Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Since this threat has firmed up and it is no longer in the medium range I felt it needed it own thread.. I think north GA, at least north of the perimeter will see some snow, but accumulation is the question. Looks like the area in the mountains and over to Gainesville and Athens could maybe get an inch or two if the precip comes in fast enough. I guess we may get some benefit from the brief -NAO after all... Euro is rolling..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 0Z Doc says snow for far N GA, AL, and MS, all of TN, W Carolinas 2/13-4. 2-4" except 4"+ much of TN!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro shows little significant differences from the 00Z run- precip arrives in north GA between 06Z and 12Z- 0 line at 850 is from just east of CHA to GVL to AHN at 12Z. Would mean some snow north and NE of the ATL metro- evap cooling will be a big factor here. Not that big of a deal really compared to last season, but at least it is something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 0Z Doc says snow for far N GA, AL, and MS, all of TN, W Carolinas 2/13-4. 2-4" except 4"+ much of TN!! I am listening. Sounds like a quick thump I-40 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 How important is 1000-500mb thickness when 850's are marginal? The Thickness just looks really borderline to not good enough for AL/GA/SC/most of NC, (mountains excluded). Although TN looks quite a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro shows little significant differences from the 00Z run- precip arrives in north GA between 06Z and 12Z- 0 line at 850 is from just east of CHA to GVL to AHN at 12Z. Would mean some snow north and NE of the ATL metro- evap cooling will be a big factor here. Not that big of a deal really compared to last season, but at least it is something... 2-4 and 4+ is a huge deal up this way. I am guessing you are talking more for the ATL area and northern GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hey Larry, is this something thats a far bigger deal for western and middle tennessee. just looking at 500 it appears as if this dampens out toward east TN, which i would assume means the precip also peters out the further east you are. Additionally, I am guessing BNA looks like a good spot to be? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 How important is 1000-500mb thickness when 850's are marginal? The Thickness just looks really borderline to not good enough for AL/GA/SC/most of NC, (mountains excluded). Although TN looks quite a bit better. I personally don't pay much attention to the thickness. I would just focus on the sounding and if there is enough moisture in the snow growth area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Here's the meso-high that Robert said in his blog that we needed for snow east of the mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 JB just Tweeted: Well what have we here. As per Weatherbell posts and tweets, Euro now says another snow Texas to mid atlantic Sunday pm to Wed am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I posted this in the other thread, but thought I would put it here too. For Tuesday AM in NC, far from an ideal setup. There is nothing at all to hold the cold air in with this setup. However, with that said, look at what happened just yesterday morning. There were some flakes out into parts of the NW piedmont with the lower levels hardly supportive. If the 12z GFS (and Euro now too) is a perfect prog (and most other models too), I would fully expect a period of snow with this out into the foothills and a chunk of the piedmont. How long it would last would depend on precip rates especially. If you can get this to come in prior to daybreak, you might have a little something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hey Larry, is this something thats a far bigger deal for western and middle tennessee. just looking at 500 it appears as if this dampens out toward east TN, which i would assume means the precip also peters out the further east you are. Additionally, I am guessing BNA looks like a good spot to be? TIA Most of TN is in the 0.5"+ QPFM all except the eastern 1/3 which is 0.25-0.5" of liquid. 850 0C isotherm roughly splits the state in half for the event, northern half below 0 at 850, southern half above. Northern 2/3 of GA, above roughly Macon is in the 0.25-0.5" based on 850's I would think this would be a north of ATL event, maybe confined to the N GA mountains, most of NC, excluding the mountains are in the 0.1-0.25" area, mountains of NC are - category more, and likely the best place to see measurable SN. Surprised no one has mentioned, and I know it is still early, surface temps look warm for everyone outside of elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Oh lord, Euro bringing the big guns! Please stop with the weenie posts, I am frankly getting tired of x-teen posts per page with crappy one liners. Either add something meaningful to the conversation or read more. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 . Where are you getting those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Where are you getting those maps? Weather underground wundermaps. They have 3 hour increments for the Euro up to hour 180. Click model data http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 At this point I'll take..the question is, does it become too warm as Robert mentioned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Where are you getting those maps? http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Dr. Jeff Masters creation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 AMS30721us Creation: haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Euro has north of 40 in tennessee wetbulbing to below freezing - trying to add accum totals for the 3 hour images, looks like widespread 4 inches in tennessee with local spots of 6+ This would be a heavy wet snow I'd imagine. Ground should be pretty cold after this weekend. If this verifies, it will be the biggest snow at BNA since 2003. We need this system in Middle Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Weather underground wundermaps. They have 3 hour increments for the Euro up to hour 180. Click model data http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Dr. Jeff Masters creation.... Thanks Marietta and Bing. Well to me the Euro looks very similar to the GFS for this system. Quick thump of 1-2" type of snow for far NE GA before a change over to rain. ATL is still in the hunt for a period of snow thanks to the very dry air that would help support initial flakes down to the surface. Then we have the CMC which looks too warm for pretty much all of GA except maybe Rabun County or the highest elevations. But this is still 100+ hours away with too many model runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Most of TN is in the 0.5"+ QPFM all except the eastern 1/3 which is 0.25-0.5" of liquid. 850 0C isotherm roughly splits the state in half for the event, northern half below 0 at 850, southern half above. Northern 2/3 of GA, above roughly Macon is in the 0.25-0.5" based on 850's I would think this would be a north of ATL event, maybe confined to the N GA mountains, most of NC, excluding the mountains are in the 0.1-0.25" area, mountains of NC are - category more, and likely the best place to see measurable SN. Surprised no one has mentioned, and I know it is still early, surface temps look warm for everyone outside of elevation. GFS soundings are too warm for mby just NW of ATL Unless this trends colder, which with the setup seems unlikely, this will be a mountain event for Georgia with perhaps the exception being NE sections outside the mountains. If I were in mid-north TN or the NC mountains I'd be a happy camper with what the CMC, Euro, and GFS are showing. Areas in between; extreme N. GA/AL and southern TN it's a borderline deal that could go either way quite easily imo. As for NC the system looks to weaken as it moves east so I have much less confidence in what they will get out of this. This is all verbatim off the 12Z suite and much can change in five days. I have seen this before and my fear is things trend warmer not cooler. I mean really when was the last time we had a storm five days out that trended towards more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z GFS extracted data paints .38" liquid equiv. of snow for Gainesville GA early Tuesdsay AM. GFS Model Run: 12Z 9FEB 2012 HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Low Middle High Max Min Sfc Snowfall Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds Clouds Clouds Tmp Tmp Vis in 0 02/09 12Z 33 31 335 6 0.00 0.00 547 567 2.2 -16.7 1026.0 0 CLR CLR CLR **** **** 6.0 0.0 3 02/09 15Z 40 31 33 3 0.00 0.00 547 568 1.7 -16.4 1026.5 1 CLR CLR CLR 40 32 20.0 0.0 6 02/09 18Z 48 34 155 5 0.00 0.00 548 568 1.3 -16.7 1024.6 1 CLR CLR CLR 48 32 20.0 0.0 9 02/09 21Z 50 36 182 5 0.00 0.00 548 567 0.4 -17.1 1022.7 66 CLR 219SCT238 259SCT290 50 48 20.0 0.0 12 02/10 00Z 39 35 179 4 0.00 0.00 548 567 0.8 -17.8 1022.9 51 FEW 219FEW238 264SCT311 50 39 19.5 0.0 15 02/10 03Z 36 33 185 3 0.00 0.00 548 568 0.7 -17.8 1023.7 16 049FEW054 CLR 282FEW324 39 36 14.0 0.0 18 02/10 06Z 35 32 207 2 0.00 0.00 548 567 1.4 -18.1 1023.5 51 CLR CLR 293BKN369 39 35 11.4 0.0 21 02/10 09Z 35 33 159 3 0.00 0.00 548 566 2.0 -18.6 1022.2 90 CLR CLR 290BKN366 35 34 9.8 0.0 24 02/10 12Z 37 34 157 3 0.00 0.00 547 565 2.4 -18.2 1021.6 93 CLR 204SCT238 264BKN364 37 34 7.0 0.0 27 02/10 15Z 42 37 127 3 0.01 0.00 546 564 3.2 -17.6 1021.7 100 -RA CLR 154OVC238 238OVC348 42 37 4.2 0.0 30 02/10 18Z 50 37 234 7 0.00 0.00 546 562 1.0 -18.2 1019.5 97 -RA CLR 141BKN232 245BKN345 50 37 20.0 0.0 33 02/10 21Z 50 36 230 5 0.00 0.00 546 560 2.2 -18.5 1016.3 98 -RA 104FEW116 118OVC200 245FEW324 50 49 20.0 0.0 36 02/11 00Z 44 37 280 8 0.00 0.00 545 559 -0.6 -18.5 1016.6 95 -RA 091SCT118 125BKN198 247SCT325 50 44 18.1 0.0 39 02/11 03Z 41 38 280 7 0.03 0.00 543 557 -1.2 -20.5 1017.0 98 -RA 063BKN116 128BKN235 236SCT303 44 41 3.8 0.0 42 02/11 06Z 37 35 293 10 0.00 0.00 541 554 -0.8 -21.7 1015.8 95 -RA 061SCT113 148BKN234 234BKN288 44 37 3.5 0.0 45 02/11 09Z 34 33 293 10 0.00 0.00 542 553 0.2 -19.1 1014.3 0 CLR CLR CLR 37 34 3.8 0.0 48 02/11 12Z 34 32 297 12 0.00 0.00 541 553 -2.1 -18.7 1015.5 1 023FEW043 CLR CLR 37 33 5.1 0.0 51 02/11 15Z 39 30 310 18 0.00 0.00 541 554 -4.1 -18.0 1017.2 9 027FEW052 CLR CLR 39 34 20.0 0.0 54 02/11 18Z 37 21 312 19 0.00 0.00 539 553 -6.4 -18.4 1017.8 4 029FEW051 CLR CLR 39 34 20.0 0.0 57 02/11 21Z 34 16 318 19 0.00 0.00 536 550 -9.0 -18.9 1018.9 0 CLR CLR CLR 37 34 20.0 0.0 60 02/12 00Z 24 13 317 14 0.00 0.00 532 549 -8.1 -17.6 1023.6 0 CLR CLR CLR 37 24 20.0 0.0 63 02/12 03Z 20 8 325 12 0.00 0.00 530 549 -7.0 -17.9 1026.3 0 CLR CLR CLR 24 20 20.0 0.0 66 02/12 06Z 19 6 319 8 0.00 0.00 529 549 -5.6 -19.2 1027.0 0 CLR CLR CLR 24 19 20.0 0.0 69 02/12 09Z 19 7 328 8 0.00 0.00 530 550 -4.5 -20.0 1027.3 0 CLR CLR CLR 19 19 20.0 0.0 72 02/12 12Z 20 9 319 6 0.00 0.00 531 554 -5.5 -20.8 1029.4 0 CLR CLR CLR 20 19 20.0 0.0 75 02/12 15Z 27 7 323 8 0.00 0.00 534 557 -5.0 -20.7 1030.9 0 CLR CLR CLR 27 20 20.0 0.0 78 02/12 18Z 37 3 319 7 0.00 0.00 536 558 -4.2 -19.6 1028.6 0 CLR CLR CLR 37 20 20.0 0.0 81 02/12 21Z 39 7 311 8 0.00 0.00 539 560 -2.8 -17.3 1026.2 0 CLR CLR CLR 40 37 20.0 0.0 84 02/13 00Z 29 9 317 7 0.00 0.00 542 562 -1.3 -16.8 1026.6 0 CLR CLR CLR 40 29 20.0 0.0 87 02/13 03Z 26 9 338 4 0.00 0.00 543 564 -0.6 -17.0 1027.0 0 CLR CLR CLR 29 26 20.0 0.0 90 02/13 06Z 25 8 329 3 0.00 0.00 543 564 -0.8 -16.9 1026.1 0 CLR CLR CLR 29 25 20.0 0.0 93 02/13 09Z 24 7 316 2 0.00 0.00 544 563 -0.2 -17.0 1024.9 0 CLR CLR CLR 25 24 20.0 0.0 96 02/13 12Z 23 6 271 2 0.00 0.00 543 563 -0.3 -17.5 1025.1 11 CLR CLR 259FEW295 25 23 20.0 0.0 99 02/13 15Z 35 7 245 3 0.00 0.00 543 563 -0.7 -17.6 1025.5 64 CLR 167SCT234 238BKN274 35 23 20.0 0.0 102 02/13 18Z 44 11 227 5 0.00 0.00 544 562 0.1 -18.0 1022.5 72 CLR 145BKN205 237SCT272 44 23 20.0 0.0 105 02/13 21Z 46 16 215 7 0.00 0.00 545 561 0.4 -17.9 1019.0 39 CLR 121SCT160 269FEW288 46 43 20.0 0.0 108 02/14 00Z 34 15 225 5 0.00 0.00 544 561 0.5 -18.4 1020.7 59 096FEW117 120SCT161 253SCT322 46 34 20.0 0.0 111 02/14 03Z 34 16 219 4 0.00 0.00 544 561 -0.7 -18.9 1020.6 83 098FEW116 132BKN197 241BKN317 36 32 20.0 0.0 114 02/14 06Z 35 21 162 4 0.04 0.00 543 559 -2.0 -19.3 1019.8 91 -SN 069SCT117 130BKN213 238BKN320 36 32 20.0 0.0 117 02/14 09Z 34 25 102 5 0.05 0.00 543 558 -2.4 -19.0 1018.0 100 -SN 053BKN117 121BKN229 236BKN314 35 34 20.0 0.2 120 02/14 12Z 32 30 66 7 0.29 0.00 544 559 -0.3 -20.1 1018.0 100 SN 043BKN118 119BKN233 236OVC311 35 32 0.5 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z GFS extracted data paints .38" liquid equiv. of snow for Gainesville GA early Tuesdsay AM. Where did this table come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Any chance this could develop into an ice storm? Seems that high pressure could setup shop off the east coast and create a nice CAD event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS soundings are too warm for mby just NW of ATL Unless this trends colder, which with the setup seems unlikely, this will be a mountain event for Georgia with perhaps the exception being NE sections outside the mountains. If I were in mid-north TN or the NC mountains I'd be a happy camper with what the CMC, Euro, and GFS are showing. Areas in between; extreme N. GA/AL and southern TN it's a borderline deal that could go either way quite easily imo. As for NC the system looks to weaken as it moves east so I have much less confidence in what they will get out of this. This is all verbatim off the 12Z suite and much can change in five days. I have seen this before and my fear is things trend warmer not cooler. I mean really when was the last time we had a storm five days out that trended towards more snow? How about Christmas 2010? Nothing on the GFS model for 3-5 days out and then BOOM! A lot of people were caught unawares by that storm. (Of course, not on this board, but people solely listening to mainstream media.) Waking up Christmas morning in Asheville and checking the board, I knew we were in for a special treat, yet my in-laws didn't believe me at all. The Citizen-Times paper for that morning mentioned the possibility of a novelty snow event for the day. (They were working off the previous day's info, and they did not keep up to pace with the system.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 GFS soundings are too warm for mby just NW of ATL Unless this trends colder, which with the setup seems unlikely, this will be a mountain event for Georgia with perhaps the exception being NE sections outside the mountains. If I were in mid-north TN or the NC mountains I'd be a happy camper with what the CMC, Euro, and GFS are showing. Areas in between; extreme N. GA/AL and southern TN it's a borderline deal that could go either way quite easily imo. As for NC the system looks to weaken as it moves east so I have much less confidence in what they will get out of this. This is all verbatim off the 12Z suite and much can change in five days. I have seen this before and my fear is things trend warmer not cooler. I mean really when was the last time we had a storm five days out that trended towards more snow? It will be close but timing (mostly overnight into the early AM) and evap cooling are working in our favor, especially north of the perimeter. True the heviest snow will be north of us, but at least we have a shot (you more than me) of seeing maybe an inch if the stars align correctly. I may take a road trip early Tues up north to get into the better area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z GFS extracted data paints .38" liquid equiv. of snow for Gainesville GA early Tuesdsay AM. GFS Model Run: 12Z 9FEB 2012 HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Low Middle High Max Min Sfc Snowfall Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds Clouds Clouds Tmp Tmp Vis in 0 02/09 12Z 33 31 335 6 0.00 0.00 547 567 2.2 -16.7 1026.0 0 CLR CLR CLR **** **** 6.0 0.0 3 02/09 15Z 40 31 33 3 0.00 0.00 547 568 1.7 -16.4 1026.5 1 CLR CLR CLR 40 32 20.0 0.0 6 02/09 18Z 48 34 155 5 0.00 0.00 548 568 1.3 -16.7 1024.6 1 CLR CLR CLR 48 32 20.0 0.0 9 02/09 21Z 50 36 182 5 0.00 0.00 548 567 0.4 -17.1 1022.7 66 CLR 219SCT238 259SCT290 50 48 20.0 0.0 12 02/10 00Z 39 35 179 4 0.00 0.00 548 567 0.8 -17.8 1022.9 51 FEW 219FEW238 264SCT311 50 39 19.5 0.0 15 02/10 03Z 36 33 185 3 0.00 0.00 548 568 0.7 -17.8 1023.7 16 049FEW054 CLR 282FEW324 39 36 14.0 0.0 18 02/10 06Z 35 32 207 2 0.00 0.00 548 567 1.4 -18.1 1023.5 51 CLR CLR 293BKN369 39 35 11.4 0.0 21 02/10 09Z 35 33 159 3 0.00 0.00 548 566 2.0 -18.6 1022.2 90 CLR CLR 290BKN366 35 34 9.8 0.0 24 02/10 12Z 37 34 157 3 0.00 0.00 547 565 2.4 -18.2 1021.6 93 CLR 204SCT238 264BKN364 37 34 7.0 0.0 27 02/10 15Z 42 37 127 3 0.01 0.00 546 564 3.2 -17.6 1021.7 100 -RA CLR 154OVC238 238OVC348 42 37 4.2 0.0 30 02/10 18Z 50 37 234 7 0.00 0.00 546 562 1.0 -18.2 1019.5 97 -RA CLR 141BKN232 245BKN345 50 37 20.0 0.0 33 02/10 21Z 50 36 230 5 0.00 0.00 546 560 2.2 -18.5 1016.3 98 -RA 104FEW116 118OVC200 245FEW324 50 49 20.0 0.0 36 02/11 00Z 44 37 280 8 0.00 0.00 545 559 -0.6 -18.5 1016.6 95 -RA 091SCT118 125BKN198 247SCT325 50 44 18.1 0.0 39 02/11 03Z 41 38 280 7 0.03 0.00 543 557 -1.2 -20.5 1017.0 98 -RA 063BKN116 128BKN235 236SCT303 44 41 3.8 0.0 42 02/11 06Z 37 35 293 10 0.00 0.00 541 554 -0.8 -21.7 1015.8 95 -RA 061SCT113 148BKN234 234BKN288 44 37 3.5 0.0 45 02/11 09Z 34 33 293 10 0.00 0.00 542 553 0.2 -19.1 1014.3 0 CLR CLR CLR 37 34 3.8 0.0 48 02/11 12Z 34 32 297 12 0.00 0.00 541 553 -2.1 -18.7 1015.5 1 023FEW043 CLR CLR 37 33 5.1 0.0 51 02/11 15Z 39 30 310 18 0.00 0.00 541 554 -4.1 -18.0 1017.2 9 027FEW052 CLR CLR 39 34 20.0 0.0 54 02/11 18Z 37 21 312 19 0.00 0.00 539 553 -6.4 -18.4 1017.8 4 029FEW051 CLR CLR 39 34 20.0 0.0 57 02/11 21Z 34 16 318 19 0.00 0.00 536 550 -9.0 -18.9 1018.9 0 CLR CLR CLR 37 34 20.0 0.0 60 02/12 00Z 24 13 317 14 0.00 0.00 532 549 -8.1 -17.6 1023.6 0 CLR CLR CLR 37 24 20.0 0.0 63 02/12 03Z 20 8 325 12 0.00 0.00 530 549 -7.0 -17.9 1026.3 0 CLR CLR CLR 24 20 20.0 0.0 66 02/12 06Z 19 6 319 8 0.00 0.00 529 549 -5.6 -19.2 1027.0 0 CLR CLR CLR 24 19 20.0 0.0 69 02/12 09Z 19 7 328 8 0.00 0.00 530 550 -4.5 -20.0 1027.3 0 CLR CLR CLR 19 19 20.0 0.0 72 02/12 12Z 20 9 319 6 0.00 0.00 531 554 -5.5 -20.8 1029.4 0 CLR CLR CLR 20 19 20.0 0.0 75 02/12 15Z 27 7 323 8 0.00 0.00 534 557 -5.0 -20.7 1030.9 0 CLR CLR CLR 27 20 20.0 0.0 78 02/12 18Z 37 3 319 7 0.00 0.00 536 558 -4.2 -19.6 1028.6 0 CLR CLR CLR 37 20 20.0 0.0 81 02/12 21Z 39 7 311 8 0.00 0.00 539 560 -2.8 -17.3 1026.2 0 CLR CLR CLR 40 37 20.0 0.0 84 02/13 00Z 29 9 317 7 0.00 0.00 542 562 -1.3 -16.8 1026.6 0 CLR CLR CLR 40 29 20.0 0.0 87 02/13 03Z 26 9 338 4 0.00 0.00 543 564 -0.6 -17.0 1027.0 0 CLR CLR CLR 29 26 20.0 0.0 90 02/13 06Z 25 8 329 3 0.00 0.00 543 564 -0.8 -16.9 1026.1 0 CLR CLR CLR 29 25 20.0 0.0 93 02/13 09Z 24 7 316 2 0.00 0.00 544 563 -0.2 -17.0 1024.9 0 CLR CLR CLR 25 24 20.0 0.0 96 02/13 12Z 23 6 271 2 0.00 0.00 543 563 -0.3 -17.5 1025.1 11 CLR CLR 259FEW295 25 23 20.0 0.0 99 02/13 15Z 35 7 245 3 0.00 0.00 543 563 -0.7 -17.6 1025.5 64 CLR 167SCT234 238BKN274 35 23 20.0 0.0 102 02/13 18Z 44 11 227 5 0.00 0.00 544 562 0.1 -18.0 1022.5 72 CLR 145BKN205 237SCT272 44 23 20.0 0.0 105 02/13 21Z 46 16 215 7 0.00 0.00 545 561 0.4 -17.9 1019.0 39 CLR 121SCT160 269FEW288 46 43 20.0 0.0 108 02/14 00Z 34 15 225 5 0.00 0.00 544 561 0.5 -18.4 1020.7 59 096FEW117 120SCT161 253SCT322 46 34 20.0 0.0 111 02/14 03Z 34 16 219 4 0.00 0.00 544 561 -0.7 -18.9 1020.6 83 098FEW116 132BKN197 241BKN317 36 32 20.0 0.0 114 02/14 06Z 35 21 162 4 0.04 0.00 543 559 -2.0 -19.3 1019.8 91 -SN 069SCT117 130BKN213 238BKN320 36 32 20.0 0.0 117 02/14 09Z 34 25 102 5 0.05 0.00 543 558 -2.4 -19.0 1018.0 100 -SN 053BKN117 121BKN229 236BKN314 35 34 20.0 0.2 120 02/14 12Z 32 30 66 7 0.29 0.00 544 559 -0.3 -20.1 1018.0 100 SN 043BKN118 119BKN233 236OVC311 35 32 0.5 1.5 Can you get this for me for KDNN or a link? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Any chance this could develop into an ice storm? Seems that high pressure could setup shop off the east coast and create a nice CAD event. I don't think so. You need the High to be in a place like NY. An offshore high will place the SE in return flow (warmer SW winds). You need to be on the front side of the high or have it directly north of you for the winds to come from the NE and dam down the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 How about Christmas 2010? Nothing on the GFS model for 3-5 days out and then BOOM! A lot of people were caught unawares by that storm. (Of course, not on this board, but people solely listening to mainstream media.) Waking up Christmas morning in Asheville and checking the board, I knew we were in for a special treat, yet my in-laws didn't believe me at all. The Citizen-Times paper for that morning mentioned the possibility of a novelty snow event for the day. (They were working off the previous day's info, and they did not keep up to pace with the system.) I was thinking the same think. I wouldn't take the models as truth until at least 48 hours out. Usually if it shows a big system more than that far in advance, it weakens. And sometimes the opposite is true, and it actually gets bigger on the models a day or two out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 How about Christmas 2010? Nothing on the GFS model for 3-5 days out and then BOOM! A lot of people were caught unawares by that storm. (Of course, not on this board, but people solely listening to mainstream media.) Waking up Christmas morning in Asheville and checking the board, I knew we were in for a special treat, yet my in-laws didn't believe me at all. The Citizen-Times paper for that morning mentioned the possibility of a novelty snow event for the day. (They were working off the previous day's info, and they did not keep up to pace with the system.) I thought the Christmas storm ended up being weaker than progged. Didn't the Euro at one point show a bomb? If your post is right then I stand corrected. But in general I have seen totals decrease as time goes on. It's not a scientific thing it's just the feel I get from the models usually when we are looking at a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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