to wait and look at some models come in and see if I have a chance to get in the area in time.

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Yikes, looking at the Nam, after this system forms near SD/NE it moves east and ahead of it on its way to the east coast is a nice pool a rich moisture as seen by 65° dews.

Has anyone seen a thread talking about this possible Derecho event? It looks a bit like July 3rd 1999, albeit it's early and the rich dews won't be as far north. (the key phrase here is a bit like )

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I like the O'Neill to Spencer Nebraska area for tomorrow. Right on the nose of the theta-e/cape ridge. Surface winds actually go northeast north of the SD border if you believe the NAM.

I'm a little concerned about relatively weak winds in the lowest few km, but strong instability, nice mid-upper support/velocities, and ridiculous hodos all look fantastic. We're all gonna be leaving here at 6am, so that should give us plenty of time to get out there. Good luck to all heading out tomorrow.

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DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0354 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MID-UPPER CYCLONE NEAR CANADIAN BORDER...DESCRIBED IN DAY-2/DAY-3

OUTLOOKS...SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS ONT TOWARD SWRN QUE

DAY-4/8TH-9TH. DISCREPANCIES AMONG GUIDANCE GET FAIRLY LARGE BY

THIS TIME REGARDING TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND RELATED

TROUGHING SWD ACROSS ERN CONUS. WHILE SOME SVR IS EXPECTED

ALONG/AHEAD OF RELATED SFC COLD FRONT...MOST PROBABLY OVER CENTRAL

APPALACHIANS TO TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION DAY-4...TOO MUCH

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY AND FRONTAL

CHARACTERISTICS TO WARRANT AOA 30% UNCONDITIONAL SVR AREA ATTM.

MEANWHILE...AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR MAY OCCUR FROM RIO GRANDE AREA OF

SW TX TO PECOS VALLEY OR ERN NM DAYS 4-6/8TH-11TH...AS PREVIOUSLY

CUT-OFF LOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AGAIN. NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION

SHOULD CROSS PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES DAYS 4-6...POTENTIALLY YIELDING

SOME SVR THREAT OVER NRN PLAINS DAY-6/10TH-11TH. WHILE DEEP-LAYER

SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE

RETURN MAY BE WEAK BASED ON MREF/ECMWF GUIDANCE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/05/2012

The highlighted part caught my attention, given the strong kinematics with the northern stream system, this could be an interesting potential that may have been overlooked a bit, although moisture may be hard to come by with the current progged LL flow pattern. I noticed the Euro has a rather well developed LLJ at 144 hrs, which would also provide a threat to the Southern Prairie provinces adjacent to ND (Derek, are you listening lol), although this is rather far out, the models' continuing trend of weakening the southern stream anomaly could prove favorable/make moisture return slightly less difficult...

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