baroclinic_instability Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 I am getting this close to heading out. That warm front is really establishing itself...new cells firing along it. Ton of low level frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 What the heck...heading to eastern Custer Cty with a co-worker. Hoping more development along the quasi warm front and/or the remnants of that convectively enhanced boundary dropping south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Two new tornado warnings embedded in the squall line in Iowa and Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 TOG with the embedded sup approaching Albert Lea: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 552 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN FARIBAULT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... WESTERN FREEBORN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT * AT 549 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 4 MILES WEST OF KIESTER...OR ABOUT OVER BRICELYN. RADAR SHOWED THE TORNADIC STORM MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... KIESTER... CONGER... ALDEN... EMMONS... TWIN LAKES... WALTERS... MANSFIELD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 2302 1 NW KIESTER FARIBAULT MN 4355 9373 TREES DAMAGED FROM THE TORNADO. (MPX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Baro better haul @$$ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... SOUTHWESTERN WHEELER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT * AT 629 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF ERICSON...OR 19 MILES EAST OF BURWELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 634 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0631 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 8 NW ERICSON 41.86N 98.79W 05/04/2012 GARFIELD NE TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 That bow echo in Iowa is really impressive. I bet it is causing some pretty incredible winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 The Iowa bow echo is producing funnels. TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED WINDS OF 50 TO 55 MPH IN NORA SPRINGS AT AROUND 645 PM. SOME FUNNELS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED...HOWEVER THESE HAVE NOT TOUCHED DOWN AND NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN GREELEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA... NORTHEASTERN VALLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 800 PM CDT * AT 720 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF FORT HARTSUFF STATE PARK...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Watching this derecho in the GL/OV sub forum too. Got a camera view from Waverly. Was just showing some impressive mammantus clouds. UWM sat image over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 0z NAM pushes things a tad S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Attn Baro: I read your AFD early this morning before I went to work, looked at the previous 0z runs of the GFS,ECMWF, and Nam, and I agreed the NAM looked a little strange. I thought it was very well written and found it a pleasure to read. All in all a great job. It appears as if the !8z NAM has come more in line with the ECMWF/GFS for the NE/SD event, in particular from 700mb down to 925. Does anyone agree or disagree? On a side note the Nam, is having serious problems as to were to place the greatest precipitation for Saturday night through Sunday evening. For the last 3 runs or so, it has gone from the I-90 corridor to northern IA and with the latest run (18z) to the far northern parts of WI. On the other hand the GFS and ECMWF have been pretty consistent showing it from, say Eastern SD into Central MN. Not that I'm trying to bash the NAM, but I'm having a hard time trying to trust it right now. Having said that the 12z UKMET does tend to lend some support to the northern path. I've been looking at the chance for flash floods Saturday night through Sunday. Although I don't think it is probable that there will be wide spread flash flooding, there is some chances that localized area's could experience it. I've been looking at this link, does anyone have a better one? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/ffg.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Good-looking storm SE of Broken Bow NE near Ansley and Mason City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Attn Baro: I read your AFD early this morning before I went to work, looked at the previous 0z runs of the GFS,ECMWF, and Nam, and I agreed the NAM looked a little strange. I thought it was very well written and found it a pleasure to read. All in all a great job. It appears as if the !8z NAM has come more in line with the ECMWF/GFS for the NE/SD event, in particular from 700mb down to 925. Does anyone agree or disagree? On a side note the Nam, is having serious problems as to were to place the greatest precipitation for Saturday night through Sunday evening. For the last 3 runs or so, it has gone from the I-90 corridor to northern IA and with the latest run (18z) to the far northern parts of WI. On the other hand the GFS and ECMWF have been pretty consistent showing it from, say Eastern SD into Central MN. Not that I'm trying to bash the NAM, but I'm having a hard time trying to trust it right now. Having said that the 12z UKMET does tend to lend some support to the northern path. I've been looking at the chance for flash floods Saturday night through Sunday. Although I don't think it is probable that there will be wide spread flash flooding, there is some chances that localized area's could experience it. I've been looking at this link, does anyone have a better one? http://www.srh.noaa....fcshare/ffg.php NAM is sitll on its own island, but it has come slightly into more agreement. But it certainly is farther E. NAM has a massive EHI bullseye across SD along the warm front. Has some of the longest looping hodographs I have seen in ages. 0-3 km EHI's in excess of 7-9 are ridiculous. That type of a hodograph with 3000 j/kg of CAPE to work with is an eye opener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Effective STP from the 12z GFS tomorrow evening The 18z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Is this looking like early evening initiation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 If I were chasing tomorrow i'd target the Winner-Mitchell, SD area based on the 0z NAM. This area is just north of greater capping and high LCL's, and is in an area with a stronger upper flow... Great wind profile/hodo's too. Wish I could be out there, but it just doesn't look like it's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Is this looking like early evening initiation? 0z Nam shows possibly by 21z but more like 0z to 3z to be honest, for the FSD area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 0z Nam shows possibly by 21z but more like 0z to 3z to be honest, for the FSD area. It's South Dakota, The sun doesn't set there until about 9pm Central time so there could still be a couple of good hours chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 I can only leave here 9am earliest, looks like a 9 or so hour drive from Chicago and am worried if things go early it will be pushing it too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 I can only leave here 9am earliest, looks like a 9 or so hour drive from Chicago and am worried if things go early it will be pushing it too close. That will be a close call for sure, the biggest problem may be getting back home, see my next post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Per Baro's AFD from last night when he mentioned a Derecho. It looks like this thing could start around the NE/SD border move into MN and WI than drop drown and follow the southern edge of the Great Lakes area than cut up into the NE US. Depending on how much moisture this thing has to work with on its trek to the east coast, this event could fun to watch as it unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 That will be a close call for sure, the biggest problem may be getting back home, see my next post. Might be too close. I was too busy today with work to get a car rental, and the ones around here don't open until 9am. I told myself I would get out any chance that I had this year, and I hate to pass up on something that has the potential to be somewhat slow moving, and not in an area that will be flooded with other chasers. Going to wait and look at some models come in and see if I have a chance to get in the area in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Yikes, looking at the Nam, after this system forms near SD/NE it moves east and ahead of it on its way to the east coast is a nice pool a rich moisture as seen by 65° dews. Has anyone seen a thread talking about this possible Derecho event? It looks a bit like July 3rd 1999, albeit it's early and the rich dews won't be as far north. (the key phrase here is a bit like ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 I like the O'Neill to Spencer Nebraska area for tomorrow. Right on the nose of the theta-e/cape ridge. Surface winds actually go northeast north of the SD border if you believe the NAM. I'm a little concerned about relatively weak winds in the lowest few km, but strong instability, nice mid-upper support/velocities, and ridiculous hodos all look fantastic. We're all gonna be leaving here at 6am, so that should give us plenty of time to get out there. Good luck to all heading out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 I will be out tomorrow, thinking the Winner,SD area. Since Tuesday I've been out everyday lol loving this strecth but a man needs a rest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 NSSL WRF looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 New Day one outlook.....It looks like this site is having some problems, I can't see who is on the treads among other things. the slight area looks pretty good to me, maybe the far NE area could be expanded by 50 miles of so, but that is splitting hairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0354 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012 VALID 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... MID-UPPER CYCLONE NEAR CANADIAN BORDER...DESCRIBED IN DAY-2/DAY-3 OUTLOOKS...SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS ONT TOWARD SWRN QUE DAY-4/8TH-9TH. DISCREPANCIES AMONG GUIDANCE GET FAIRLY LARGE BY THIS TIME REGARDING TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND RELATED TROUGHING SWD ACROSS ERN CONUS. WHILE SOME SVR IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF RELATED SFC COLD FRONT...MOST PROBABLY OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION DAY-4...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY AND FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS TO WARRANT AOA 30% UNCONDITIONAL SVR AREA ATTM. MEANWHILE...AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR MAY OCCUR FROM RIO GRANDE AREA OF SW TX TO PECOS VALLEY OR ERN NM DAYS 4-6/8TH-11TH...AS PREVIOUSLY CUT-OFF LOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AGAIN. NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION SHOULD CROSS PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES DAYS 4-6...POTENTIALLY YIELDING SOME SVR THREAT OVER NRN PLAINS DAY-6/10TH-11TH. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE WEAK BASED ON MREF/ECMWF GUIDANCE. ..EDWARDS.. 05/05/2012 The highlighted part caught my attention, given the strong kinematics with the northern stream system, this could be an interesting potential that may have been overlooked a bit, although moisture may be hard to come by with the current progged LL flow pattern. I noticed the Euro has a rather well developed LLJ at 144 hrs, which would also provide a threat to the Southern Prairie provinces adjacent to ND (Derek, are you listening lol), although this is rather far out, the models' continuing trend of weakening the southern stream anomaly could prove favorable/make moisture return slightly less difficult... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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