Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Perhaps the first legit chance for a region wide light snow cover.Temperatures have begun to fall in response to Arctic air slowly bleeding in to our area. Watching closely the ULL which provided RIC with a surprise 2 inch fall this AM, as it is rotating under us there is a chance a LP forms allowing for moisture to get slung back tonight and tomorrow leading to a prolonged light snow event with accumulations possible down to the CP, accumulations could range from a dusting to 2 inches, hopefully a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Just a little something will make my day. At this point I can't completely tune winter out for the year, but when I see people in F*cking Virginia picking up 5 + inches of snow, all I can do is face plam it and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Potential OES southwest flow event for Nantucket and the Outer Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Potential OES southwest flow event for Nantucket and the Outer Cape? I think winds are too westerly. Probably one of those deals where snow showers are showing up on radar south of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Well, if nothing else the Davis snow icon is on. 36.3/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Threat looks less "impressive" than it did the past few days...we see the vortmax retrograde more west rather than southwest down the coast of Maine...so that will keep any snow showers more disorganized down here vs a band of steadier snow. Should still be some snow around, but it will likely be flurries and occasional snow showers with the exception of the upslope regions of VT and to a lesser extent the W slopes in Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Threat looks less "impressive" than it did the past few days...we see the vortmax retrograde more west rather than southwest down the coast of Maine...so that will keep any snow showers more disorganized down here vs a band of steadier snow. Should still be some snow around, but it will likely be flurries and occasional snow showers with the exception of the upslope regions of VT and to a lesser extent the W slopes in Berkshires. Bummer. 36.2/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Potential OES southwest flow event for Nantucket and the Outer Cape? i was looking at this earlier today and the NAM actually looks OK. the GFS not as much. it doesn't happen very often but this has a slightly better set-up than last week. some limiting issues might be inversion height and lots of speed shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Bummer Phil. We have the 850mb temps around -12C to -15C so the delta Ts will be there, but wind direction and inversion height will have a lot to do with this potential. NAM always seems more optimistic in the 60-84 hour range then the 0-60 hour range. I wonder why? GFS seems to have better idea on this, although the 12z GEFS mean shows a further northward track then the 00z and 06z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Bummer Phil. We have the 850mb temps around -12C to -15C so the delta Ts will be there, but wind direction and inversion height will have a lot to do with this potential. NAM always seems more optimistic in the 60-84 hour range then the 0-60 hour range. I wonder why? GFS seems to have better idea on this, although the 12z GEFS mean shows a further northward track then the 00z and 06z runs. well i'm looking specifically at tomorrow morning re: oes. some of the parameters we need are there. i didn't look much at the clipper other than noticing a few sref and gfs members scrape the region with precip. given the op models are south though, i don't see much chance from that mid-late week clipper. very dry and suppressing flow for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 RUC shows some love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 18z NAM wants to bring some precip into the Cape and Islands around hour 18 through 30. Although still offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 18z NAM wants to bring some of the western edge of the comma head precip into ME and maybe into the GOM as storm retrogrades westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 BTV's take on the time period mentioned in the thread title... game on (again). .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 152 PM EST MONDAY...NO HUGE CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE A SEMI- PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCKED INTO PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. WITHIN THE TROUGH PATTERN, IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN, DEVELOP INTO STRONGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS AND THEN GET KICKED OUT A COUPLE OF DAYS LATER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES IN. IN THE END, IT WILL MEAN FOR US AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY, SEASONABLY COLD, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DAY AFTER DAY. HUNG CLOSE TO GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS - WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO LOOKING AT 30-40% POPS EACH DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, THOUGH HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND CLOSER TO 20% IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. LOW/MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL ENSURE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE DAY AFTER DAY. I`LL BE THE FIRST TO ADMIT THAT PERHAPS 100% POPS SHOULD BE PAINTED IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN EACH DAY, BUT COULDN`T QUITE DO IT THIS FAR OUT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SCENARIO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIME OR TWO OF A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS THOSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS SPIN UP AND AFFECT THE AREA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO STREAM INTO NORTHERN NY AT TIMES. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THOSE PARTICULAR SITUATIONS IS WAY TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT. REGARDLESS, WITH THIS KIND OF PATTERN, I EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FAVORED WEST/NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES FOR THE PERIOD. YES, WE AGAIN MAY MEASURE IN FEET IN SOME HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LIKE MT MANSFIELD AND JAY PEAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 freak looking awesome for you guys, how much at the stake today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 with model support from the RUC and the latest nam (18z) some areas of southern and especially Central and NNE should experience significant precipitation occuring overnite and thru morning. with the highest precip totals appearing in the greens as well as the white's of Vt and Nh respectively. Currently there is a persistant area of showers bewteen i-91 and 190 in central mass which extend up to monad's. Some of these echos are 30-35dbz in nature and with dewpoints falling around 3f /hr over last 2 hours some mixing and snow is likely to occur here as the evening wears on. There is a n-s elongated 985mb LP area centered around the Blackstone, Ma -Cumberland, Ri area which is slowly moving. This is NOT forecast to be a high impact system for the region. But it still bears watching and is a now cast event. looks like the gardner ....winchendon....area could get in on the fun by 7 pm tonite as areas by royalston are already 38/34 and dropping quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 with model support from the RUC and the latest nam (18z) some areas of southern and especially Central and NNE should experience significant precipitation occuring overnite and thru morning. with the highest precip totals appearing in the greens as well as the white's of Vt and Nh respectively. Currently there is a persistant area of showers bewteen i-91 and 190 in central mass which extend up to monad's. Some of these echos are 30-35dbz in nature and with dewpoints falling around 3f /hr over last 2 hours some mixing and snow is likely to occur here as the evening wears on. There is a n-s elongated 985mb LP area centered around the Blackstone, Ma -Cumberland, Ri area which is slowly moving. This is NOT forecast to be a high impact system for the region. But it still bears watching and is a now cast event. Pickles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 freak looking awesome for you guys, how much at the stake today? Not sure, didn't walk up there today. Waiting for the 6pm BTV cooperative observer report... my bet is around 20" of waterlogged snow that is currently turning into a glacier thanks to the 19F temp up there. This will now be the base we are skiing in late April. I feel really good about the chances of some snow in SNE tonight and the next couple of days... I do think someone in CT or western MA pulls a couple inches tonight. 1-3" maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 18z gfs doesnt look bad for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Pickles http://www.americanw...post__p__102908 Ginx indeed you were on top of it. i was watching it since the nam had 2 cycles yesterday throwing Qpf back in here. Just deciding to make a thread .....that separate's this from sunday's rain obs....and the upcoming threats' thread on the advice of a astute poster. pretty heavy shower cluster heading for wa wa chusett slowly thou.....and i noticed at work the moderate snow being reported out of richmond this morning (the computer blocks most internet but allows msm weather and maps ) tonite could be more fun then people give it credit for as it "flys under the radar" most have not seen a widespread inch outside of the berks and West central /SW connecticut... so we shall see....showers now poppin SSW of ORH and moving slowly ENE'ish would like a MET's take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 18z gfs doesnt look bad for tonight It's giving me .25". Eye candy, hopefully it'll play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 18z GFS gives favorable surface winds out of the ssw or sw for OES from Tomorrow morning through tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 radar starting to pop a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 somebody stuck 1-3 inches in my forecast tonight! (Don't go there Kevin, I have higher standards) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Looks like the mid level circulation may be squeezing out some light snow over western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Looks like the mid level circulation may be squeezing out some light snow over western areas. Yup..looks like a snowy nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Looks like the mid level circulation may be squeezing out some light snow over western areas. maybe some spots get some light accumulation. hills of ORH or W MA an inch or two?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 you might actually be right about tonight Yup..looks like a snowy nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 maybe some spots get some light accumulation. hills of ORH or W MA an inch or two?? I know it's in the mid levels, but I like those echoes moving east over the Berks. Could be a nice little surprise for some out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 you might actually be right about tonight Maybe 1-2 or spot 3 from NW Mass down to CT and over to NE RI border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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