H2O Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm gonna wait for DT to chime in on the euro before jumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm gonna wait for DT to chime in on the euro before jumping ****ALERT ALERT 12z euro has major errors ignore WOOF OUT**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm gonna wait for DT to chime in on the euro before jumping ******ALEET****** ******* ALEET********* I was wrong and the GFS is king, winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 ****ALERT ALERT 12z euro has major errors ignore WOOF OUT**** lol dude it's right where we want it.. if we like high clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 lol dude it's right where we want it.. if we like high clouds. i'll be in raleigh this weekend so i'll be probably be on the northern edge of the precip shield...34 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm gonna wait for DT to chime in on the euro before jumping He is doing play by play in his chatroom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 This should bring the post count down for Ellinwood to like now that the Euro goes OTS Yup. No need to discuss anything other than the Euro and GFS now. And ponies. Can't forget the ponies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 one thing ive enjoyed this winter is usually cautious people like matt going out on snow limbs. weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeniesm grows stronger as the days become longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yup. No need to discuss anything other than the Euro and GFS now. And ponies. Can't forget the ponies. Every time yoda posts a GGEM map a pony dies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Every time yoda posts a GGEM map a pony dies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Good news JB just said, Euro is having trouble with the system in the Southwest and he still thinks we get the storm. Weenie hope is alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 DT backing down... "I have for the last few days of favored the flatter solution as a general overall outlook be cause of this particular winter pattern. The last two winters ...if you farted too loud you get a snowstorm the East Coast because the pattern allowed phasing... in fact it forced a lot of phasing or merging between the two jet streams. This result in a lot of big East Coast winter storms. This winter as we all know has been a very mild winter because the main pattern or flow has been coming in from the Pacific not from Canada and the arctic regions. THUS for THIS possible event I suspect that constant Pacific Jet stream energy will keep coming in from the West Coast pushing the Southern System on an easterly or eastern northeasterly track and not allowing it to turn up the coast." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Good news JB just said, Euro is having trouble with the system in the Southwest and he still thinks we get the storm. Weenie hope is alive. i think that's weenie rule 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 btw the gfs and the euro handle that energy almost exactly the same in the sw which i already checked as i figured that was on its way out sometime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 btw the gfs and the euro handle that energy almost exactly the same in the sw which i already checked as i figured that was on its way out sometime The low up north is much stronger on the 12z Euro than it was on the 00z run. The GFS has had this strong low as well, which keeps the flow zonal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 i think that's weenie rule 32 That is way higher than 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 DT backing down... "I have for the last few days of favored the flatter solution as a general overall outlook be cause of this particular winter pattern. The last two winters ...if you farted too loud you get a snowstorm the East Coast because the pattern allowed phasing... in fact it forced a lot of phasing or merging between the two jet streams. This result in a lot of big East Coast winter storms. This winter as we all know has been a very mild winter because the main pattern or flow has been coming in from the Pacific not from Canada and the arctic regions. THUS for THIS possible event I suspect that constant Pacific Jet stream energy will keep coming in from the West Coast pushing the Southern System on an easterly or eastern northeasterly track and not allowing it to turn up the coast." I guess like usual JB will be the last to fold and if by some mircale he is right he can claim he had those thoughts from over a week out and never wavered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 btw the gfs and the euro handle that energy almost exactly the same in the sw which i already checked as i figured that was on its way out sometime but you're breaking weenie rule# 3 by logically analyzing all relevant model data, because if a = b, then a =! b because b exhibits bias that backs up your fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The low up north is much stronger on the 12z Euro than it was on the 00z run. The GFS has had this strong low as well, which keeps the flow zonal more often than not that type of low is forecast too strong which is probably why there's room for it to lift north without a phase. but there are a number of reasons why the flow is mainly zonal.. i think the least likely solution is a big amped phased low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 DT backing down... "I have for the last few days of favored the flatter solution as a general overall outlook be cause of this particular winter pattern. The last two winters ...if you farted too loud you get a snowstorm the East Coast because the pattern allowed phasing... in fact it forced a lot of phasing or merging between the two jet streams. This result in a lot of big East Coast winter storms. This winter as we all know has been a very mild winter because the main pattern or flow has been coming in from the Pacific not from Canada and the arctic regions. THUS for THIS possible event I suspect that constant Pacific Jet stream energy will keep coming in from the West Coast pushing the Southern System on an easterly or eastern northeasterly track and not allowing it to turn up the coast." now the storm will come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 more often than not that type of low is forecast too strong which is probably why there's room for it to lift north without a phase. but there are a number of reasons why the flow is mainly zonal.. i think the least likely solution is a big amped phased low off the coast. Oh I don't doubt that - was just stating what I saw from last night and today. Even with the phase something is needed for the storm to come north, otherwise it is OTS. The low up north at least provided something to bring it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Randy's bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Every time yoda posts a GGEM map a pony dies Not my ponies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 more often than not that type of low is forecast too strong which is probably why there's room for it to lift north without a phase. but there are a number of reasons why the flow is mainly zonal.. i think the least likely solution is a big amped phased low off the coast. And the most likely solution to have an all snow event is to get fringed with an ots track. Getting all fired up into thinking we're going to have an amped coasted is not realistic but having the storm juicy enough to put down 2-4" on the nw fringe isn't all that unrealistic. at least I don't think it is. If the precip comes in at night and starts as snow it will probably stay all snow. 2-4" ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Every time yoda posts a GGEM map a pony dies So, you would like me to post every map on the 00z GGEM tonight, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 So, you would like me to post every map on the 00z GGEM tonight, right? Only if they are good please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 So, you would like me to post every map on the 00z GGEM tonight, right? That, the Ukie and DGEX please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 That, the Ukie and DGEX please Understood. That should kill.. oh I dunno... 100 ponies at least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 That, the Ukie and DGEX please Ugh, don't ever put the UKMet Model in the same sentence as the DGEX. K. Thanks. (yes, I realize I just did) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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