Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks like there is some potential for some wintry weather starting this Sat the 11th in a few places. This will most likely stay confined to the higher elevations though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Isolated to maybe scattered convective type SN-squalls for the northern coastal plain Saturday afternoon as the northern stream vort comes through. Nothing of consequence, just some cool looking nimbus, quick pickup in wind, and a minute or two of moderate SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This system seems to be picking up a little bit of steam as it evolves on the model runs. Looks like it might not be to bad (by this years standards) above 3500'. Curious to see how it does in the valleys though. Like the fact that there is some potential for fetch off the lakes. We will see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Isolated to maybe scattered convective type SN-squalls for the northern coastal plain Saturday afternoon as the northern stream vort comes through. Nothing of consequence, just some cool looking nimbus, quick pickup in wind, and a minute or two of moderate SN. Perfect to gain some steam for the next system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 MHX must be leaning heavily ECMWF in terms of qpf here. 60% pops Friday night with amounts between 0.1 & 0.25". American guidance has been pretty consistent over the last several runs in the 0.5-1" range, 12z Euro was a fringe job, even for the coastal sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This is what falls Saturday night into Sunday morning according to the 0z GFS. Have not checked out soundings, but given thickness and 850's approaching -10C, this is likely all SN in NE NC/SE VA... 12z GFS in the second graphic for comparison same period, Saturday night into Sunday morning, i.e. after the cold air arrives. Know is it not much, but maybe a couple slushy inches in the tidewater area, on a RN soaked ground of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Wow, no love for this tread? MRX has WWA for NE TN & the spine. GSP will probably post one today. Not alot of snow but the favored flow areas could be looking at 4"+. Wind & cold are going to be issues also. My forecast high for Sat. is 31° but falling to 25° by 5 pm. Suprised the mnt crew isn't in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think there will be a few in the NW "surprised" by a few flakes Saturday. I'm not expecting much more than that in our area but this one was REALLY close, at least modeling wise, to producing much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Wow, no love for this tread? MRX has WWA for NE TN & the spine. GSP will probably post one today. Not alot of snow but the favored flow areas could be looking at 4"+. Wind & cold are going to be issues also. My forecast high for Sat. is 31° but falling to 25° by 5 pm. Suprised the mnt crew isn't in here. Your right Don! I do agree this event could be a good one for the favored NW flow poeple. I was just talking about the possibility of maybe the favored areas getting 2-4 inches or even 3-6 inches. I am pretty excited about this event. With an artic high coming in and temps dropping rapidly with plent of moisture to work with things could get white quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Wow, no love for this tread? MRX has WWA for NE TN & the spine. GSP will probably post one today. Not alot of snow but the favored flow areas could be looking at 4"+. Wind & cold are going to be issues also. My forecast high for Sat. is 31° but falling to 25° by 5 pm. Suprised the mnt crew isn't in here. Representing with ya Don!!! You would think FranklinWx or Rainforrest would chime in with their excitement. Funny how we get excited about a possible dusting for the valleys and 4" + along the TN spin this winter, but hey we'll take what we can get! Met 1985, I look forward to your post and perhaps a pic or two would be cool as you, SnoJoe and CAD Addict look to be the winners out of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Representing with ya Don!!! You would think FranklinWx or Rainforrest would chime in with their excitement. Funny how we get excited about a possible dusting for the valleys and 4" + along the TN spin this winter, but hey we'll take what we can get! Met 1985, I look forward to your post and perhaps a pic or two would be cool as you, SnoJoe and CAD Addict look to be the winners out of this system. Def looking foward to some obs reports. If we are lucky in Weaverville we might get a couple of inches....I will be happy with white ground though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 New Winter Weather Advisories... http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/4878888 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pathfinder Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'll be in Villas this weekend, we planned this back in fall so I got lucky with this system. Either way looking forward to some snow, wind and cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ya the mountain guys!!! Ya i am going to try to post some pics up if i can figure out how. I think we will be in an advisory by 5 today i think. This should be a fun event. I have to work till nine tonight but after that game on! Ya hope everyone reports in quit often on this event since this is the first real threat that we have hade in sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'll be in Villas this weekend, we planned this back in fall so I got lucky with this system. Either way looking forward to some snow, wind and cold! Were ar you staying at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like GSP will jump in with the afternoon afd. This is from the morning update: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AT 1055 AM...LOOKS LIKE A BUSY COUPLE PERIODS COMING UP IN THE FORECAST. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS SOMEWHAT AS A RESULT. LOTS OF VIRGA ON RADAR...BUT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM EASTERN AREAS FOR TODAY AS ALL MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE EAST WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO...BUMPED POPS UP INTO CATEGORICAL LATE TONIGHT AND SAT OVER COUNTIES ADJACENT TO TN. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT NW FLOW SNOW EVENT SHAPING WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH ON SAT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ADVISORY TYPE SNOW AND PERHAPS EVEN WARNING. WILL SETTLE ON AN APPROPRIATE HEADLINE WITH AFTERNOON ISSUANCE AFTER I HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO EVALUATE ALL THE LATEST DATA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 A few light snow reports over Nrn Miss. currently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Looks like GSP will jump in with the afternoon afd. This is from the morning update: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AT 1055 AM...LOOKS LIKE A BUSY COUPLE PERIODS COMING UP IN THE FORECAST. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS SOMEWHAT AS A RESULT. LOTS OF VIRGA ON RADAR...BUT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND EXCEPT MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM EASTERN AREAS FOR TODAY AS ALL MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE EAST WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO...BUMPED POPS UP INTO CATEGORICAL LATE TONIGHT AND SAT OVER COUNTIES ADJACENT TO TN. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT NW FLOW SNOW EVENT SHAPING WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH ON SAT. LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ADVISORY TYPE SNOW AND PERHAPS EVEN WARNING. WILL SETTLE ON AN APPROPRIATE HEADLINE WITH AFTERNOON ISSUANCE AFTER I HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO EVALUATE ALL THE LATEST DATA. Look at that Don even maybe warning level! Just what we had been talking about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pathfinder Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Were ar you staying at? I think it's off Bairds Creek Rd, I have it plugged into the car but not sure exactly where it is, I just know Villas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think it's off Bairds Creek Rd, I have it plugged into the car but not sure exactly where it is, I just know Villas. Nice well hopefully yall will see a couple of inches of snow werever you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 This event kind of snuck up on me...I've been so busy with school lately that I've neglected to check up on the weather at all. Anyhoo, I have all my supplies (case of beer and camera) ready to go. I'll keep y'all updated. And good to have you in the area, Pathfinder! You're only about 4 miles from my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Great to see the weekend event coming in a bit heavier than expected with accumulations. Looks to be enough natural snow to hopefully get in some back country Cross Country Skiing on Saturday !!!! Woo hoo! Winter salvation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pathfinder Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Nice well hopefully yall will see a couple of inches of snow werever you are. This event kind of snuck up on me...I've been so busy with school lately that I've neglected to check up on the weather at all. Anyhoo, I have all my supplies (case of beer and camera) ready to go. I'll keep y'all updated. And good to have you in the area, Pathfinder! You're only about 4 miles from my place. Thanks..looking forward to it. Even though it's not a huge snow it's better than nothing. I suspect the wind and cold will be the biggest stories though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 MHX calling for snow extreme NE NC AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED STRONG DPVA AND PV ANOMALY WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND COUNTIES...GIVEN VERY COLD LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES. THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION RANGING FROM JUST A DUSTING TO BETWEEN A HALF AND AN INCH OVER THE FAR NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. WITH CONFIDENCE BECOMING FAIRLY HIGH...WILL FORECAST ABOUT 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR NOW IN THESE AREAS AND WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 WWA from GSP: Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 134 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 ...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT... .ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AND SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. COLD AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NCZ033-048>052-058-110245- /O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0004.120211T0500Z-120212T1100Z/ AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY... WAYNESVILLE 134 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BORDERING TENNESSEE. * HAZARDS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. * TIMING...BEGINNING TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. * IMPACT...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS * TEMPERATURES...WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 20S BY MORNING ABOVE 3500 FT AND TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN FALL INTO TEENS AND 20S BY EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. * WINDS...WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3500 FEET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Temps were forecasted 6+ degrees to high here in the northern foothills. Much closer to 40 than 50. Some drops of rain making it to the ground. Heard some reports of mixed precip just to my west up the mountain already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Cloudy and 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Picked up 3/4 of an inch here as of 10:30 p.m. Radar showing an impressive area of snow moving in from KY now. Precip. began here around 4 this afternoon as a R/S mix below 1600 ft. with all snow above that ele. from the get go. It became all snow here around 6 as intensity increased. Very wet snow as temp has held @ 32 for much of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Picked up 3/4 of an inch here as of 10:30 p.m. Radar showing an impressive area of snow moving in from KY now. Precip. began here around 4 this afternoon as a R/S mix below 1600 ft. with all snow above that ele. from the get go. It became all snow here around 6 as intensity increased. Very wet snow as temp has held @ 32 for much of the time. All rain here so far, temp is around 34. Painful waiting game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Still nothing to speak of here in Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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