40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I'm hopeful for a weak el Nino for the first season since '04-'05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I'll give my first guess in summer. Squirrels will never be used again...lying bastards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 I'll give my first guess in summer. Squirrels will never be used again...lying bastards. No way we have consecutive duds in this global regime....let ma nature purge it from her system now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I'm spending the rest of winter in here. What are those long range models showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 No way we have consecutive duds in this global regime....let ma nature purge it from her system now. I bet we get BF with a crappy spring. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 I bet we get BF with a crappy spring. lol You laugh, but there isn't much doubt in my mind tha the NAO plunges in April-May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 El Nino season, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 You laugh, but there isn't much doubt in my mind tha the NAO plunges in April-May. 35-40" for you next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 back-to-back duds El Nino, +QBO, active sun give up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 You laugh, but there isn't much doubt in my mind tha the NAO plunges in April-May. Late season birch benders? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 No way we have consecutive duds in this global regime....let ma nature purge it from her system now. Why can't there be back-to-back duds? I'm asking in a serious way, not trying to be a d*ck. What global regime are we talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 back-to-back duds El Nino, +QBO, active sun give up now Kind of like '77-'78, '69-'70 and '57-'58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Kind of like '77-'78, '69-'70 and '57-'58. Some excellent winters there which need no introduction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You can say that again, Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Some excellent winters there which need no introduction... 57-58 was the third snowiest winter in Dobbs Ferry with 80"... Also a monster winter for interior PA with the Feb KU and the twin March storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the opposite of what happens in japan one winter happens here the next right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 No way we have consecutive duds in this global regime....let ma nature purge it from her system now. Don't speak too soon. 1931-32 and 1932-33 were back-to-back duds up in Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Even if El Niño winters are warm (+NAO, +AO, etc.), I rarely find them boring compared to warm La Niña winters due to the active subtropical jet in Niño years. If we have an active STJ, the chances for EC cyclogenesis are generally enhanced, thereby increasing are odds of getting something, even if it's some weird hybrid storm like 12/24/94. Even if the pattern is warm and stormy, we can still find a way to get some big synoptic snows, especially in the interior. The general lack of storminess this winter is driving me crazy, more than the warmth is. Warm and wet winters are definitely better IMO than warm and dry winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Even if El Niño winters are warm (+NAO, +AO, etc.), I rarely find them boring compared to warm La Niña winters due to the active subtropical jet in Niño years. If we have an active STJ, the chances for EC cyclogenesis are generally enhanced, thereby increasing are odds of getting something, even if it's some weird hybrid storm like 12/24/94. Even if the pattern is warm and stormy, we can still find a way to get some big synoptic snows, especially in the interior. The general lack of storminess this winter is driving me crazy, more than the warmth is. Warm and wet winters are definitely better IMO than warm and dry winters. We've certainly had our awful Ninos too that were boring...'91-'92 is one...'94-'95 outside of the 12/23 hybrid and 2/4 storm was like watching paint dry. But I'd probably agree that bad Ninas are even worse...'88-'89 was horrendous for good action...same with some of those mid 80s bad La Ninas. '98-'99 was pretty terrible until the end of February and March when we finally got active. 1997-1998 was a torching El Nino, but I have to say that it was rarely boring...there was always something that seemed like a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 We've certainly had our awful Ninos too that were boring...'91-'92 is one...'94-'95 outside of the 12/23 hybrid and 2/4 storm was like watching paint dry. But I'd probably agree that bad Ninas are even worse...'88-'89 was horrendous for good action...same with some of those mid 80s bad La Ninas. '98-'99 was pretty terrible until the end of February and March when we finally got active. 1997-1998 was a torching El Nino, but I have to say that it was rarely boring...there was always something that seemed like a threat. I was talking very generally. This goes to show that there are many other factors to consider besides ENSO such as AO/NAO, EPO, MJO, etc. These factors often have a bigger overall impact on our weather than ENSO. Which one plays the biggest role in our weather show is a matter of debate and probably changes from year to year depending on the relative strength and positioning of each. This is why we have some Niño winters that are good ('77-'78, '02-'03, and '09-'10 if we had some better luck) and some that are bad ('91-'92, '94-95', etc.). On the contrary, we have some Niña winters that are good ('95-'96, '00-'01, '10-'11, etc.) and some that are bad ('88-'89, '99-'00, and of course '11-'12). It's all in the teleconnections... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I was talking very generally. This goes to show that there are many other factors to consider besides ENSO such as AO/NAO, EPO, MJO, etc. These factors often have a bigger overall impact on our weather than ENSO. Which one plays the biggest role in our weather show is a matter of debate and probably changes from year to year depending on the relative strength and positioning of each. This is why we have some Niño winters that are good ('77-'78, '02-'03, and '09-'10 if we had some better luck) and some that are bad ('91-'92, '94-95', etc.). On the contrary, we have some Niña winters that are good ('95-'96, '00-'01, '10-'11, etc.) and some that are bad ('88-'89, '99-'00, and of course '11-'12). It's all in the teleconnections... I made a post a couple years back that basically showed no splits for Nina vs Nino in terms of snowfall at the major SNE stations...further south., the splits start favoring El Nino...and heavily toward El Nino down in DC/BWI area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 We've certainly had our awful Ninos too that were boring...'91-'92 is one...'94-'95 outside of the 12/23 hybrid and 2/4 storm was like watching paint dry. But I'd probably agree that bad Ninas are even worse...'88-'89 was horrendous for good action...same with some of those mid 80s bad La Ninas. '98-'99 was pretty terrible until the end of February and March when we finally got active. 1997-1998 was a torching El Nino, but I have to say that it was rarely boring...there was always something that seemed like a threat. I remember severe storms over Boston a few evenings prior to NYD in 1997...agree that it was far from boring. Ninos typically are more fun but I think this years biggest problem was the fact second year Ninas tend to be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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