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January 27-28 Clipper


wisconsinwx

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The Hype monsters at Quad Ciites are not to impressed yet

MODEL QPF RANGES

FROM 0.30 HUNDREDTHS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20...TO AROUND 0.20 HUNDREDTHS

ALONG I80 WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST HPC WWD

GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF

HIGHWAY 20. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT

FALLS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I80 WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND

SNOW WITH RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

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LOT's thoughts:

FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM

ORIGINATING IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE

GUIDANCE SEEMS CONSTANT THAT THE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN

PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING AND BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY

MORNING...THE LATEST MODELS ARE HINTING THIS COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW

MIX EVENT INSTEAD OF A PURELY SNOW EVENT. THAT BEING SAID...MODEL

SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WILL HAVE SURFACE

TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WITH TEMPS REMAINING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW

FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WITH LARGE OMEGA VALUES THROUGH THE

DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ)...SFC-850HPA FRONTOGENESIS...AND THE

ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL THE SURFACE...THINKING THE SYSTEM

WILL BE A SNOW EVENT WITH LARGE DENDRITES POSSIBLE AT FIRST. GIVEN

THE TEMP TRENDS WOULD EXPECT A WET SNOW AT FIRST SLOWLY

TRANSITIONING TO A DRIER SNOW NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT. FOR A

FIRST GUESS TOTAL SNOWFALL...MINOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES

ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE TO NOW SNOW

ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE SYSTEM TO

WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY IF THE MODELS KEEP

SHIFTING THE AXIS OF BEST FORCING SOUTHWARD AND IF THE HINTS AT

BETTER FORCING AKA MORE SNOW CONTINUE.

little unclear if they are thinking models are showing a mix or trending towards more snow.

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I would say that a general 1-3" can be expected in the "hardest hit" areas. Models are not in complete agreement on when and where this band will set up. The darkest blue on the map indicates the most likely area of 1-3". Lake enhancement will likely occur in western Michigan either way.

more at: http://midwestweathe...k.blogspot.com/

post-7560-0-63234700-1327530006.jpg

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MKE has Snow Likely and 1-2 inches accums in their zone forecasts now! thmbup.gif

My forecast calls for a 50% chance of snow for Friday night. Snow coming in after 3pm Friday. High's in the mid 30s during the day, then falling to around 20° at night. This would be a mainly snow event for the northern areas of the Chicago metro.

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